4-2 or better down the stretch, including these 2 won, would likely get it done for a top 4. 11 wins in general likely gets it done, but it makes the chances a lot better if they can beat those that they're equal to, since they'd be 1-1 with each and 2-0 vs CMU, all of whom are in a tight bunch right now.
One game at a time. Win a nice one at home. Make AA your house again!