This response is spot on. P5 poaching of a good UB coach with players following Lance to Kansas, plus the transfer portal, makes it difficult to maintain any type of winning momentum. Lance's first two years were rough, including a 2-10 season his second year, with a loss to Albany. Holy Cross was ranked 10th in FCS when they played Buffalo. With Buffalo still trying to gel as a team, they were ripe for an upset.
IMO, having a consistently winning coach over a long period of time is one key to winning consistently. Need proof. Look at Frank Solich's reign at Ohio. But now with the transfer portal, even that is no longer guaranteed.