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2020-21 Preseason Polls


DocCas86

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Maybe a little early - but trying to get through the initial dog days of August.  CollegesportsMadness.com has annual top 144 teams.  So far they have listed two MAC teams:

Miami (OH) - #144

Ohio - #127

They indicated that there are two more teams remaining from MAC.  Currently they are #99-Pepperdine, so two remaining teams they have ranked in top 100.  To put the preseason rankings into perspective,  I looked into how well they predict ranking.  Here are their results for the past 9 years:

image.png.d75beded396fbee3168e783a323c0f8d.png

As you can see not an exact science.  Their biggest miss was 2018-19 when they predicted us to be #74.  That said, I decided to also check how good they are at predicting order of finish in the MAC.

image.png.ad38e97c16708fd5a84c043883dbd933.png

As you can see, over the past nine years, if they predicted a team to finish first or second, the likelihood is slightly better than 50/50 (55.6%) of finishing in top 3.

 

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Here is another view on the track record of this ranking.

image.png.9fee455d056428a6e3a02d181c40d1ef.png

The fact that the blue and green bars are relatively close indicates that the site does a reasonable job of projecting ranking of the top MAC team.   However, in last five seasons, they only picked the top team once - the Bulls 2018-19 team - which was a bit of a no-brainer.  Here are write-ups for the other projected top teams over past five years.

2015-16:  Central Michigan - Predicted #61 / Actual #158:  https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/11907

2016-17:  Buffalo - Predicted #68 / Actual #122:    https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/13503

2017-18:  Western Michigan - Predicted #93 / Actual #188: https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/15011

2019-20: Toledo - Predicted #80 / Actual #152:  https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/17718

 

 

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11 hours ago, rma said:

Akron wouldn't even be a top 2 team in the D3 Middle Atlantic Conference

Barttovik has them at #189, but this is incomplete as it does not include contributions from a couple of JUCO transfers.  Akron is a hard team to predict, but I think they will be in 140 - 160  range, but definitely not top 2 in MAC. 

They have LCJ who is likely good for close to 20 ppg.  Camron Reece (SR) and Greg Tribble (SO) are returning.  They combined for ~9 ppg last year - BT has them doubling that.  You also have a couple of transfers Maishe Dailey (Iowa - 3-4 ppg) and Bryan Trimble Jr (St Johns - 2-3 ppg) that they are expecting a combined 16 ppg.  Finally they have a couple of JUCO transfers - Taylor Currie (Mott CC - averaged 24 ppg) and Jemaine Marshall (from FL Southwestern - where he averaged 10 ppg).   So a lot of new faces so I expect a lot of ups and downs and ~ 0.500  season?

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On 8/7/2020 at 8:56 AM, DocCas86 said:

Barttovik has them at #189, but this is incomplete as it does not include contributions from a couple of JUCO transfers.  Akron is a hard team to predict, but I think they will be in 140 - 160  range, but definitely not top 2 in MAC. 

They have LCJ who is likely good for close to 20 ppg.  Camron Reece (SR) and Greg Tribble (SO) are returning.  They combined for ~9 ppg last year - BT has them doubling that.  You also have a couple of transfers Maishe Dailey (Iowa - 3-4 ppg) and Bryan Trimble Jr (St Johns - 2-3 ppg) that they are expecting a combined 16 ppg.  Finally they have a couple of JUCO transfers - Taylor Currie (Mott CC - averaged 24 ppg) and Jemaine Marshall (from FL Southwestern - where he averaged 10 ppg).   So a lot of new faces so I expect a lot of ups and downs and ~ 0.500  season?

Oops, thought I was in the football forum.

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High certainty, based on opinions. Lunardi has us a 14 seed, other sites have either us or BGSU as the top team. As mentioned in another thread a while back, Akron was gutted.

Now just a matter of how high they place us. I'd imagine we will be in the next 5 slots. If we get lower than 85 then the authors have a lot of confidence. I'm curious to see how they slot us compared to Bona, Vermont, and Georgia State.

Edited by RecoveringHillbilly
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56 minutes ago, 121Merrimac said:

I am also curious about 2/3 of this, but I don’t understand the interest in Georgia State.  What am I missing out on?

Rob Lanier. I'm curious how well he leads Georgia State in comparison to how well Whitesell keeps us going strong. Plus he grabbed Joe Jones out of The Park School, out-recruiting all the Big 4 for Jones.

Edited by RecoveringHillbilly
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On 8/6/2020 at 8:50 PM, DocCas86 said:

Here is another view on the track record of this ranking.

image.png.9fee455d056428a6e3a02d181c40d1ef.png

The fact that the blue and green bars are relatively close indicates that the site does a reasonable job of projecting ranking of the top MAC team.   However, in last five seasons, they only picked the top team once - the Bulls 2018-19 team - which was a bit of a no-brainer.  Here are write-ups for the other projected top teams over past five years.

2015-16:  Central Michigan - Predicted #61 / Actual #158:  https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/11907

2016-17:  Buffalo - Predicted #68 / Actual #122:    https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/13503

2017-18:  Western Michigan - Predicted #93 / Actual #188: https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/15011

2019-20: Toledo - Predicted #80 / Actual #152:  https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/17718

 

 

Well if we are the top MAC team per this site...hope the site predictions are better this year than the previous five years.  May be we will not get to find out if they are right. 😞

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On 8/13/2020 at 2:15 PM, RecoveringHillbilly said:

Rob Lanier. I'm curious how well he leads Georgia State in comparison to how well Whitesell keeps us going strong. Plus he grabbed Joe Jones out of The Park School, out-recruiting all the Big 4 for Jones.

I'm gonna be the debbie downer here. Unless it's a blue chip player we should moved past getting excited about beating out the Big 4 for locals. 

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On 8/13/2020 at 2:15 PM, RecoveringHillbilly said:

Rob Lanier. I'm curious how well he leads Georgia State in comparison to how well Whitesell keeps us going strong. Plus he grabbed Joe Jones out of The Park School, out-recruiting all the Big 4 for Jones.

FWIW - does not look like Georgia State is going to make this list.  

Texas - Arlington (#3 in SB)- https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/18585

Little Rock (#2 in SB)- https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/18691

My guess is it will come down to Georgia St or Texas State.

 

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2 hours ago, DocCas86 said:

Hmmm not sure I see that.  Any rationale?  Also curious who are top 6.

Mac sports twitter tweeted a picture of it, no explanation or anything. Because ub at 7 doesn't make much sense

The top 6 were 

1. Bowling Green

2.Akron

3. Ball state

4. Toledo

5. Ohio

6. Kent

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