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2020-21 Preseason Polls


DocCas86

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6 minutes ago, Tee4three said:

Mac sports twitter tweeted a picture of it, no explanation or anything. Because ub at 7 doesn't make much sense

The top 6 were 

1. Bowling Green

2.Akron

3. Ball state

4. Toledo

5. Ohio

6. Kent

Every other preview I've seen has them 1st or second 

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1 hour ago, Tee4three said:

Same and thats where I would rank them myself.

In my opinion the top 3 will be ub bowling green and Ohio

I started my own composite of rankings I know of thus far - and they coincide with your judgment.  Here is a summary:

image.png.1cd821aefe8c8a4cbe9b396d53df9a4a.png

Akron would appear to be initial #4.  Based on the composite Kent State will not be in top 8 (i.e. no MAC tournament).  I guess with game on Dec 6th @Bowling Green will be a good early season read on how we stack up against them.

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CBS has UB ranked #151 nationally.  Seems fair.

They have Ohio #127 and Akron #141 ahead of UB in the MAC.  Ball State #154, BG #164, EMU #168, Toledo #169, Kent #171, NIU #191.  The other schools must've been rated below 200, because this cuts off at 200.

For projected non-conference opponents, they've got Bona at #85, Vermont at #113, and Iona at #190.  Presumably Syracuse and West Virginia are in the top 68 (not yet announced) and Canisius/Niagara below 200 (but per the News they're not playing those teams anyway?).

 

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22 minutes ago, UBlearns said:

CBS has UB ranked #151 nationally.  Seems fair.

They have Ohio #127 and Akron #141 ahead of UB in the MAC.  Ball State #154, BG #164, EMU #168, Toledo #169, Kent #171, NIU #191.  The other schools must've been rated below 200, because this cuts off at 200.

For projected non-conference opponents, they've got Bona at #85, Vermont at #113, and Iona at #190.  Presumably Syracuse and West Virginia are in the top 68 (not yet announced) and Canisius/Niagara below 200 (but per the News they're not playing those teams anyway?).

 

Kenpom's new 2020 rankings came out.  We are 122.

Ohio is 131, Toledo is 133, Akron is 142, and Bowling Green is 165.

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Updated my composite to include latest two.  Consensus on top 4 continues to be - Bowling Green, Buffalo, Ohio and Akron.   What I am getting from polls is that it will be very competitive and no team that is far and above everyone else.

As to CBS poll, ranking is similar to barttorvik.com (146).  Based on my review of barttorvik.com - I think they are underestimating contributions from Graves and Williams, so I agree more with Kenpom.com assessment of a ranking in 120's.  It will be interesting to see how much contribution they are able to get from the likes of Hardnett, Skogman, and Robinson.  Barttorvik is estimating 22 ppg from other than Graves, Mballa, Williams and Segu.  Their respective production will be key to how well the team does this year.

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28 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

Updated my composite to include latest two.  Consensus on top 4 continues to be - Bowling Green, Buffalo, Ohio and Akron.   What I am getting from polls is that it will be very competitive and no team that is far and above everyone else.

As to CBS poll, ranking is similar to barttorvik.com (146).  Based on my review of barttorvik.com - I think they are underestimating contributions from Graves and Williams, so I agree more with Kenpom.com assessment of a ranking in 120's.  It will be interesting to see how much contribution they are able to get from the likes of Hardnett, Skogman, and Robinson.  Barttorvik is estimating 22 ppg from other than Graves, Mballa, Williams and Segu.  Their respective production will be key to how well the team does this year.

Skogman is a sleeper, if he developed during his red shirt year he could be a piece that puts ub over the top

Haven't heard much about how the team/him has looked in practice recently but I know they loved him last season

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image.thumb.png.f92b8bf183163961563faa038ccd397f.png

I compiled the above from based on barttorvik.com.  This shows expected points per game from five leading scorers on each team.  Here are some of my observations:

  • Buffalo has 4th highest expected production from top 5 at 56.9, trailing Toledo (60.0), Central Michigan (58.8) and Bowling Green (58.4).  I will have to look at relative bench strength - but would think our bench matches up well with most MAC teams, so scoring wise - I expect us to be near the top in PPG.
  • Buffalo - is one of three teams (Eastern Michigan and Miami of Ohio are other two) whose top projected scorers were on the team last year.    
  • The percentage increase of the retained scorers for Buffalo is comparable to other MAC teams - Ohio has a small projected increase which seems to be understated - as BT has Preston and VDP scoring less per game than last year.  Akron, which has been mentioned as one of the top MAC teams is assumed to get about 2x points per game from Tribble and Reece which seems  a bit overstated.
  • Buffalo, Bowling Green and Ohio are not as dependent on newcomers to contribute points.  Kent State, Akron and Toledo will need significant contributions from newcomers if they are to be successful.  Akron's hopes are on transfers Maishe Dailey (10.3 points this year compared to 3.5 ppg in three years with Iowa and Bryan Trimble Jr (6.5 points this year compared to 2,7 ppg in two years with St. John's.)

The top four for BT in MAC are BG, Ohio, Buffalo and Eastern Michigan.  I do feel that it will come down to BG, Buffalo or Ohio - Akron has some uncertainty for me - as they are dependent on getting a lot of points from new sources.

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1 hour ago, Erie County said:

That's weird. Miami lost Bowman/Sibande. 

I guess its factoring that  Brown and Grant will go off this year. I really don't even see them as a threat

First thank you for looking closely at what I posted.  I looked at top 5 scorers last year and projected for this year:  Here is a breakout of returning points:

image.png.06fcc786b3ea125ca88d23d2e64d2377.png

BT is expecting big increases in production form Coleman-Lands, Grant and Jovic.

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56 minutes ago, Erie County said:

They most be. I'd assume Brown too? He's by far their best player. for them to make that kind of jump losing two of their staples, I'd expect Brown to be a 14PPG player.

ICL will be an issue. I just dont they can fill in for Sibande who was mainly their only big time threat

Brown's production is expected to go up, but only from 9.5 to 10.8, so not as big a leap.

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On 11/9/2020 at 8:05 PM, DocCas86 said:

Brown's production is expected to go up, but only from 9.5 to 10.8, so not as big a leap.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

Massey has started its composite.  Only 3 rankings, kenpom massey at 115 close to kenpom and Sonny Moore who has Buffalo at 53, which I would love but seems like a bit of an outlier.

http://sonnymoorepowerratings.com/m-basket.htm

A couple more votes for Bulls as best team in MAC.

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