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Ranking Status/Predictions


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1 minute ago, bull_trojan said:

I don't think we've eeked out wins, I think obviously WVU was worse than the final score, Marquette was better, USF we had control but didnt put away.

NIU and BG we never pulled away and lost, the others seemed like we seized control, but then kinda just coasted to a win. Akron game felt over with 10 mins remaining, but we never threw the knock out punch.

Also last night I think we were robbed by a bad backcourt call and a bad travel call late, which should have been 4 CJ FTs, which would have pushed the 6 point win that got as close to 3, to a 10 point win that never got closer than 7

Thanks for the recap regarding officiating calls as I was not able to see the game. A play or two especially at the end of a game can change the outcome and final score. Go Bulls!!!!

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Look again at the non conference teams that the Bulls have beaten. Syracuse and San Francisco are the only teams that are realistically still in the hunt for positions in the NCAAs. San Francisco needs a minor miracle, but St Francis isn’t known for providing any to college basketball teams. Syracuse is beginning the toughest part of their ACC schedule and will be lucky to survive that gauntlet. Kenpom has them going 1 - 6 from here.  Which means that for all the hoopla, the Bulls really haven’t beaten as many contenders as we all thought were there for the taking in November. Although it was great beating them all. It’s always great when you win.

After the Western Michigan game the Bulls have come back to earth. Their play has been inconsistent, maddening, and unsatisfying. Unforced turnovers, pathetic foul shooting, defensive collapses, and poor overall shooting from three - highlighted by Harris’ apparent implosion from beyond the arc - have pushed the Bulls to the brink. If they lose on Friday, I think that they will take a big hit in the rankings as well as the projected seeding. The P5 and BE bubble teams will start their creep back into the in crowd. And the Bulls will find that they are no longer an at-large team.

 

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1 hour ago, ed said:

you think we're not playing ugly?

Do you think that Michigan would've happily taken an ugly win versus a less than stellar Penn State team yesterday? Come on, we've won 8 out of MAC games (and many non-conference games) by 9 or more points. We're 21-3. What are you looking for? I don't understand how anyone can be unhappy with 21-3. No game has been perfect for us or any other team in basketball. Of course I'd love to see 24-0 winning by 50 every game, but be freaking realistic already, nobody does anything like that.

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10 minutes ago, skrabukes said:

Do you think that Michigan would've happily taken an ugly win versus a less than stellar Penn State team yesterday? Come on, we've won 8 out of MAC games (and many non-conference games) by 9 or more points. We're 21-3. What are you looking for? I don't understand how anyone can be unhappy with 21-3. No game has been perfect for us or any other team in basketball. Of course I'd love to see 24-0 winning by 50 every game, but be freaking realistic already, nobody does anything like that.

That’s comparing apples to oranges. The MAC isn’t the Big10. Penn St, as poor as its conference record is, is ranked 58th best according to kenpom! Their NET is 70. UB looks horrible just now. I’ll take any win over a loss, but unless they up their game, they can forget an at-large bid.

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3 minutes ago, squire17 said:

That’s comparing apples to oranges. The MAC isn’t the Big10. Penn St, as poor as its conference record is, is ranked 58th best according to kenpom! Their NET is 70. UB looks horrible just now. I’ll take any win over a loss, but unless they up their game, they can forget an at-large bid.

Ok, so if we were to lose to Toledo who has a 53 NET rating, we're dead. I don't understand. I mean, based on what I read here, I'm really glad we aren't like we were 10 years ago, or else we would never read a single positive thing from anyone. We're 21-3, the best we've ever been, and there are more downtrodden comments than positive ones. I'm done.

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14 minutes ago, squire17 said:

That’s comparing apples to oranges. The MAC isn’t the Big10. Penn St, as poor as its conference record is, is ranked 58th best according to kenpom! Their NET is 70. UB looks horrible just now. I’ll take any win over a loss, but unless they up their game, they can forget an at-large bid.

Squire17 you have a biased idea. Just because Penn State is in the Big10 should not mean they are better than high mid major teams. They are 9-15, 2-11 in conference, and 6-6 at home. I agree with Skrabukes that we should shout about our success and all the positives that have come from the last number of years. If you want to find fault about something how about Duke looking like crap against Louisvillleand making a big comeback the last nine minutes or so. The bottom line is you need to win your games and after the game there can be opinions on who played better and we can talk about stats. You can win ugly or with flair but the bottom line kI repeat kids to win the game. Go Bulls!!!!

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Here’s the thing: will the ninth ranked conference (per kenpom) merit two teams on selection Sunday. I say no. Buffalo is having a great season, but they are losing the luster. If they run the table in conference from here, then the MAC probably gets two - no guarantees. I know this: If they play the next seven games like the last seven, then they will have to win the MAC tourney in order to dance.

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It’s almost as if the worst thing that happened to us fans was UB getting ranked. I feel like it has us all divided. We just need to control what we can control. Look to play our game and let the rest play itself out. 

Its all pretty obvious...one more loss and we are out of the rankings possibly for good. 2 or more losses and it’s MAC tourney or bust. Which is why the Toledo game is very important. It would be a quad 1 win and solidify us in the rankings for another week. And all the nonsense talk of us not being impressive will die down. 

We’re 21-3. The sky isn’t falling yet. Hopefully it won’t fall. Can we play better...absolutely. We have a good team and good coach. We know our areas of weakness now it’s time to put it all together and get rolling. And if all hell breaks loose then we still have 3 days in March that can determine our fate.

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3 hours ago, DooleyBull06 said:

Which is why the Toledo game is very important. It would be a quad 1 win and solidify us in the rankings for another week. And all the nonsense talk of us not being impressive will die down

Not if they're still playing ugly (lousy basics, turnovers not working on d, making Shaq look like a free throw god, etc). Even if they win like that now, come tourney time, or the dance (if they make it), it's going to fall apart quick. I think that's why some (certainly me) are concerned about the ugly play.

At least earlier in the year when they had ugly games, they were consistently winning the vaunted blue collar stats. Not as much now. 

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I’m kinda in the middle here. No doubt this season has been one for the record books and our record and ranking have been a dream come true. I’ve sat/stood through so many disappointing buffalo losses throughout the years it’s amazing how much success we’re having. 

That being said I can understand some of the frustration. This team has all the pieces to be insanely good. I know the MAC is much better this year and every team is giving us their best but we just haven’t played to our potential in a while and it’s mostly due to lapses in focus. Great teams like we all know we can be know how to put a team away for good and that’s just something we haven’t been able to do the last 7 games. While I’m appreciative of all the wins I just can’t help but be nervous that this season could end way sooner than we know it could go. 

This team has the capability to make a deep run in the tourney but I just fear that our performance of late just can’t sustain our winning for much longer. I hope I’m wrong and we go out and demolish Toledo Friday and put all doubts to rest. Just...it’s possible to be appreciative and worried at the same time. As good as our record is right now there’s still a real chance we don’t even make the tournament which unfortunately could tarnish the whole season. Let’s go whoop the rockets and start playing like I know we can 

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I’ve put various thoughts out there for the drop off in the team’s play such as lack of focus, intensity, commitment to rebound, lazy defense and others. I’ve started to think that perhaps the pressure of NBA scouts being at a lot of these games may have something to do with it especially with Jeremy and Perk. Another thought it might just be the weight of expectations. Obviously all random thoughts, but whatever is standing in the way of them playing their best team ball I remain optimistic that they’ll get it together for an impressive finish to the season. Go Bulls!

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18 hours ago, John said:

Still do not understand how 21-3 is bad. Still there will always be some who want to criticize no matter what happens. All the years we were trying to be in the top tier in the MAC and here we are.Our family wants to enjoy this and hope it lasts for years to come.  Go Bulls!!!!

I'm not complaining about the result. I just think it's unrealistic to believe that you are going to win 10 more games playing this badly. The fact they are still winning is awesome. But I bet if you ask Nate Oats he'd rather not do it this way 

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1 hour ago, UB85 said:

I’ve put various thoughts out there for the drop off in the team’s play such as lack of focus, intensity, commitment to rebound, lazy defense and others. I’ve started to think that perhaps the pressure of NBA scouts being at a lot of these games may have something to do with it especially with Jeremy and Perk. Another thought it might just be the weight of expectations. Obviously all random thoughts, but whatever is standing in the way of them playing their best team ball I remain optimistic that they’ll get it together for an impressive finish to the season. Go Bulls!

I think you are right on the money. The weight of expectations and the mental side of the game can be overwhelming. The last few years we were the up and coming team and with our success last year and beating Arizona the expectations and the accolades we were getting not only local but national when these players were never in this situation can be overwhelming. It is how you handle that success and if things start to go in the other direction how are you going to respond. I would rather be talking and forming opinions about our status this way than being the team that is in the middle or lower tier of the conference. Enjoying the ride and already have our hotel reserved in Cleveland. Go Bulls!!!!

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53 minutes ago, John said:

I think you are right on the money. The weight of expectations and the mental side of the game can be overwhelming. The last few years we were the up and coming team and with our success last year and beating Arizona the expectations and the accolades we were getting not only local but national when these players were never in this situation can be overwhelming. It is how you handle that success and if things start to go in the other direction how are you going to respond. I would rather be talking and forming opinions about our status this way than being the team that is in the middle or lower tier of the conference. Enjoying the ride and already have our hotel reserved in Cleveland. Go Bulls!!!!

There other thing I've noticed Nate has been hyping seedings and particularly earning a high seed by winning. I think it was WIVB that had him mic'ed up for the pregame locker room speech before the Akron game. He referenced Dave Gavitt being at the game and the need to play well and get an impressive W. It may well be that the focus is on the forest, ie big picture, rather than the trees (details) necessary to play their best. Again just a random thought that could perhaps have something to do with their uneven play. One thing is for sure whatever it is, CJ and Caruthers have been unaffected.

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I think we're playing better this year, but shooting worse.

Last year at this point our true shooting percentage was 60.21%, this year it's 57.59%.

This year we have taken 6 more shots, and 42 more free throws than last year's team at this point. If our TSA was at last year's level we would have scored an additional 4 points a game which would probably be enough to make us 11-0.

I think some of that is just teams being charged up to play us this year, against Toledo I felt the Rockets quit before the game started, but every game after it seemed every other team came out swinging for us.

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Ed I agree with you about the ugly play. Maybe I’m just a blind optimist. We haven’t played up to our potential as a team and individually yet we are still winning. And still ranked. I agree with all you guys that our play has been ugly and bc of that there’s reason for concern. But I guess I’m hopefully we will turn the corner and rise up. Friday will be a big indication of which way we will go. Even with a loss I won’t jump ship. It’s a long season. 

That all said I agree with UB85 that maybe Jeremy is pressing bc of the scouts present at games.

Go Bulls! Just win. I don’t care how. Just come home with a win.

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1 minute ago, bull_trojan said:

I think we're playing better this year, but shooting worse.

Last year at this point our true shooting percentage was 60.21%, this year it's 57.59%.

This year we have taken 6 more shots, and 42 more free throws than last year's team at this point. If our TSA was at last year's level we would have scored an additional 4 points a game which would probably be enough to make us 11-0.

I think some of that is just teams being charged up to play us this year, against Toledo I felt the Rockets quit before the game started, but every game after it seemed every other team came out swinging for us.

The one thing that does stand out is Harris stats from last year to this year. In most cases teams would not be able to overcome when a player has a down year but our depth and other players stepping up have helped. To a lesser degree the down year by Reese of Canisius and what that has done to Canisius in a very weak MAAC. Go Bulls!!!!

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5 minutes ago, John said:

The one thing that does stand out is Harris stats from last year to this year. In most cases teams would not be able to overcome when a player has a down year but our depth and other players stepping up have helped. To a lesser degree the down year by Reese of Canisius and what that has done to Canisius in a very weak MAAC. Go Bulls!!!!

http://www.ubbulls.com/sports/mbkb/2017-18/bios/harris_jeremy_z82o

Jeremy’s offensive shooting numbers are down across the board. From FG%, 3pt% to FT%. Either he has to be more selective and move the ball more or just start making shots. We have overcome his shooting woes but no doubt with Jeremy clicking the team is that much better. 

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1 hour ago, DooleyBull06 said:

http://www.ubbulls.com/sports/mbkb/2017-18/bios/harris_jeremy_z82o

Jeremy’s offensive shooting numbers are down across the board. From FG%, 3pt% to FT%. Either he has to be more selective and move the ball more or just start making shots. We have overcome his shooting woes but no doubt with Jeremy clicking the team is that much better. 

I'm hoping it's a long con. In the NCAA the scouting report will be let harris shoot the 3. And he'll go on a tear and take us to the final four.

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Today Jay Bilas still has an article where he has UB as #12 (not a 12 seed...12 overall) and in the category of a possible Final Four team. That's pretty good from a guy who favors power conference teams. I'll say it again let's enjoy this ride and be glad they haven't peaked yet. I believe the best is yet to come.

Edited by pottier25
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