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Tyree Jackson’s future


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On 1/7/2019 at 11:45 AM, bull_trojan said:

  so I don't think you should put more stock into your last impression, vs the overall season body of work. 

I was honestly a bit so-so on his whole season performance too. There were many games when he looked similar to the end of season stuff. Felt hesitant all season. Didn't matter much as many of the wins were fairly easy. 

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So I met a dad in my town (through kids soccer) who's actually the leading Economist studying the value of NFL QBs.  He predicted that the Browns would draft Baker Mayfield over Sam Darnold based on the system of valuation that the Browns used.

It was very interesting talking to him.  Here are the things he values and many NFL teams are now stressing.

  • Metrics on passing accuracy less than X seconds (I think it was 2.something seconds, but I can't remember) from snap time
  • Big emphasis on mobility.  This I found surprising, but mobility not necessarily to gain yardage but to gain time to throw.

In the email below (this exchange is from October, not sure if it still holds), he says that if comparing Tyree to the class of 2018, he would be 8th.  So that would put him behind, 1 Darnold, 2 Rosen, 3Mayfield, 4 Allen, 5 Lamar Jackson, 6 Lauletta, 7 Rudolph.  

I think the team that drafts Jackson will be less reliant on Analytics.  Honestly, Tyree doesn't really have the analytics that NFL is looking for.  His passing efficiency and and completion percentages are not that great.  What he has is the eye test.  He's big and has a big arm.  We've seen that he can run, but I'm not sure that he's that mobile in the pocket.  He's not really agile when the pressure comes, I mean he's 6'7".

Well here's the email below

-------

Kyu,
We ran our model with his stats and you can see our methodologies
explained in very technical detail:
https://ideas.repec.org/p/geo/guwopa/gueconwpa~17-17-08.html

And less so:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/beating-nfl-drafting-qbs
https://footballmaven.io/nfldraftscout/news/best-qb-prospects-are-functionally-mobile-riVbed6uCk6QRArpZ1vQsQ/

Here is the short version:
Very few college statistics are good predictors for how a quarterback
will do going into the NFL for a range of reasons. More so, those
statistics are more variable once you introduce the different
collegiate levels of opponents (Division I vs lesser divisions as in
the case of Buffalo). While we did not find statistical significance
for division of football played predicting stats in the NFL, it does
add variance to our predictions. In other words, we are less confident
about the predicted number (and also because we haven't seen him in a
full season this year). That being said, we agree with Kiper he is
probably in the range of 3 to 5 in terms of prospects, but I would
stress there is uncertainty on that estimate because of the division
and we haven't seen him play all the games that scouts will have seen
come draft time. Also, you might wonder how his predicted value would
have done in this years draft...he would have been 8th.

My opinion, he should stay for his senior year since games started
does predict well positively to the NFL.

Regards,
Alex

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On 1/10/2019 at 7:23 AM, admin said:

So I met a dad in my town (through kids soccer) who's actually the leading Economist studying the value of NFL QBs...  

Eh. The leading economist studying this for... what? I can't seem to find any info on him doing this work, other than this one working paper. I.e. he did a set of statistical regressions. Doesn't really tell you much in terms of predicting success or value to franchises unless there is some additional info...

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  • 2 weeks later...

I was listening to the Locked on Giants podcast where they were previewing the senior bowl and talking about the practices this week. They had Emory Hunt on who said he thinks Tyree has been the best QB there. Hopefully NFL teams feel the same.

Edited by SGBull
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  • 1 month later...

Looks like Tyree might be having a rough combine.

https://sports.yahoo.com/why-the-nfl-combine-is-buzzing-over-a-hardthrowing-qb-whos-messing-up-peoples-money-224434463.html

I said this when watching games.  He needs to not throw so hard on those short throws.  Problem is that I don't think he knows how to mix speeds with accuracy on throws.  He just knows how to throw hard.

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He had a great combine physically, but we all know he is a great athlete.  It's the throwing that everyone really needs to evaluate. Once Steve Smith intervened,  Tyree threw a softer ball in the gauntlet drill.  But then in another drill that required a long ball, he underthrew guys a couple times.  So not sure how much that jerk Steve Smith messing with Tyree's head on the field, in the middle of a drill, helped him..   There were 100 other ways to get the message to Tyree during that one drill to ease off the fastballs.  But Steve had to make it about him. 

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2 minutes ago, zigo230 said:

He had a great combine physically, but we all know he is a great athlete.  It's the throwing that everyone really needs to evaluate. Once Steve Smith intervened,  Tyree threw a softer ball in the gauntlet drill.  But then in another drill that required a long ball, he underthrew guys a couple times.  So not sure how much that jerk Steve Smith messing with Tyree's head on the field, in the middle of a drill, helped him..   There were 100 other ways to get the message to Tyree during that one drill to ease off the fastballs.  But Steve had to make it about him. 

Shocking that someone who was a prima-donna in the league (albeit a great receiver) would make it about him.

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I’m sorry but slant routes, in routes and routes across the middle (like a guantlet drill is) need to be thrown hard bc of small windows. Screw Steve Smith...receivers in the NFL have to catch rockets plain and simple and if these kids at the combine can’t catch then their stock should fall. Smith was sticking up for wide outs. Completely biased.

Also I forgot who tweeted it but scouts and NFL front office heads said Jackson’s arm while good isn’t the best they’ve seen. So for Smith to interrupt a combine get off a set and do this...he was in the wrong.

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4 hours ago, admin said:

Looks like Tyree might be having a rough combine.

https://sports.yahoo.com/why-the-nfl-combine-is-buzzing-over-a-hardthrowing-qb-whos-messing-up-peoples-money-224434463.html

I said this when watching games.  He needs to not throw so hard on those short throws.  Problem is that I don't think he knows how to mix speeds with accuracy on throws.  He just knows how to throw hard.

Wondering who he is listening to prior to the actual drills.  Does he not know how hard to throw on his own (or with help from his own advisors)?  

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https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/03/01/tyree-jackson-buffalo-nfl-draft-2019-combine

Here’s an interesting article. There is a quote from Tyree that says he’s never been exposed to certain things when it comes to refining his mechanics. Makes me question the staff at UB. Did we just let him be and win games purely on his natural talents? Or did we actually try to develop him while winning games?

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1 hour ago, verandaman said:

Is "not listening to" the same as "never been exposed to certain things"?

Plus, I'd think the team coaches use their limited instruction time to build team cohesion.  Now as an individual, the entire focus can be on self improvement.

- suggests the guy who's never played organized (foot)ball.

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23 hours ago, DooleyBull06 said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/03/01/tyree-jackson-buffalo-nfl-draft-2019-combine

Here’s an interesting article. There is a quote from Tyree that says he’s never been exposed to certain things when it comes to refining his mechanics. Makes me question the staff at UB. Did we just let him be and win games purely on his natural talents? Or did we actually try to develop him while winning games?

 

 

Interesting article.  Thanks for the link.  I especially liked this particular way of spinning some of his throwing problems:

 

Coaches who have drafted players previously with the intention of fixing their throwing motions often do so at their own peril. Jackson is one of the few who welcomes the opportunity.

“I think the exciting thing about it is, I have so much more room to learn and improve,” Jackson said. “It’s just awesome. Coming out here to train, really work on my mechanics and stuff I’ve never been exposed to is awesome. You can see an improvement I already made since I got out here in January."

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  • 5 weeks later...

Some more Tyree stuff from Profootballrumors.com

  • Buffalo quarterback Tyree Jackson recently met with both the Lions and Dolphins, tweets Tom Pelissero of NFL.com. Teams are interested in Jackson primarily due to his “rare physical traits,” per Pelissero, and the three-year starter certainly offers intriguing size at 6’7″, 245 pounds. Detroit could be searching for a developmental passer to play behind Matthew Stafford, while Miami simply needs warm bodies under center.
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  • 2 weeks later...

I still don't see why Tyree left just to get a late draft spot with mechanics he could have refined next year. Reminds me of that Bowling Green QB many years ago (right around when Big Ben got drafted) with the dreadlocks. He left 1 year early got drafted late by I think Pittsburgh and faded out quick. Name escapes me.

 

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8 hours ago, xDerekRx said:

I still don't see why Tyree left just to get a late draft spot with mechanics he could have refined next year. Reminds me of that Bowling Green QB many years ago (right around when Big Ben got drafted) with the dreadlocks. He left 1 year early got drafted late by I think Pittsburgh and faded out quick. Name escapes me.

 

It was Omar Jacobs.  Pittsburgh took him in the fifth round in 2006 and he was out of the NFL after 2007.

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