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Tyree Jackson’s future

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On 1/7/2019 at 11:45 AM, bull_trojan said:

  so I don't think you should put more stock into your last impression, vs the overall season body of work. 

I was honestly a bit so-so on his whole season performance too. There were many games when he looked similar to the end of season stuff. Felt hesitant all season. Didn't matter much as many of the wins were fairly easy. 

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So I met a dad in my town (through kids soccer) who's actually the leading Economist studying the value of NFL QBs.  He predicted that the Browns would draft Baker Mayfield over Sam Darnold based on the system of valuation that the Browns used.

It was very interesting talking to him.  Here are the things he values and many NFL teams are now stressing.

  • Metrics on passing accuracy less than X seconds (I think it was 2.something seconds, but I can't remember) from snap time
  • Big emphasis on mobility.  This I found surprising, but mobility not necessarily to gain yardage but to gain time to throw.

In the email below (this exchange is from October, not sure if it still holds), he says that if comparing Tyree to the class of 2018, he would be 8th.  So that would put him behind, 1 Darnold, 2 Rosen, 3Mayfield, 4 Allen, 5 Lamar Jackson, 6 Lauletta, 7 Rudolph.  

I think the team that drafts Jackson will be less reliant on Analytics.  Honestly, Tyree doesn't really have the analytics that NFL is looking for.  His passing efficiency and and completion percentages are not that great.  What he has is the eye test.  He's big and has a big arm.  We've seen that he can run, but I'm not sure that he's that mobile in the pocket.  He's not really agile when the pressure comes, I mean he's 6'7".

Well here's the email below

-------

Kyu,
We ran our model with his stats and you can see our methodologies
explained in very technical detail:
https://ideas.repec.org/p/geo/guwopa/gueconwpa~17-17-08.html

And less so:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/beating-nfl-drafting-qbs
https://footballmaven.io/nfldraftscout/news/best-qb-prospects-are-functionally-mobile-riVbed6uCk6QRArpZ1vQsQ/

Here is the short version:
Very few college statistics are good predictors for how a quarterback
will do going into the NFL for a range of reasons. More so, those
statistics are more variable once you introduce the different
collegiate levels of opponents (Division I vs lesser divisions as in
the case of Buffalo). While we did not find statistical significance
for division of football played predicting stats in the NFL, it does
add variance to our predictions. In other words, we are less confident
about the predicted number (and also because we haven't seen him in a
full season this year). That being said, we agree with Kiper he is
probably in the range of 3 to 5 in terms of prospects, but I would
stress there is uncertainty on that estimate because of the division
and we haven't seen him play all the games that scouts will have seen
come draft time. Also, you might wonder how his predicted value would
have done in this years draft...he would have been 8th.

My opinion, he should stay for his senior year since games started
does predict well positively to the NFL.

Regards,
Alex

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On 1/10/2019 at 7:23 AM, admin said:

So I met a dad in my town (through kids soccer) who's actually the leading Economist studying the value of NFL QBs...  

Eh. The leading economist studying this for... what? I can't seem to find any info on him doing this work, other than this one working paper. I.e. he did a set of statistical regressions. Doesn't really tell you much in terms of predicting success or value to franchises unless there is some additional info...

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