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Ultimate Nate Oats Thread - Future/Staying/Growth/Articles

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I figured we would have a long chat in here instead of game chats. 

Let's pick up the conversation on better conferences/Donors/Oats as a coach here. 

I personally think he loves it here. He makes sure to say that. My biggest point is this: anyone can recruit with a big conference/name. His job becomes so much harder in the P5 not to mention one key factor - will Power 5 teams agree with the aggressive route of growing through JUCO? It's very faux pas and only fits a certain mold.

I think Oats can build up the Gonzaga of the East and sell out 6-7k seats per game getting high major JUCO recruits and 1-2 high HS players each season. 

Athletic Article here - https://theathletic.com/762393/2019/01/16/nate-oats-future-is-tbd-but-the-buffalo-coachs-present-is-pretty-great/

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I agree this will heat up in March. And the further we advance the hotter his name becomes. As if it isn’t hot now. His stock will not be higher than it will be come March. And next year we anticipate a drop off bc how can we replace these 5 seniors. So Oats will have options. The question is does he want a middle of the pack P5 job or does he want to keep building the Gonzaga of the east.

I think when administration hired Hurley that was the sign that said we intend to make noise with the basketball program. Now they have to keep following up. And by that they have to make Oats the highest paid MAC coach. That’s the first thing that needs to be done. Then we have to do everything in our power to make UB thee destination of all MAC schools. And that means staying current with facilities and all those things that were listed in the chain of command article. 

Unlike football mid majors can win titles in basketball. Butler got to two titles games, Layola Chicago and Gonzaga made the final four. It can be done. So does it make sense to jump to let’s say Pitt, like Oats might have last year. Just look at Shaka Smart...hasn’t duplicated his success from VCU since he’s been at Texas. And we all know P5 schools lose patience quickly.

We keep growing and building we can do what Gonzaga and Villanova (nova not a blue blood program until recently) have done. And they really don’t even recruit 5 star talent. It’s only now that Wright is landing a few. And I don’t think Mark Few has ever landed one. 

Hope he stays. We’ll see. These are just a few thoughts to contribute to the topic. 

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We still need to give him a raise.  $600k is only $50k more than Saul Phillips.  I think the key to keeping him is ~$900k-$1m a year, and some form of progress on a rec facility so that the triple gym is SAs only.  It really doesn't make much sense to have the student recreation facility on the far side of campus.  In the UB2020 plan it was the plan to build it where the Commons currently is.  But if there's nothing besides a decade old plan, it isn't getting built in the near future.

Oats is a math guy.  Yes, there will be some good offers coming around, but it's a higher risk/reward situation.  Hence why he turned down an offer last year.  Stan Heath (Kent State), is sitting on a ton of money, but he's progressively fallen down to worse and worse jobs.  Stick around, he'll have a steady income like Mark Few or Gregg Marshall (though he makes bank).  Leave, you could build something somewhere else and make a shit ton of money, or fall flat and be back in the MAC East a few years later for a different team.

If he goes, he'll go after this season.  Similar to FLJ after last season.

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It isn’t just Oats. The staff is gone after this season. 

I see the assistants all getting poached by programs offering more money. 

They need about $2M more in total staff salaries every year and that is something I can’t see them doing. 

 

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38 minutes ago, rma said:

... some form of progress on a rec facility so that the triple gym is SAs only. ...

Well, -150 football, track & softball players are already about to move out.  It’s not another new groundbreaking, ribbon cutting ceremony, but I do think that the ‘football’ field house is a good start. 

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26 minutes ago, 121Merrimac said:

Well, -150 football, track & softball players are already about to move out.  It’s not another new groundbreaking, ribbon cutting ceremony, but I do think that the ‘football’ field house is a good start. 

We'll be able to move the SAs doing sprints in the AA/CFA basement halls to the triple gym!

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2 hours ago, dutchcountry7 said:

It isn’t just Oats. The staff is gone after this season. 

I see the assistants all getting poached by programs offering more money. 

They need about $2M more in total staff salaries every year and that is something I can’t see them doing. 

 

Really? I kinda thought Hodgson was the heir-apparent when Oats goes, given his WNY lineage.

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16 hours ago, DooleyBull06 said:

We keep growing and building we can do what Gonzaga and Villanova (nova not a blue blood program until recently) have done. And they really don’t even recruit 5 star talent. It’s only now that Wright is landing a few. And I don’t think Mark Few has ever landed one. 

5 star, depends on the rankings. 

https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2019/drew-timme-9785

Loaded with 4 stars though. 

https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Basketball/CompositeTeamRankings/

Edited by ed

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I agree that basketball needs its own practice facility. Is the Ed Wright gym something that Oats wants?

As for student facilities. If you haven't heard, UB is in a campaign called Boldly Buffalo to raise $650 million. Each unit has it's own priorities.

Athletics is Here: http://www.buffalo.edu/campaign/priorities-and-goals/UB-athletics.html

One of the priorities is endowing head coaching positions, which makes sense. 

Another is upgrading facilities and adding a strength and conditioning center (which the RFQ for that development was posted on NYS website).

Back to the main point, students use the Ed Wright facility and main gym. Here is Student Life campaign priorities: http://www.buffalo.edu/campaign/priorities-and-goals/student-life.html

Notice the #1 priority (according to the website) is a new wellness center that has fitness areas and courts within it. (Location between Commons and Greiner Hall, close RMA!). This will free up alumni arena (if done correctly)

Edited by BullsFan14

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11 hours ago, DooleyBull06 said:

I agree this will heat up in March. And the further we advance the hotter his name becomes. As if it isn’t hot now. His stock will not be higher than it will be come March. And next year we anticipate a drop off bc how can we replace these 5 seniors. So Oats will have options. The question is does he want a middle of the pack P5 job or does he want to keep building the Gonzaga of the east.

I think when administration hired Hurley that was the sign that said we intend to make noise with the basketball program. Now they have to keep following up. And by that they have to make Oats the highest paid MAC coach. That’s the first thing that needs to be done. Then we have to do everything in our power to make UB thee destination of all MAC schools. And that means staying current with facilities and all those things that were listed in the chain of command article. 

Unlike football mid majors can win titles in basketball. Butler got to two titles games, Layola Chicago and Gonzaga made the final four. It can be done. So does it make sense to jump to let’s say Pitt, like Oats might have last year. Just look at Shaka Smart...hasn’t duplicated his success from VCU since he’s been at Texas. And we all know P5 schools lose patience quickly.

We keep growing and building we can do what Gonzaga and Villanova (nova not a blue blood program until recently) have done. And they really don’t even recruit 5 star talent. It’s only now that Wright is landing a few. And I don’t think Mark Few has ever landed one. 

Hope he stays. We’ll see. These are just a few thoughts to contribute to the topic. 

A few thoughts....

The Gonzaga model is attractive.  If that is what someone wants to build, more power to them.  Of course, Gonzaga doesn't have to contend with have an FBS football team.

Butler getting to two title games in a row is something that, these several years later, is still leaves me shaking my head.  Man...they were a tough out.  Didn't get rattled.  Now...Butler, safely out of the confines of the Horizon League, gets to compete in a multi-bid league of the Big East.

Loyola, in my opinion, is a bit of a flash-in-the-pan.  Like VCU before them and George Mason before them.   To lump them in with Gonzaga (as is done above) is not right.  Gonzaga deserves their own classification.  In the truest sense of the word, they are now an outlier.

The Shaka Smart comp is interesting.  Texas is a high-profile job.  He is paid $3M at UT.    He has made the tournament as an at-large twice in his three years there (20-13 and 19-15).  This season they are a bubble team at the moment (10-6)...but just lost a close one @KU.   Both of Smart's tournament appearances were 1 and done, so the expectation (as, I think, is properly mention above by Dooley) is not just they are going to make the tournament, but it is to make noise and show up in a Final Four (and soon).  Rick Barnes can attest to that!

In reading the Athletic article, it does give me a little more optimism about Oats staying (and the fact the that cupboard is not bare next year...from anyone's perspective).    We'll see.

 

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5 hours ago, ed said:

Thx, sometimes people post something so outlandish I don’t bother taking the time to even respond but putting fake news to bed is important.

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12 hours ago, DooleyBull06 said:

We keep growing and building we can do what Gonzaga and Villanova (nova not a blue blood program until recently) have done. And they really don’t even recruit 5 star talent. It’s only now that Wright is landing a few. And I don’t think Mark Few has ever landed one. 

They aren't exactly good comparisons.  Spokane is a good sized city, larger than Syracuse, and there is no competition for other sports in the city.  If you want to watch sports you only have one option in the city.  Washington State is over two hours away and Eastern Washington is up the road but they play in a weak conference.

Gonzaga has landed five star recruits. 

Austin Daye was a five star recruit and he played for them over ten years ago.  https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2007/austin-daye-40580

Zach Collins was a five star recruit who they landed just two years ago.. https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2016/zach-collins-480

And they get four star recruits every year.  They are always on the cusp of getting five star recruits.

Villanova is a big money program in a major conference.  The comparison to Nova seems out of left field to me.  If DePaul started making runs to the Final Four would people really consider them a Cinderella who made it against the odds?  And Villanova has never been as bad as DePaul.

 

 

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Just to put this to bed:  Villanova is a blue blood. 

Evidence (since 1982)

Received a #1 seed in NCAA tournament:  2018, 2017, 2015, 2006.
Received a #2 seed in NCAA tournament:  2016, 2014, 2010
Received a #3 seed in NCAA tournament:  2009, 1996, 1995, 1983, 1982
 

Villanova's first Final Four was in 1939.  Their last was last year.

Maybe Villanova's blood isn't as blue as Kentucky or Duke or North Carolina, but they are certainly in the picture.

 

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4 hours ago, dutchcountry7 said:

They aren't exactly good comparisons.  Spokane is a good sized city, larger than Syracuse, and there is no competition for other sports in the city.  If you want to watch sports you only have one option in the city.  Washington State is over two hours away and Eastern Washington is up the road but they play in a weak conference.

Gonzaga has landed five star recruits. 

Austin Daye was a five star recruit and he played for them over ten years ago.  https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2007/austin-daye-40580

Zach Collins was a five star recruit who they landed just two years ago.. https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2016/zach-collins-480

And they get four star recruits every year.  They are always on the cusp of getting five star recruits.

Villanova is a big money program in a major conference.  The comparison to Nova seems out of left field to me.  If DePaul started making runs to the Final Four would people really consider them a Cinderella who made it against the odds?  And Villanova has never been as bad as DePaul.

 

 

I'm not trying to start a war here but allow me to defend myself.  The Gonzaga comparison is the best comparison hands down.  We are all making it and writers across the country are too.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2815904-could-buffalo-become-the-next-gonzaga-of-mens-college-basketball

As for referencing Gonzaga's recruiting.  Different sites have different rankings.  One might say 4 star the other 5.  So its like splitting hairs. Case in point both Collins and Daye were rated 4 stars according to 247 Sports.  And yes they get 4 and 5 stars now but that took time to build up to that level.  

https://247sports.com/player/zach-collins-58868/

https://247sports.com/player/zach-collins-58868/

As for Nova, I was speaking solely about how they aren't considered a blue blood program despite winning two titles in the last three years.  It took time for Wright to break through and finally win it all.  And even now some still don't put them on the level of a Duke or Kentucky.  Them winning isn't a Cinderella story but it wasn't common like Duke or Kentucky. 

So if we can become a perennial mid major power like Gonzaga then break through and win a title as a non blue blood that would be Nova like.  Is it a out of left field comparison, yes.  I'll admit that.  But it isn't far off. I know they are in a power conference and have resources and all that stuff that is irrelevant on the court but they are that next tier to climb to once we establish ourselves as a perennial mid major power.

Edited by DooleyBull06

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13 minutes ago, UB92 said:

Just to put this to bed:  Villanova is a blue blood. 

Evidence (since 1982)

Received a #1 seed in NCAA tournament:  2018, 2017, 2015, 2006.
Received a #2 seed in NCAA tournament:  2016, 2014, 2010
Received a #3 seed in NCAA tournament:  2009, 1996, 1995, 1983, 1982
 

Villanova's first Final Four was in 1939.  Their last was last year.

Maybe Villanova's blood isn't as blue as Kentucky or Duke or North Carolina, but they are certainly in the picture.

 

I agree 100%.  They are a blue blood now.  Wasn't the case before 2016. Before the recent title runs Wright had a reputation of never being able to win the big game. Now he runs a model program for those coaches who don't take the one and done approach.

Edited by DooleyBull06

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Just now, DooleyBull06 said:

 Wasn't the case before 2016.

Yes, they were.  If they weren't they were the nearest thing to one. They had more in common with Syracuse and UConn prior to 2016 than they did with the Buffalo of today.

 

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1 minute ago, dutchcountry7 said:

 

Yes, they were.  If they weren't they were the nearest thing to one. They had more in common with Syracuse and UConn prior to 2016 than they did with the Buffalo of today.

 

With 1 title prior to 2016 you honestly think they were a blue blood?  UConn had 4 titles before Nova got their 2nd.  I would say prior to 2016 Nova was comparable to Cuse and UConn was ahead of them both.

And yes currently we have nothing in common with Nova, agreed.  I admit my comparison was a bit of a stretch. 

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1 hour ago, DooleyBull06 said:

I'm not trying to start a war here but allow me to defend myself.  The Gonzaga comparison is the best comparison hands down.  We are all making it and writers across the country are too.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2815904-could-buffalo-become-the-next-gonzaga-of-mens-college-basketball

As for referencing Gonzaga's recruiting.  Different sites have different rankings.  One might say 4 star the other 5.  So its like splitting hairs. Case in point both Collins and Daye were rated 4 stars according to 247b Sports.  And yes they get 4 and 5 stars now but that took time to build up to that level.  

https://247sports.com/player/zach-collins-58868/

https://247sports.com/player/zach-collins-58868/

As for Nova, I was speaking solely about how they aren't considered a blue blood program despite winning two titles in the last three years.  It took time for Wright to break through and finally win it all.  And even now some still don't put them on the level of a Duke or Kentucky.  Them winning isn't a Cinderella story but it wasn't common like Duke or Kentucky. 

So if we can become a perennial mid major power like Gonzaga then break through and win a title as a non blue blood that would be Nova like.  Is it a out of left field comparison, yes.  I'll admit that.  But it isn't far off. I know they are in a power conference and have resources and all that stuff that is irrelevant on the court but they are that next tier to climb to once we establish ourselves as a perennial mid major power.

Gonzaga is not Gonzaga because they have made a lot of NCAA tournaments.  That is what made New Mexico State and other programs like them.

Trying to draw parallels between UB an Villanova is asinine. 

It is hard to put together a top-20 team.  Few do it.  Which is why we are loving this season! 

But it is even harder to do it again and again.  Even when coaches stick around they rarely repeat it. 

We hope there is no drop off after this year but the team is filled with seniors.  Five of the top-7 minutes played are coming from seniors.  That is a huge hole to fill.

Let's look back at some other programs that had great years and their coach returned:

2018 - Loyola-Chicago, Final Four.  Moser returned to coach. Not at an-large team this year.
2017 - St Mary's, spent whole season in the rankings peaking at #12 before losing second round of NCAA.  Bennett returns as head coach and they are snubbed.  Even worse this year.
2015 - Northern Iowa, spent the whole season in the rankings, peaked at #10, lost third round of NCAA. Jacobson returned and still coaches at UNI.  Has not returned to the NCAA tournament. 
2014 - Saint Louis spent most of the years in the top-20 following an NCAA bid.  Make the third round.  Returns to the school and is fired two years later after winning only 8 conference games in the two years since 2014.
2014 - San Diego State, spent the year in the top-20, peaking at #8.  Went to the third round of the NCAA.  Fisher returns but doesn't improve on this (and they were suppose to be the next Gonzaga after making the Sweet 16 in 2011).  Team is currently KenPom #147.
2013 - La Salle makes the Elite 8. Their coach returns. They never make the NCAA tournament again.  He was fired for poor performance last year.
2012 - UNLV spends the season in the rankings, peaking at #11. Makes the NCAA tournament for the second year in a row. Coach returns the following year to build on his success.  Never makes the tournamnt again. Three years later he is pushed out due to poor performance.
2011 - Richmond makes the Elite 8.  Coach returns. Has never made the NCAA tournament again.

Sometimes you just get a collection of guys together that can play.  Sometimes the stars align for a season or two.  Being able to repeat it year after year is the hard part.

The talk of being the next Gonzaga are over blown and are only going to turn people off if there is a drop off.

 

 

Edited by dutchcountry7
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3 minutes ago, dutchcountry7 said:

Gonzaga is not Gonzaga because they have made a lot of NCAA tournaments.  That is what made New Mexico State and other programs like them.

Trying to draw parallels between UB an Villanova is asinine. 

It is hard to put together a top-20 team.  Few do it.  Which is why we are loving this season! 

But it is even harder to do it again and again.  Even when coaches stick around they rarely repeat it. 

We hope there is no drop off after this year but the team is filled with seniors.  Five of the top-7 minutes played are coming from seniors.  That is a huge hole to fill.

Let's look back at some other programs that had great years and their coach returned:

2018 - Loyola-Chicago, Final Four.  Moser returned to coach. Not at an-large team this year.
2017 - St Mary's, spent whole season in the rankings peaking at #12 before losing second round of NCAA.  Bennett returns as head coach and they are snubbed.  Even worse this year.
2015 - Northern Iowa, spent the whole season in the rankings, peaked at #10, lost third round of NCAA. Jacobson returned and still coaches at UNI.  Has not returned to the NCAA tournament. 
2014 - Saint Louis spent most of the years in the top-20 following an NCAA bid.  Make the third round.  Returns to the school and is fired two years later after winning only 8 conference games in the two years since 2014.
2014 - San Diego State, spent the year in the top-20, peaking at #8.  Went to the third round of the NCAA.  Fisher returns but doesn't improve on this (and they were suppose to be the next Gonzaga after making the Sweet 16 in 2011).  Team is currently KenPom #147.
2013 - La Salle makes the Elite 8. Their coach returns. They never make the NCAA tournament again.  He was first for poor performance last year.
2012 - UNLV spends the season in the rankings, peaking at #11. Makes the NCAA tournament for the second year in a row. Coach returns the following year to build on his success.  Never makes the tournamnt again. Three years later he is pushed out due to poor performance.
2011 - Richmond makes the Elite 8.  Coach returns. Has never made the NCAA tournament again.

Sometimes you just get a collection of guys together that can play.  Sometimes the stars align for a season or two.  Being able to repeat it year after year is the hard part.

The talk of being the next Gonzaga are over blown and are only going to turn people off if there is a drop off.

 

 

Lets get over the comparison to Nova.  Again I wasn't comparing us to them.  Was simple saying we can break through as a non blue blood.

I 100% agree with you that there will be a drop off next season and that it will be hard to be a top 20 team annually.  However it is very possible for us to be thee perennial MAC power.  The team that runs the conference and gets the auto bid every year.  Isn't that like Gonzaga?  I think that's the heart of the comparison.  Mainly because when Gonzaga was on the come up they weren't ranked but they were still winning league titles and getting to the big dance.  And having some upsets while in it.  Then they became perennially ranked.  Took time.  I think that's why the comparison is drawn. And in the end it isn't about comparing but emulating and going further.  

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42 minutes ago, DooleyBull06 said:

With 1 title prior to 2016 you honestly think they were a blue blood?  UConn had 4 titles before Nova got their 2nd.  I would say prior to 2016 Nova was comparable to Cuse and UConn was ahead of them both.

And yes currently we have nothing in common with Nova, agreed.  I admit my comparison was a bit of a stretch. 

I don't care what term you label it.  Villanova was one of the premier programs in the country.  They are year in and year out a force. Everyone knew them and knew they were a program where great players went and where they could beat anyone.

Sure, you might say they were a step below Duke and Kentucky but they were in the elite tier. 

They weren't a ground up build when Wright took over. 

 

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3 minutes ago, DooleyBull06 said:

I 100% agree with you that there will be a drop off next season and that it will be hard to be a top 20 team annually.  However it is very possible for us to be thee perennial MAC power.  The team that runs the conference and gets the auto bid every year.  Isn't that like Gonzaga? 

No.

That is not what Gonzaga is.  That is what St. Mary's would be without Gonzaga in the conference.  It is what New Mexico State is.  Buffalo is already the MAC power program.  The Bulls are on the road to their fourth MAC championship in five years.

Gonzaga is a national power.  They don't measure themselves by their conference.  They don't even care about the conference championships.  (Sure, they want to win every game but they don't care about the WCC.)  It is the whole reason the conference eliminated two games.  Gonzaga wanted to play fewer conference games because they don't care about the WCC. 

Gonzaga is so much more than the team that wins the WCC. 

 

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40 minutes ago, DooleyBull06 said:

 However it is very possible for us to be thee perennial MAC power.  The team that runs the conference and gets the auto bid every year.  Isn't that like Gonzaga?  I think that's the heart of the comparison.  Mainly because when Gonzaga was on the come up they weren't ranked but they were still winning league titles and getting to the big dance.  And having some upsets while in it.  Then they became perennially ranked.  Took time.  I think that's why the comparison is drawn. And in the end it isn't about comparing but emulating and going further.  

yes, gonzaga is a conference power.  that's not what makes gonzaga special - being a conference power is nice, but not that noteworthy - that was gonzaga in the mid 90s.  what made gonzaga special starting in the late 90s was that they were a consistent, perennial threat that made a few deep runs, and that they continue to build on it. They've been in the rankings every year for almost 2 decades.  

 

 

and not that it matters, but no, villanova isn't a blue blood.  recent success doesn't automatically make you a blue blood.  blue blood means you're basketball royalty.  Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, NC. And UCLA, though they'be been trying their best not to be considered that (like Indiana did).  😄

 

Edited by ed
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2 minutes ago, ed said:

yes, gonzaga is a conference power.  that's not what makes gonzaga special - being a conference power is nice, but not that noteworthy - that was gonzaga in the mid 90s.  what made gonzaga special starting in the late 90s was that they were a consistent, perennial threat that made a few deep runs, and that they continue to build on it. 

Exaclty! It didn't happen over night.  That is my point.  The parallel is that we are currently where Gonzaga was in the 90s.  And if Oats stays we can get to where Gonzaga was in the 2000s and eventually to where they are now.  If Oats stays I feel it can happen quicker bc the landscape is different than it was then.

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14 minutes ago, DooleyBull06 said:

Exaclty! It didn't happen over night.  That is my point.  The parallel is that we are currently where Gonzaga was in the 90s. 

No.

Gonzaga made the Elite 8 in the 90s.

And the 90s are 20 years ago now...

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13 minutes ago, DooleyBull06 said:

Exaclty! It didn't happen over night.  That is my point.  The parallel is that we are currently where Gonzaga was in the 90s.  And if Oats stays we can get to where Gonzaga was in the 2000s and eventually to where they are now.  If Oats stays I feel it can happen quicker bc the landscape is different than it was then.

Many,many very good and interesting opinions. What is happening at UB is we are winning and gaining national exposure and have very good players and look like we are getting very good player prospects wanting to come here. As long as Nate hits on the incoming players our success will continue. You simply don’t win without good players with the right kind of chemistry. We just have to enjoy this ride and hope it lasts for a long, long time. Go Bulls!!!!

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