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Kevin

Ultimate Nate Oats Thread - Future/Staying/Growth/Articles

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It is not a five year extension.  It extends the existing contract until the end of the 2023 season.  If it was a five year extension Leipold would have been without a contract since earlier this year.  It is probably an extra three years on the current deal that was extended after his first season.

 

More here: http://ubfan.com/bb/index.php/topic/314-leipold-extended/&tab=comments#comment-4700

Edited by BrooklynBull

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The MAC is a football conference and UB really wants to develop a football culture.  Going all in on both is not something they can really afford to do.

I was expecting the LL raise and extension but I don't know how much more they can afford to pay Nate.

We know there is going to be a drop of in the performance next year.  On the one hand you can pay big money to try to ensure he stays but do you pay that money and then have a drop off next year where you're not selling the tickets and exposure of this year's team?  How long are you on the hook for?

It is going to be a difficult decision for the school that recently eliminated sports due to budget issues.

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Oats needs to be in the 900k range with the facilities he needs. 

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26 minutes ago, dutchcountry7 said:

The MAC is a football conference and UB really wants to develop a football culture.  Going all in on both is not something they can really afford to do.

I was expecting the LL raise and extension but I don't know how much more they can afford to pay Nate.

We know there is going to be a drop of in the performance next year.  On the one hand you can pay big money to try to ensure he stays but do you pay that money and then have a drop off next year where you're not selling the tickets and exposure of this year's team?  How long are you on the hook for?

It is going to be a difficult decision for the school that recently eliminated sports due to budget issues.

Personally I say reward excellence. Given his track record he should be paid more. UB has received tons of free advertising thanks to the basketball program. And don’t forget what when Hurley left and the disaster that followed. There was absolutely no drop off thanks to Nate and his staff. That was accomplished under far more trying circumstances. So while there could and may well be some drop off due to losing so many seniors I still think this program under Nate’s stewardship is in excellent shape. 

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24 minutes ago, UB85 said:

Personally I say reward excellence. Given his track record he should be paid more. UB has received tons of free advertising thanks to the basketball program. And don’t forget what when Hurley left and the disaster that followed. There was absolutely no drop off thanks to Nate and his staff. That was accomplished under far more trying circumstances. So while there could and may well be some drop off due to losing so many seniors I still think this program under Nate’s stewardship is in excellent shape. 

100% agreed..."this program under Nate’s stewardship is in excellent shape" is an understatement.

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On 1/18/2019 at 4:15 PM, dutchcountry7 said:

Gonzaga is not Gonzaga because they have made a lot of NCAA tournaments.  That is what made New Mexico State and other programs like them.

Trying to draw parallels between UB an Villanova is asinine. 

It is hard to put together a top-20 team.  Few do it.  Which is why we are loving this season! 

But it is even harder to do it again and again.  Even when coaches stick around they rarely repeat it. 

We hope there is no drop off after this year but the team is filled with seniors.  Five of the top-7 minutes played are coming from seniors.  That is a huge hole to fill.

Let's look back at some other programs that had great years and their coach returned:

2018 - Loyola-Chicago, Final Four.  Moser returned to coach. Not at an-large team this year.
2017 - St Mary's, spent whole season in the rankings peaking at #12 before losing second round of NCAA.  Bennett returns as head coach and they are snubbed.  Even worse this year.
2015 - Northern Iowa, spent the whole season in the rankings, peaked at #10, lost third round of NCAA. Jacobson returned and still coaches at UNI.  Has not returned to the NCAA tournament. 
2014 - Saint Louis spent most of the years in the top-20 following an NCAA bid.  Make the third round.  Returns to the school and is fired two years later after winning only 8 conference games in the two years since 2014.
2014 - San Diego State, spent the year in the top-20, peaking at #8.  Went to the third round of the NCAA.  Fisher returns but doesn't improve on this (and they were suppose to be the next Gonzaga after making the Sweet 16 in 2011).  Team is currently KenPom #147.
2013 - La Salle makes the Elite 8. Their coach returns. They never make the NCAA tournament again.  He was fired for poor performance last year.
2012 - UNLV spends the season in the rankings, peaking at #11. Makes the NCAA tournament for the second year in a row. Coach returns the following year to build on his success.  Never makes the tournamnt again. Three years later he is pushed out due to poor performance.
2011 - Richmond makes the Elite 8.  Coach returns. Has never made the NCAA tournament again.

Sometimes you just get a collection of guys together that can play.  Sometimes the stars align for a season or two.  Being able to repeat it year after year is the hard part.

The talk of being the next Gonzaga are over blown and are only going to turn people off if there is a drop off.

 

 

A very good synopsis of what happens to teams that are not the true blue blood power 5 type teams. Just so hard for so many teams at the mid major levels and below to have continued success over a long period of time. Yes you can hit on some very good players but the key is to be able to replace players and not have a drop off in play. So much is based on consistency from one year to the next, injuries and if players continue to improve. A good comparison is Harris and Reese at Canisius who are nowhere near their play from last year. Still for us it is unchartered waters and all the chatter and opinions on these type topics is a pleasure to be part of.Go Bulls!!!!!

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8 hours ago, UB85 said:

... if Lance is getting 615k should not Nate given his far superior record of success get substantially more? 

I’d like to say yes, but then I start thinking...  doesn’t football have more players and coaches and personalities to recruit and manage?   Regardless of record, maybe the job of a head FB coach is just more demanding than a head BB coach?

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On 2/5/2019 at 11:38 AM, UB85 said:

It is being reported that Lance’s contract has been extended 5 years and he’s getting paid 615k. Congrats to Lance. And I suspect that’s a good move. It does beg the question though if Lance is getting 615k should not Nate given his far superior record of success get substantially more? 

If basketball's % of total revenue|maximum revenue lines up with or is more than the % of football's total revenue|maximum revenue, I would think Nate should be getting way more and based on the team's performance, he does deserve another pay raise and an increase to existing incentives or more incentives.

I think if UB does well in the tournament, we could be seeing an off-season pay raise for Nate.

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Does anyone happen to know if there's an existing list of the head coaches in the MAC and their salaries? Curious to see who's the highest paid. 

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23 hours ago, 121Merrimac said:

I’d like to say yes, but then I start thinking...  doesn’t football have more players and coaches and personalities to recruit and manage?   Regardless of record, maybe the job of a head FB coach is just more demanding than a head BB coach?

Re-reading my comment, it sounds a touch snarky.  @UB85, it wasn't intended that way.  It was asking a legitimate question.

To counter myself, I'd say... well, the BB coach has to scout, and gameplan for more than twice the number of opponents. 

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14 hours ago, 121Merrimac said:

Re-reading my comment, it sounds a touch snarky.  @UB85, it wasn't intended that way.  It was asking a legitimate question.

To counter myself, I'd say... well, the BB coach has to scout, and gameplan for more than twice the number of opponents. 

I did not find it to be. Just another one of your well thought out comments. Personally I always enjoy what you post. But even if what you say is true I still say Nate has earned the the right to be paid more than any coach at UB.  Of course that begs the further question, what about FLJ? It was good to see ADMA get her a much deserved raise last year. 

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20 hours ago, mikescherrer8 said:

Does anyone happen to know if there's an existing list of the head coaches in the MAC and their salaries? Curious to see who's the highest paid. 

I’ve seen them posted online previously. Just do not know where to find it though. 

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4 hours ago, 121Merrimac said:

Check out the Rainbow Warriors top 25 bonus package

It's extraordinarily contingent. Still I assume it only ranks because of how bonuses are disclosed

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I'm late to this thread, but wanted to give my thoughts on some of the things you've all said.

On 1/17/2019 at 9:13 PM, Kevin said:

I personally think he loves it here. He makes sure to say that. My biggest point is this: anyone can recruit with a big conference/name. His job becomes so much harder in the P5 not to mention one key factor - will Power 5 teams agree with the aggressive route of growing through JUCO? It's very faux pas and only fits a certain mold.

I'm not sure what you mean by JUCO recruiting being faux pas? There's nothing embarrassing about it despite its outdated and inaccurate stigma--one of which is being challenged heavily with each passing year. Oats and several other current coaches have proven that there are ton of talented, high-character kids in these ranks that either a) needed a year or two to develop more, b) were severely under-recruited, or c) didn't quite have the grades in their first recruitment. 

Power 5 teams aren't going to care as long as you win and don't have players getting arrested or things like the Louisville sex scandal of 2015. Texas Tech is the leading example right now of a Power 5 team infusing top JUCO talent and having success with it. They have one of the best defenses in the nation this year and are in good shape for the future. 

On 1/17/2019 at 9:36 PM, DooleyBull06 said:

And next year we anticipate a drop off bc how can we replace these 5 seniors. 

I think it's fair to say there will be a slight drop off, but it's not as big as we all might initially think. The JUCO guys that are coming in really fit the mold of the last two years of the Oats tenure; Durey Caldwell is going to draw a ton of Jeremy Harris comparisons and Andre Allen is the newest installment in the Kadiri/McRae/Fagan saga. James Rojas is looking like to be an absolute steal of a recruit. 

Add in the senior transfers, who are flying completely under the radar, as well as the current freshmen and Jordan, and I think we'll be in really great shape. Jordan coming back is going to be huge not only for next year's record, but for Segu's development. 

On 1/17/2019 at 9:44 PM, rma said:

We still need to give him a raise.  $600k is only $50k more than Saul Phillips.  I think the key to keeping him is ~$900k-$1m a year, and some form of progress on a rec facility so that the triple gym is SAs only.  It really doesn't make much sense to have the student recreation facility on the far side of campus.  In the UB2020 plan it was the plan to build it where the Commons currently is.  But if there's nothing besides a decade old plan, it isn't getting built in the near future.

Oats' resume already warrants a 1-1.2 million a year salary and that's going to be extremely tough for UB to do. Their best bet is to extend him with as close of a number as they can get to that. If UB can get it up to 750k and raises for the assistants, the chances of retaining him are much higher--especially if his contract is loaded with incentives like in years previous.

As for the standalone practice facility. I've heard through the grapevine that UB is much closer to the building a student rec center than we think. Oats may already be in the know of what's coming down the pipe, which in return should increase odds of retaining him. UB is definitely trying and they're in much better shape to approach this sort of conversation than five years ago.

On 1/18/2019 at 9:24 AM, BullsFan14 said:

I agree that basketball needs its own practice facility. Is the Ed Wright gym something that Oats wants?

Thankfully, Oats seems incredibly understanding of the university's situation in terms of facilities. I don't think quality of the facility is a pressing matter....yet. If the triple gym was SAs only; it would be a huge benefit for both basketball teams when it comes to their development. Having to work around the rec schedules is a tough task when you've got 30ish different athletes on different class schedules. 

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2 hours ago, Reverend_Goose said:

I'm not sure what you mean by JUCO recruiting being faux pas? There's nothing embarrassing about it despite its outdated and inaccurate stigma--one of which is being challenged heavily with each passing year. Oats and several other current coaches have proven that there are ton of talented, high-character kids in these ranks that either a) needed a year or two to develop more, b) were severely under-recruited, or c) didn't quite have the grades in their first recruitment. 

Actually, you have it backwards.

The JuCo guys use to be better options.  Now the guys who need time to develop, were under-recruited, or didn't have the grades--they do a prep year at one of the basketball focused places like Jeenathan Williams did in California or they go to one of the traditional academic prep schools like those in New England and play in those leagues.

The guys that are in JuCo are more often the guys that those schools wouldn't take.  Sure, there are some guys in JUCo who transferred in from D1 programs and simply didn't want to sit out a year.  It really depends on the guy.

There are great guys of strong character in JuCo but that isn't the path for most guys in the situations you've described anymore.  You have to be very judicious with your selection of JuCo guys. Because there are actually fewer of the guy in the situation in bold in JuCo than ever before.  In the summer leagues and AAU circuit, kids get exposed to more options than ever before.  JuCo is lower down their list of options.

The biggest problem with recruiting JuCo guys is that you typically only get two years with them.  So if you have a complex system it takes them some time to get up to speed. 

Buffalo's success is dependent on the OOC schedule because the MAC is a one bid league so you need guys ready to play right out of the gate early in the season to get some national attention.  This year with all of the Seniors the team got that early attention and has been fine with your typical few losses in the MAC.  But if you are depending on key transfers who weren't with you the previous year you're going to have a slow start which really hurts the program.

 

Edited by dutchcountry7

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2 hours ago, Reverend_Goose said:

I think it's fair to say there will be a slight drop off, but it's not as big as we all might initially think. The JUCO guys that are coming in really fit the mold of the last two years of the Oats tenure; Durey Caldwell is going to draw a ton of Jeremy Harris comparisons and Andre Allen is the newest installment in the Kadiri/McRae/Fagan saga. James Rojas is looking like to be an absolute steal of a recruit. 

Add in the senior transfers, who are flying completely under the radar, as well as the current freshmen and Jordan, and I think we'll be in really great shape. Jordan coming back is going to be huge not only for next year's record, but for Segu's development. 

I hope you're right but I fear those are some blue tinted glasses you're looking through and things aren't going to go as well...

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2 hours ago, Reverend_Goose said:

Oats' resume already warrants a 1-1.2 million a year salary and that's going to be extremely tough for UB to do. Their best bet is to extend him with as close of a number as they can get to that. If UB can get it up to 750k and raises for the assistants, the chances of retaining him are much higher--especially if his contract is loaded with incentives like in years previous.

I can't see UB affording that salary.  And I expect him to get $2M offers this spring.

Raises for the assistants is going to be hard.  By the time you add in the assistants you might as well just pay Oats $1M.  Everyone at UB is underpaid.  That's the problem.  The school just doesn't have the money to pay what they should be paying. 

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20 minutes ago, Jeseph said:

PSU doesn't care about basketball - I don't see this fitting Oats' self-proclaimed requirement of continuing a tradition of winning, right away.

If they keep their commitment at the same level, you're right.  But if they decide to make a commitment, that will change.  They can afford to pay big, if they want.  The question is if they want to.

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3 minutes ago, dutchcountry7 said:

If they keep their commitment at the same level, you're right. But if they decide to make a commitment, that will change. They can afford to pay big, if they want.

The community doesn't care either, that gym is a DUNGEON (and they regularly play ranked opponents, being in the Big Ten)

An incoming coach has an uphill battle needing to face Michigan, MSU, Purdue, Indiana, Iowa and Maryland (plus or minus good seasons by OSU) every year.

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7 minutes ago, Jeseph said:

The community doesn't care either, that gym is a DUNGEON (and they regularly play ranked opponents, being in the Big Ten)

An incoming coach has an uphill battle needing to face Michigan, MSU, Purdue, Indiana, Iowa and Maryland (plus or minus good seasons by OSU) every year.

They will draw if they win.  The issue is they don't win.

 

Last year, they won the NIT.  They were a decent team.  And the fans showed out late in the season when the team showed they could compete in the Big Ten (they finished 9-9 in conference).

Attendance at their last five Big Ten home games last year:

13.5k - Rutgers

10.5k - Iowa

8.5k - Maryland

11k - Ohio State

13.5k - Michigan

That is not poor attendance by any means.  That is strong attendance.  It just looks weak because Penn State has strong attendance in every other sport.

 

Edited by dutchcountry7

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3 hours ago, dutchcountry7 said:

I can't see UB affording that salary.  And I expect him to get $2M offers this spring.

Raises for the assistants is going to be hard.  By the time you add in the assistants you might as well just pay Oats $1M.  Everyone at UB is underpaid.  That's the problem.  The school just doesn't have the money to pay what they should be paying. 

I'm anti-buyout for new coaches, but pro-buyout for established coaches for this very reason.

Your dilemma is long term financial security vs location/job security and winning.

So you have to say 9 million over the next 3 years, but possibly no Conference champs, no NCAA tourneys, and possibly fired after those 3 years. If fired, let's say you go to ASU and do the 150k associate coach thing for 7 years. Total earnings = 10,050,000 million over 10 years.

Vs. what were currently offering which is lets say a guaranteed job for the next 10 years, lots of championships and NCAA tourneys, but at 650k it would take you 10 years to make what you'd make in 2 years somewhere else. Total earnings = 6.5 million over 10  years. 

By that math, I think we should offer 923k over 10 years with no buyout if he is fired, and a healthy buyout if he leaves for another job. That way he is guaranteed that money these other schools are offering, and should only leave if he's really up for the challenge OR if he thinks UB isn't committed to winning.

923k because you'd assume a 77k bonus for winning the MAC, which should be an annual goal for us now, that would put him up to $1 million a year.

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