Jump to content
Buffalo Bulls - UB Fan Forum

At-large birth on the line


BleedBlue

Recommended Posts

Bulls will need to finish strong in conference play (2-3 losses) if they want to secure an at-large bid. The Bonnies who play in the A-10 went 14-4 in conference play last season and it almost cost them the at-large bid. Not a good loss tonight. 

Edited by BleedBlue
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The MAC is a one-bid league. There is so much parity that a loss by the Bulls in conference was a statistical certainty.  Another loss or two is highly likely, resulting in a slip out of the Top-25.  Just because Buffalo beat Syracuse who went on to beat Duke says far more about the uncertainty of game outcomes than their predictability.

The NCAA tournament is about P5 schools and automatic bids for the non-P5 conference tournament winners.  The only way non-P5 conferences can improve their stature and secure at-large bids is to schedule the P5 teams OOC and beat them. Here's what the other MAC teams attempted this season, pre-conference:

Akron lost to Clemson, Xavier, and Purdue

Ball St lost to Purdue, Alabama, and VA Tech

BGSU lost to St Johns

CMU lost to TCU

EMU lost to Duke, Rutgers, and Kansas

Kent St lost to Louisville; beat Vanderbilt and Oregon St

Miami-Oh lost to Butler and Xavier

NIU lost to Michigan St

Ohio lost to Xavier and Purdue

WMU lost to Ole Miss, Cinci, and Michigan

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, sportscliche said:

The MAC is a one-bid league. There is so much parity that a loss by the Bulls in conference was a statistical certainty.  Another loss or two is highly likely, resulting in a slip out of the Top-25.  Just because Buffalo beat Syracuse who went on to beat Duke says far more about the uncertainty of game outcomes than their predictability.

The NCAA tournament is about P5 schools and automatic bids for the non-P5 conference tournament winners.  The only way non-P5 conferences can improve their stature and secure at-large bids is to schedule the P5 teams OOC and beat them. Here's what the other MAC teams attempted this season, pre-conference:

Akron lost to Clemson, Xavier, and Purdue

Ball St lost to Purdue, Alabama, and VA Tech

BGSU lost to St Johns

CMU lost to TCU

EMU lost to Duke, Rutgers, and Kansas

Kent St lost to Louisville; beat Vanderbilt and Oregon St

Miami-Oh lost to Butler and Xavier

NIU lost to Michigan St

Ohio lost to Xavier and Purdue

WMU lost to Ole Miss, Cinci, and Michigan

Well put. And Clemson, Xavier, Oregon St, Vanderbilt, and Rutgers are on the outside looking in at this point. Butler and the Johnnies appear to be on the bubble (as are Syracuse and San Francisco). If Buffalo loses one or two more before the MAC tourney, which seems probable, they will have to win it all in Cleveland. Having said that, they have the best team in the MAC and should be able to get to the dance.

Edited by squire17
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Traditionally, the MAC is a one-bid league but that doesn't mean UB can't get an at-large bid this year. They've already racked up an impressive resume.

They're still easily on the right side of the bubble discussion. Talk to me if they lose 2-3 more games, that's when Bulls fans should start worrying.

They have 12 more regular season games and possibly three MAC Tournament games. If they go 12-3 in that stretch, they'll be 29-5 with multiple quality wins. They could possibly squeak into the tournament in that scenario. If they go 30-4 or better, they're a lock in my opinion.

But honestly, I think they'll take care of business in Cleveland so I'm not even worried about their at-large chances right now.

Edited by Big 4 Hoops Blogger
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With only 2 losses so far we still have to be considered an at large but we’re on a super short leash. 

Would love to have MAC as a two bid league this year but I’d prefer we just won the tourney. If we do I just don’t think anyone else has the resume to get an at large. If we don’t, we pray 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the Bulls won out and lost in the MAC title game or possibly in the game before dare I say, I think At large chances are better than 50/50. I think they built up some clout and people know 1 loss in the MAC would be super impressive. But we all know this comes down to conference tourney upsets. If most tournaments fall to the favorites it certainly helps.

Id say worst case scenario they can lose 1 more MAC game and lose in the title game. That would put us 29-3ish give or take a game? Bowling Green looks great right now and if they keep it up and the Bulls take 2, those end up good as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All I know is that a significantly worse UB team with no WVU, Cuse, or USF wins was the last team out of the NCAA after losing to Ohio at the buzzer. That team was 23-10 and 11-7 in the MAC.  This team has been ranked for 11 straight weeks and has a road win over a likely tournament team in Cuse that beat #1 DUke, a neutral court win over a possible at-large, San Fran, and handed WVU their first home opening loss in like 30+ years.  They've been ranked as high as #14 twice and have been projected as a #4-#6 seed much of the year by the pundits.  Provided they only lose 1 or 2 more times in the MAC but keep it close, there is almost no way they're not an at large if they slip up in the conference tournament. Their NET and KenPom are just far too strong. If they only lose 1 or 2 more games they would be going into tourney time 28-3 or 27-4.  They will be playing in the NCAA tournament.  

Edited by UBigbobby
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, BleedBlue said:

RIP national ranking and at-large bid.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again...we control our own destiny. It’s a long season. February equates to the dog days of August if you follow baseball. Just win the MAC tourney and leave nothing to chance. 3 days in March. It’s what life has been for us always. So win that and we are in. Then if we win that I feel the committee will give us a seed from 7-10. And we will be that dangerous team no one wants to see.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, DooleyBull06 said:

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again...we control our own destiny. It’s a long season. February equates to the dog days of August if you follow baseball. Just win the MAC tourney and leave nothing to chance. 3 days in March. It’s what life has been for us always. So win that and we are in. Then if we win that I feel the committee will give us a seed from 7-10. And we will be that dangerous team no one wants to see.

Pretty spot on. Its such a long season. It really matters most when you come together. Ideally like the Bulls to get rolling again by mid Feb. They've had this long stretch now of jumbled inconsistent play.

Really it just puts everything back into perspective. I think dropping out of the rankings is a real possibility now. And the at large again, I think we lost our last possible game for that. Meaning winning out and losing MAC final might still leave a shot. Again MAC season is so long, and such a grind. You're really not allowed to take a week or two off to find your cohesiveness as a team. This team is so good naturally that even when not playing the best, they still win games and when they lose, its close. No consolation but shows where the potential lies once they get that fire back.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, BleedBlue said:

RIP national ranking and at-large bid.

Way way too pessimistic. They lost two very close ones on the road to teams that treated the game like a national championship game. Woebegone BG had their largest by almost 1k last night. The fact these teams still struggled mightily on a night where we had our C game at best says that we can smoke any team provided we get Harris back on track and Perkins playing much more consistently and as he is capable. If so, we will be well above any team in the MAC. While it’s certainly easy to waver and question the team’s ability to get their swag back given our recent uneven play, I suppose it is only a natural reaction. The fact of the matter is that the coaches and players have worked way too hard for them not to get it going again. I fully expect them to do just that. 

Can’t wait till we get BG in AA. It’ll be a much different story. 

As far as at large bids and national rankings they are mere distractions. You play not to get an at large bid or to be nationally ranked. You play the game, and more importantly prepare to be the best you can be each and every day and game. The boys have done that since the summer and as a result put themselves in the national spotlight and earned the right to be in a solid position for an at large bid should they not win the MAC tourney. But we’re only 2/3 of the way through the season. So it’s one game at a time rankings, at large bids and all the other fluff be damned. These guys will get the job done. Go Bulls!!! 

Edited by UB85
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, squire17 said:

Lunardi had the Bulls as a 6 seed in the East (Duke #1) yesterday morning. Where did you see his update? Unusual for him to establish back to back Bracketologies this early in the season.

He puts out his bracketology on Tuesday and Friday, but he tweeted that we are 25th in his Saturday seed list. Which equates to a 7 seed.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, UB85 said:

Way way too pessimistic. They lost two very close ones on the road to teams that treated the game like a national championship game. Woebegone BG had their largest by almost 1k last night. The fact these teams still struggled mightily on a night where we had our C game at best says that we can smoke any team provided we get Harris back on track and Perkins playing much more consistently and as he is capable. If so, we will be well above any team in the MAC. While it’s certainly easy to waver and question the team’s ability to get their swag back given our recent uneven play, I suppose it is only a natural reaction. The fact of the matter is that the coaches and players have worked way too hard for them not to get it going again. I fully expect them to do just that. 

Can’t wait till we get BG in AA. It’ll be a much different story. 

As far as at large bids and national rankings they are mere distractions. You play not to get an at large bid or to be nationally ranked. You play the game, and more importantly prepare to be the best you can be each and every day and game. The boys have done that since the summer and as a result put themselves in the national spotlight and earned the right to be in a solid position for an at large bid should they not win the MAC tourney. But we’re only 2/3 of the way through the season. So it’s one game at a time rankings, at large bids and all the other fluff be damned. These guys will get the job done. Go Bulls!!! 

Pretty spot on here as well. Too much world is ending posts around here. I get it. I'm just as used to it at the sabres message boards. And expectations create even more negativity and knee jerk reactions. But the Bulls are good. The world is not over. Being unranked, so be it. It was a great ride and I still can't believe we were ever ranked this long.

The two losses are exactly as you said. And they should be looked at that way. Only thing that matters is they slowly find that all around game they had before. I think they will. Lots of games left.

Ub85 some people are going to choose the omg the effort defense turnovers hustle and Harris all suck. Seasons over. Hello nit. No way we win in March... Yeah i get. Ive watched every minute of every game. I see what they look like. But why am I writing a post mortem half way through the Mac season ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BG is a pretty solid team.  It’s not like the Bulls lost to a lousy MAC program.  It was a close road game in a rough environment.  The NIU loss was more concerning.  But I agree with some, they may have one more tough loss to give before its wave goodbye to the Top25 for good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, UB85 said:

Frankly D I think there’s a 50-50 chance they’re still ranked. Haven’t dropped much in either KenPom or NET. Of course besides the point. Just focus on getting it together. A lot of fun in store in the future. Go Bulls!! 

If they end up #25 somehow on Monday, no I wouldnt be totally shocked. But 50-50 is probably what that'll be. Id agree with that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I understand the feeling that we're a mid-major, so being skeptical of getting an at-large if they stumble in the tournament, but even now after the BG and NIU losses they have a slight chance of staying in the top 25.  They've been ranked in the top 25 for 12 straight weeks rising to #14 twice.  They are currently #23 in the NET.  There is absolutely NO chance this team doesn't get an at large.  Even if they lose one more game, they'll still be fine.  The committee is not going to leave out a team ranked in the top 25 for over half the season and top 25 in NET out of the tournament.  It's just not going to happen, no matter which conference they come from.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...