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Big 4 Update: UB solidifies "lock" status


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LINK: Big 4 Update: UB solidifies "lock" status

I believe Buffalo's victory over Toledo solidified their NCAA Tournament resume, shifting them into “lock” status.

Buffalo was already on the right side of the bubble conversation prior to their pair of road wins last week. Their season sweep of Toledo only strengthens an already impressive resume.

The Bulls entered Friday ranked 22nd in the NET, the new NCAA formula replacing RPI moving forward. Their victory over the Rockets should give them a minor boost in that metric. 

UB is also grading out well in the KenPom rankings, sitting at 23 as of Saturday evening.

The Bulls are making the NCAA Tournament regardless of what happens in Cleveland. The only question now is, what type of seed is UB looking at?

At this moment in time, I believe Buffalo is looking at a six-seed. They’ll have an opportunity to improve or cement that seed with a strong finish to the regular season.

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We just can't collapse within the next 6 games. 4 of the 6 being home is a nice advantage. We should beat Miami (OH) and Ohio on the road but we will see. 

If we win out, we are looking at a 28-3 record and the MAC Regular Season Title. We might be pushing 6-7. If we win the MAC Championship, I would say we are a 5.

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It's becoming a bit of a broken record thing to say but if UB doesn't win out (and I'll possibly include the MAC Championship here) it's because they beat themselves. We are better than every team in this conference. Don't shoot ourselves in the foot with unforced errors and lapses in defense and we enter the tournament with 3 losses.

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33 minutes ago, promotherobot said:

I don't agree. Today's poll snub shows Buffalo can't assume anything.

The NET is what they are going to use to seed. It's not going to be a bunch of AP voters with a P5 bias. 

I'm fairly comfortable saying we will get a 6 seed minus a collapse or mini-collapse.

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That is a very interesting group of people. How do they decide who gets on the committee? 

I liked the note at the bottom that said a conference representative can’t be in the room when discussing a team from their conference. 

So does the committee totally ignore AP rankings? Do they go by good wins/bad losses based on NET rankings? For example if they were discussing bowling green they would ignore them beating #18 (AP) buffalo and say they beat #22 (NET) buffalo? Genuinely curious about all this 

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15 hours ago, 121Merrimac said:

Asking, because I don’t know.... how many of the AP are involved in selection Sunday?

 

15 hours ago, Kevin said:

The NET is what they are going to use to seed. It's not going to be a bunch of AP voters with a P5 bias. 

I'm fairly comfortable saying we will get a 6 seed minus a collapse or mini-collapse.

It's well established that the committee favors power conferences. A .500 ACC team will be taken over a 5-loss team from a non-power conference. 

Notice that people who were pumping up UB when we were at 1-loss are jumping off the bandwagon now. (e.g. Dick Vitale) The bloom is coming off the rose. Never assume anything is a lock.

Edited by promotherobot
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I cant watch the selection show if UB isnt involved. They use whatever metric is necessary to include the 9th place ACC team. If that means road wins fine, NET ranking fine, Quad 1 wins fine, SoS fine. I believe that's why they have so many metrics so theres always a reason they can look to put a certain team in or out.

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A source who I will keep anonymous told me that some on the Committee have already spoken about Buffalo in early January. They are an at large only if they lose 3 or less games in the MAC. That was stated in early January. With that said, we have only lost 2 which means that the final lose has to come in the MAC Tournament. 

Not sure if anything has changed in early January but figured I share.

Edited by BullsFan14
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9 hours ago, weareub46 said:

So does the committee totally ignore AP rankings? Do they go by good wins/bad losses based on NET rankings? For example if they were discussing bowling green they would ignore them beating #18 (AP) buffalo and say they beat #22 (NET) buffalo? Genuinely curious about all this 

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-10-19/how-field-68-teams-picked-march-madness

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35 minutes ago, BullsFan14 said:

A source who I will keep anonymous told me that some on the Committee have already spoken about Buffalo in early January. They are an at large only if they lose 3 or less games in the MAC. That was stated in early January. With that said, we have only lost 2 which means that the final lose has to come in the MAC Tournament. 

Not sure if anything has changed in early January but figured I share.

That seems consistent with history and the perception from most people. 

Honestly, it seems reasonable.  And it looks like they are fine. 

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1 hour ago, promotherobot said:

 

It's well established that the committee favors power conferences. A .500 AAC team will be taken over a 5-loss team from a non-power conference. 

Notice that people who were pumping up UB when we were at 1-loss are jumping off the bandwagon now. (e.g. Dick Vitale) The bloom is coming off the rose. Never assume anything is a lock.

Agree. All the metrics and criteria in the world does not matter. Their is peer pressure on committe members who are all in the same elite club. The bottom line is they look at strength of schedule and the conferences teams are in when making selections. How can high mid majors have a good strength of schedule when teams won’t play them. At any rate all a team like UB can do is control it’s own destiny and just win their games and let the chips fall where they will . Just very exciting to be part of the discussion in March. Go Bulls!!!!

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I don't see where UB is a Lock for anything...  But they at least have TWO paths to be a LOCK,

1) Win the final 6 MAC regular season games

or

2) Win the MAC tournament 

 

I don't think either option will be easy.  Over these final 6 games the opponents are going to treat the games like their own personal Final Four experience.  IF UB can navigate through these last 6 games and win them they would be on a nine-game MAC winning streak.  That's really hard to pull off.  

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