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32 minutes ago, trueblue32 said:

Meh rated lower than Skogman is. Only played 8% of mins on a team that would've been rated 3rd lowest in the MAC per KenPom last year.

Dambrot downgraded teams but upgraded schools, cities, states.

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  • 3 weeks later...
5 minutes ago, 961819 said:

Bowling Green with an offer to a 7th grader 

The whole idea is just ridiculous. The "offer" surely isn't binding and who knows how this kid will turn out once he gets to the end of high school. Maybe he'll grow, maybe not. Maybe he'll be a good kid, maybe not. It's just lip service and for headlines, just like every other kid who posts "X offered me today" and the "transfer portal". 

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I know his dad. The Easter family is hood sports royalty in Toledo. A bunch of top HS basketball players in the 80s-90s, one of whom played in the MAC. A world champion boxer a few years back. A couple youngins likely to be well rated basketball recruits, old friendships with local sports legends... Huger making a connection with the Easters is good politics.

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Miami of Ohio signs James Beck  a 6'8 power forward from Oakland.  He will sit out 2019-20 and have two years of eligibility after that.

https://local12.com/sports/college-sports/miami-basketball-adds-transfer-from-oakland-university-cincinnati-redhawks-college-james-beck-jack-owens

Here are his stats from Oakland.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/james-beck-1.html

Screenshot_20190627-190220~2.png

Edited by DocCas86
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1 hour ago, SGBull said:

Lunardi released his early bracketology today and has Ball St winning the MAC. That is bold for a team that went 6-12 in the conference last year.

Laughable. I bet less than 1/4 of his initial mid-major auto picks actually make the tourney. Even that might be optimistic.

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6 hours ago, DocCas86 said:

Miami of Ohio signs James Beck  a 6'8 power forward from Oakland.  He will sit out 2019-20 and have two years of eligibility after that.

https://local12.com/sports/college-sports/miami-basketball-adds-transfer-from-oakland-university-cincinnati-redhawks-college-james-beck-jack-owens

Here are his stats from Oakland.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/james-beck-1.html

Screenshot_20190627-190220~2.png

Could just be a bad picture of him but that guy looks like he’s in his 40s 

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9 hours ago, SGBull said:

Lunardi released his early bracketology today and has Ball St winning the MAC. That is bold for a team that went 6-12 in the conference last year.

I used data from barttorvik.com to compile the attached two graphs.  The first graph shows high correlation between the difference (DELTA) between Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (ADJOE) and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (ADJDE) based on sample from the MAC for past three seasons. The second chart shows the  DELTA for 2018-19 and projected 2019-20 as well as Minutes Retained in 2019-20 from previous season.  So what do I take away from these charts from Bulls perspective:

  • The site projects Ball St to get 13 wins.
  • The site projects Bulls getting 11 MAC wins in 2019-20.  This projects UB results will be similar to Nate Oats first year (i.e. 10/11 wins in MAC).  Remember that UB won the MAC tournament that year
  • Some caveats at this point: almost two-thirds of the Bull's minutes will come from a different source than last year; and the site does not have the roster completely accurate at this point.  Also, I have not looked at the reasonableness of changes in DELTA, as I need to start doing my day job, maybe later.

My take-away is that the Bulls should be competitive in 2019-20 and have a shot at going back to NCAA tournament.  In light of losing all the talent and the coach, I would look at this as a positive.

BartTorvikMAC Projections.JPG

Edited by DocCas86
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39 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

I used data from barttorvik.com to compile the attached two graphs.  The first graph shows high correlation between the difference (DELTA) between Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (ADJOE) and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (ADJDE) based on sample from the MAC for past three seasons. The second chart shows the  DELTA for 2018-19 and projected 2019-20 as well as Minutes Retained in 2019-20 from previous season.  So what do I take away from these charts from Bulls perspective:

  • The site projects Ball St to get 13 wins.
  • The site projects Bulls getting 11 MAC wins in 2019-20.  This projects UB results will be similar to Nate Oats first year (i.e. 10/11 wins in MAC).  Remember that UB won the MAC tournament that year
  • Some caveats at this point: almost two-thirds of the Bull's minutes will come from a different source than last year; and the site does not have the roster completely accurate at this point.  Also, I have not looked at the reasonableness of changes in DELTA, as I need to start doing my day job, maybe later.

My take-away is that the Bulls should be competitive in 2019-20 and have a shot at going back to NCAA tournament.  In light of losing all the talent and the coach, I would look at this as a positive.

BartTorvikMAC Projections.JPG

Very interesting, looks like the fact that Ball State has a lot of returning talent so maybe that's why he picked them.  

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3 hours ago, DocCas86 said:

I used data from barttorvik.com to compile the attached two graphs.  The first graph shows high correlation between the difference (DELTA) between Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (ADJOE) and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (ADJDE) based on sample from the MAC for past three seasons. The second chart shows the  DELTA for 2018-19 and projected 2019-20 as well as Minutes Retained in 2019-20 from previous season.  So what do I take away from these charts from Bulls perspective:

  • The site projects Ball St to get 13 wins.
  • The site projects Bulls getting 11 MAC wins in 2019-20.  This projects UB results will be similar to Nate Oats first year (i.e. 10/11 wins in MAC).  Remember that UB won the MAC tournament that year
  • Some caveats at this point: almost two-thirds of the Bull's minutes will come from a different source than last year; and the site does not have the roster completely accurate at this point.  Also, I have not looked at the reasonableness of changes in DELTA, as I need to start doing my day job, maybe later.

My take-away is that the Bulls should be competitive in 2019-20 and have a shot at going back to NCAA tournament.  In light of losing all the talent and the coach, I would look at this as a positive.

BartTorvikMAC Projections.JPG

Damn, good work! I’d say that’s a little more realistic than looking at rosters alone lol 

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1 hour ago, 961819 said:

Damn, good work! I’d say that’s a little more realistic than looking at rosters alone lol 

Most of work was done on the site.  I haven't fully researched how they are estimating ADJOE and ADJDE for upcoming season, but suspect there is  consideration of expected roster.  Another place on that site they have expected contributors.  They are still including Rojas, Allen and Caldwell for Bulls while not including Skogman or Gallion or TBD?  So subject to change.  May be tweaks to other MAC teams as well.  More to come.

http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Buffalo&year=2020

Entire view of MAC

http://barttorvik.com/trankpre.php?conlimit=MAC&state=All&year=2020&sort=

Edited by DocCas86
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1 hour ago, DocCas86 said:

Most of work was done on the site.  I haven't fully researched how they are estimating ADJOE and ADJDE for upcoming season, but suspect there is  consideration of expected roster.  Another place on that site they have expected contributors.  They are still including Rojas, Allen and Caldwell for Bulls while not including Skogman or Gallion or TBD?  So subject to change.  May be tweaks to other MAC teams as well.  More to come.

http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Buffalo&year=2020

Entire view of MAC

http://barttorvik.com/trankpre.php?conlimit=MAC&state=All&year=2020&sort=

Love the data and what it suggests. I think this will be a great "rebuilding" year for us, especially if Segu and Williams find their stride.

As much as the data is fun to look at, it doesn't take in to account the big things, like how these guys progress in the off season, what they've done to improve their game, how their workouts and strength training have been, and the list could go on. Ultimately we'll see how everyone stands come September. Those are the stats I want to see.

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  • 1 month later...
20 minutes ago, dutchcountry7 said:

Is this a transfer up or transfer down situation?

Well the A10 is viewed as a better conference...so I think he had hoped for a better landing spot. Over thought his value as many transfers do then settled for Bona. Which is a better spot than Miami but prolly not what he was hoping for.

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