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Projection for this season?


dutchcountry7

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2 hours ago, dutchcountry7 said:

How that we know the schedule, what is your projection for the season?

 

My take:

OOC: 8-5

MAC: 14-4

MAC Tournament Champs.

I think 8-5 is reasonable, but I think MAC would be  11-12 wins.   I feel at end of season we will have a good shot at the MAC tournament.   If we play at similar pace, I see a drop of about 5 points per game to around 79 average.  I attribute the drop in points per game to a dip in 2pt percentage  FT percentage,   and perhaps a slight increase in turnovers, as they have not played together for as long.    I hope we keep up the defensive intensity and hold opponents to 73 points or fewer a game.  So add in a couple of tourney wins and a 20+ win season.  May not be popular, but that is my expectation.

Edited by DocCas86
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1 hour ago, BrooklynBull said:

We will win some and lose some.  Then we will have to win three or four games in the MAC Tournament to go to the NCAA.

Agree. This season will have ups and downs. It will look different from seasons past but we will still be a solid team. Obviously the goal is to win every game but let’s face it we will lose more than 4 games. That said just build and be clicking come late February into March and win the MAC tourney.

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I haven't looked super closely at the schedule as of yet, but I think that the 1st post seems reasonable. 14 wins might be a tad high, although I think that the MAC will be down for several opponents, so maybe it's realistic. I think our boys will be very strong overall, taking a step back but not several (32 wins is just unrealistic, but mid-20s is very realistic in my eyes). This team is extremely athletic, so if their shooting can be on point, they will be a handful for most, if not all opponents.

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My son and I spoke about this the other day when I was explaining to him Buffalo's OOC schedule.

He said that UB had the best regular season ever by a MAC team and were ranked for the entire season.  He felt that if UB didn't meet Texas Tech, they could have been a final 8 team last year (and I agree).  He thinks the drop off from the senior production (Harris, CJ, Perk) will be too much to overcome...and the loss of the recruits at the level they were.

I can't blame him -- he is right.  But I told him that just because UB doesn't win 30 games this year, they still can have a strong MAC season this year and get a bye.  We'll see.

I think people on this fan board are overly optimistic about the contributions that the newcomers and those who didn't play alot will make.  But that's to be expected -- this is a fan board after all.  However, I do think the cupboard is not bare and Graves + Jordan and some of the other guys progressing (Segu / Williams) will make us quite competitive.  We will see how other guys fit in.   It will be an interesting season and an interesting challenge.  I had hoped Oats and the guys he brought in would be doing it, but that was not in the cards.  So we will play with what we have.

8 - 5 OOC and 11 - 7 in conference...I would think are reasonable expectations.  So 19 wins are what I say, regular season.

 

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3 minutes ago, UB92 said:

and the loss of the recruits at the level they were.

The class that Oats/Hodgson had coming in was undoubtedly a step above anything we've seen. That being said... if we didn't see that class I think we'd all be raving about the class we DO have coming in. We didn't lose any current players and the staff did a remarkable job recruiting in short time. The turnover rate is the same as it would have been and the talent is still high (likely still a step above what other MAC schools can pull).

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1 hour ago, Jeseph said:

The class that Oats/Hodgson had coming in was undoubtedly a step above anything we've seen. That being said... if we didn't see that class I think we'd all be raving about the class we DO have coming in. We didn't lose any current players and the staff did a remarkable job recruiting in short time. The turnover rate is the same as it would have been and the talent is still high (likely still a step above what other MAC schools can pull).

This is what many people seemingly forget about...when it comes down to it, our ability to make the NCAA's rides on if we are the best team in the MAC.

Will we be as good as we were last year in the eyes of the national media and people who do not follow the MAC as closely? Likely not. Will we be the best team in the MAC and good enough to once again win the conference? That is a yes in my book.

Looking at BG specifically, they lose two of their best five and I do not think anyone would argue that the talent level of the players they have coming in does not compare to UB's. Yet many are just assuming BG will be the MAC team to beat. Of course we need to see what this year's team will look like on the court but the same goes for nearly every team, in every season. It is exceedingly rare the position we were in coming into last season where we returned nearly all impact player's and had such little turnover.

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1 hour ago, UB92 said:

My son and I spoke about this the other day when I was explaining to him Buffalo's OOC schedule.

He said that UB had the best regular season ever by a MAC team and were ranked for the entire season.  He felt that if UB didn't meet Texas Tech, they could have been a final 8 team last year (and I agree).  He thinks the drop off from the senior production (Harris, CJ, Perk) will be too much to overcome...and the loss of the recruits at the level they were.

I can't blame him -- he is right.  But I told him that just because UB doesn't win 30 games this year, they still can have a strong MAC season this year and get a bye.  We'll see.

I think people on this fan board are overly optimistic about the contributions that the newcomers and those who didn't play alot will make.  But that's to be expected -- this is a fan board after all.  However, I do think the cupboard is not bare and Graves + Jordan and some of the other guys progressing (Segu / Williams) will make us quite competitive.  We will see how other guys fit in.   It will be an interesting season and an interesting challenge.  I had hoped Oats and the guys he brought in would be doing it, but that was not in the cards.  So we will play with what we have.

8 - 5 OOC and 11 - 7 in conference...I would think are reasonable expectations.  So 19 wins are what I say, regular season.

 

I have some company now in the 11-7 club although I certainly hoping for better.   However, I believe this team will improve over the course of the season and I am optimistic they will peak in March.  I think they have a legitimate shot at winning the MAC tourney and earning another NCAA tourney bid.  This team compares to Nate Oats first year - that team peaked to win the MAC tournament and gave a Miami (FL) team (that lost in Sweet 16 to eventual champ Villinova) all they could handle in round of 64. 

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32 minutes ago, dutchcountry7 said:

That's really all that matters.  This team isn't getting an at-large. 

Certainly the team will not be ranked pre-season.  But...should the team leave Charleston undefeated...they will be ranked since people (i.e. voters) now know who they are.  They are starting from a higher point.

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2 hours ago, Jeseph said:

The class that Oats/Hodgson had coming in was undoubtedly a step above anything we've seen. That being said... if we didn't see that class I think we'd all be raving about the class we DO have coming in. We didn't lose any current players and the staff did a remarkable job recruiting in short time. The turnover rate is the same as it would have been and the talent is still high (likely still a step above what other MAC schools can pull).

Regarding what is in bold...that is one way to look at it.

But if you feed me filet mignon instead of minute steak for a few years, my "floor" becomes filet mignon.   Don't give me a lesser cut and say "a few years ago, you would have loved this cut".  

The bar has changed and for the better.  There are higher expectations now.  

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2 minutes ago, UB92 said:

Certainly the team will not be ranked pre-season.  But...should the team leave Charleston undefeated...they will be ranked since people (i.e. voters) now know who they are.  They are starting from a higher point.

Agree with both you and Dutch. If this team leaves Charleston undefeated then yea at large would be in play. But that’s a big if. The beauty is that we control our own destiny with 3 days in March

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27 minutes ago, UB92 said:

Certainly the team will not be ranked pre-season.  But...should the team leave Charleston undefeated...they will be ranked since people (i.e. voters) now know who they are.  They are starting from a higher point.

That will be tough to do. A lot of good teams.

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49 minutes ago, SGBull said:

That will be tough to do. A lot of good teams.

Agree, some quality teams in the tournament. 

FWIW

Flordia / Xavier Rank < 48 per this website (barttorvik has them at #1 and #37) respectively).

53 / UConn  https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/17790

57 / Miami FL https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/17783

100 / Missouri St https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/17655

109 / Buffalo https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/17627

Towson / St. Joseph's Rank > 144 per this website. (barttorvik has them at #143 and #286) respectively).

Edited by DocCas86
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