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Projection for this season?


dutchcountry7

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9 hours ago, UB92 said:

Regarding what is in bold...that is one way to look at it.

But if you feed me filet mignon instead of minute steak for a few years, my "floor" becomes filet mignon.   Don't give me a lesser cut and say "a few years ago, you would have loved this cut".  

The bar has changed and for the better.  There are higher expectations now.  

We have a top 50 recruiting class which was assembled after losing our entire recruiting class, coach AND top recruiter. Along with having to rebuild the coaching staff, all with very short notice, having a top 50 class after losing an entire top 50 class is remarkable. 

What more could’ve been done here? A lot of people on here are taking stabs in the dark doing the exact same thing all the analysts that are underestimating this team are doing: looking at who left and thinking the cupboards are empty. Go to a practice or two and you’ll quickly see that’s far from the case. The team is still supremely athletic, has arguably more depth than they did last year, and has more height. 

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When you're a program who has won 4 of the last 5 conference tournaments, were regular season champions 3 of those seasons, have the highest rated recruiting classes 4 years running and have a low amount of transfers out of your program comparable to conference foes, you should have every expectation that you're going to be the top program at the end of the year. Sure we graduated a lot but we're bringing in better talent every year. Buffalo has transfers from Houston, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Middle Tennessee State - all were top 25 caliber programs at the time those transferred players were on their rosters. Our decommitted  recruits from last year all went to power conference schools.

They're on another level from the rest of the MAC until they prove otherwise or until another MAC school rises to the occasion. 

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45 minutes ago, BasketBull said:

When you're a program who has won 4 of the last 5 conference tournaments, were regular season champions 3 of those seasons, have the highest rated recruiting classes 4 years running and have a low amount of transfers out of your program comparable to conference foes, you should have every expectation that you're going to be the top program at the end of the year. Sure we graduated a lot but we're bringing in better talent every year. Buffalo has transfers from Houston, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Middle Tennessee State - all were top 25 caliber programs at the time those transferred players were on their rosters. Our decommitted  recruits from last year all went to power conference schools.

They're on another level from the rest of the MAC until they prove otherwise or until another MAC school rises to the occasion. 

I agree, also I feel like people are ignoring that a lot of the returning players (including Johnson and Grant) had the experience of competing against the seniors from last year every day in practice. That is what makes you better and instills the same work ethic, expectations, and defensive intensity that made those guys great. They clearly helped build a great culture around the team that made this year's group believe that they can play to that level. One trend we have seen around the NCAA is that when things go wrong, players jump ship. Our coach left and not one of our players transferred. If you go based off of high school recruiting ranking (I know this isn't perfect) we have our most "talented" group of players ever. I don't think we will be as good as last year, but we should be the frontrunners in the MAC.

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We lost our first game against Bowling Green last season by 4 points in front of the largest crowd to ever watch a Bowling Green basketball game at the Stroh Center. They shot over 50% and the refs called 44 (!) fouls including 25 on the Bulls. We played them twice more and beat them by double digits both times. They lost their 3rd and 4th best scorers including Wiggins who accounted for 25% of their total rebounding. Can someone please explain to me why Bowling Green is the odds on favorite to win this year? Is Justin Turner really sooooo good that he can single-handedly run over the conference? 

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6 minutes ago, clodney said:

We lost our first game against Bowling Green last season by 4 points in front of the largest crowd to ever watch a Bowling Green basketball game at the Stroh Center. They shot over 50% and the refs called 44 (!) fouls including 25 on the Bulls. We played them twice more and beat them by double digits both times. They lost their 3rd and 4th best scorers including Wiggins who accounted for 25% of their total rebounding. Can someone please explain to me why Bowling Green is the odds on favorite to win this year? Is Justin Turner really sooooo good that he can single-handedly run over the conference? 

Nope and nope

In my eyes, there are a couple of strong MAC teams, including UB and then there is a distinct gap. For years, the MAC was pretty tightly contested top to bottom, with home teams coming out on top more often than not. I think that these top teams should be able to assert themselves this season, leaving only the strongest at the end. I could see us and BG running over the rest of the East this year. 

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1 hour ago, UB05 said:

UB ranked 3rd in the east is hilarious. Put it on the bulletin board in the locker room 

Exactly. I’m sure we won’t be on anyone’s list to win the MAC. Lunardi had Ball St in the dance in an early bracket prediction. It’s all bulletin board stuff for what should be a top MAC contender once again. 

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17 hours ago, 961819 said:

 Go to a practice or two and you’ll quickly see that’s far from the case. The team is still supremely athletic, has arguably more depth than they did last year, and has more height. 

I hope you are right.  I really do.   And UB hardly misses a beat from last year.  That is the outcome I am rooting for. 

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On 9/19/2019 at 3:37 PM, UB92 said:

Regarding what is in bold...that is one way to look at it.

But if you feed me filet mignon instead of minute steak for a few years, my "floor" becomes filet mignon.   Don't give me a lesser cut and say "a few years ago, you would have loved this cut".  

The bar has changed and for the better.  There are higher expectations now.  

You never tasted filet mignon. You were told that someone was going to give it to you for the first time but they never followed through. In fact, they told the butcher not to deliver the meat to you. 

Recruiting rankings don’t mean anything.  They mean even less when they don’t make their way to campus. 

I wouldn’t be shocked if the recruits coming in have better careers than the ones that bolted. 

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2 hours ago, dutchcountry7 said:

You never tasted filet mignon. You were told that someone was going to give it to you for the first time but they never followed through. In fact, they told the butcher not to deliver the meat to you. 

Recruiting rankings don’t mean anything.  They mean even less when they don’t make their way to campus. 

I wouldn’t be shocked if the recruits coming in have better careers than the ones that bolted. 

????

The filet was how they have performed the last few years.  

At any rate, the point is the floor is higher.   I hope the recruits on the team perform better than the ones that left   

 

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5 hours ago, UB92 said:

????

The filet was how they have performed the last few years.  

At any rate, the point is the floor is higher.   I hope the recruits on the team perform better than the ones that left   

 

No, you were replying to the comment made by someone else you had highlighted in bold which was:

 

if we didn't see that class I think we'd all be raving about the class we DO have coming in”

 

now you're just just trying to say you really meant something else so your analogy makes sense. 

 

You wouldnt have highlighted the comment on recruiting classes if classes if you were talking about national rankings. 

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I think the bottom line is there will be a drop off. We can’t expect this team to lose only 4 games. But we can expect this team to be a top 4 MAC team heading into the MAC tournament. Where we control our own destiny. That said let’s win all the games. But last year was magical. To compare this season to it, is unfair. Go Bulls!

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14 hours ago, dutchcountry7 said:

No, you were replying to the comment made by someone else you had highlighted in bold which was:

 

if we didn't see that class I think we'd all be raving about the class we DO have coming in”

 

now you're just just trying to say you really meant something else so your analogy makes sense. 

 

You wouldnt have highlighted the comment on recruiting classes if classes if you were talking about national rankings. 

I guess we are doing this...

The team has recruited better BECAUSE THEY MADE IT TO THE TOURNAMENT a few times.  They have been successful on the court and that leads to success in recruiting.  Thus, the expectations (i.e. the floor) of what is expected in a recruiting class is higher.   So...I now expect strong recruiting classes where we compete with P5 programs for recruits, not who can we get from Canada because we lost out on a recruit to a mid-major.    I don't expect mediocre recruiting classes.  The poster of the original comment was saying things like "a few years ago, you would have been happy with this class".   And he is right and I said that it is one way to look at it.  But the past is not now.  We weren't ever ranked before, let alone ranked (basically) all year.  Floor is higher.  Times change.  And you know what, we did see the recruiting class Oats brought in that left.  I can't not know that now.  It is known what the class was (regardless of how they ultimately perform).

That's like going to a store because they had a sale on an item you wanted and it was 50% off.  You get there and the salesperson says "oh...this one is excluded...it is 30% off".  And your friend says "hey...that's still a good deal".  It may still be a good deal, but I thought I was getting it for 50% off.

 

Man...the crap that we talk about (and others comment about) in the off-season prior to the games starting.  

Is there any info on scrimmages coming up in October?

 

 

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8 hours ago, JoeyRattlesnake said:

I’ll go a step further.  That ain’t gonna happen. I hope I’m wrong but we would need to beat UConn, Xavier and Florida. UF is going to be a top-5 preseason team. Xavier is top 25-ish. 

Seriously, last year's team would have had a hard time winning this tournament and this year's team isn't as good.  Three games in a row is tough to do no matter who you play but UB has the toughest path.  First round UConn (NCAA Bubble team), then Xavier (top-20 team), then  Florida (top-10 team).

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 9/20/2019 at 8:16 AM, BasketBull said:

When you're a program who has won 4 of the last 5 conference tournaments, were regular season champions 3 of those seasons, have the highest rated recruiting classes 4 years running and have a low amount of transfers out of your program comparable to conference foes, you should have every expectation that you're going to be the top program at the end of the year. Sure we graduated a lot but we're bringing in better talent every year. Buffalo has transfers from Houston, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Middle Tennessee State - all were top 25 caliber programs at the time those transferred players were on their rosters. Our decommitted  recruits from last year all went to power conference schools.

They're on another level from the rest of the MAC until they prove otherwise or until another MAC school rises to the occasion. 

Great post, and don't forget Nickelberry was originally at Memphis, too! I wouldnt be shocked if he steps right in and makes a bigger impact than Johnson or Hardnett, maybe a top 3 scorer and rebounder, with even better passing and stronger finishing at the hoop than Harris had.

Edited by RecoveringHillbilly
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