Buffalo at Vanderbilt (12/3 @ 8 pm)

[DooleyBull06]

I think we can all agree that we are comfy with Mballa, Graves, Jordan, Segu and Williams. Bc we have no ready backup PG we can’t start Segu. Bc Bertram is hurt we are playing Hardnett out of position, which could begin to hinder his growth. One of the main focuses becomes who will step up and become a consistent piece to support the main 5. I feel Johnson should be coming off the bench. But then who do you start in place of him?

Disappointment doesn’t begin to describe Johnson. He and Grant just seem to wanna shoot 3s that don’t come within the flow of the offense.  

[MaineBull]

34 minutes ago, rma said:

All that matters is a handful of games in Cleveland.  I remember an 8 seed that won the whole damn thing when Ohio and Central Michigan looked unstoppable.

I could not agree with this statement anymore.  This season is different from last year.  We will need to use the season to grow and improve.  All that matters for this season is getting ready for a week of games in Cleveland.  If we are playing our best basketball by then this will be a successful season.  As fans we need to understand there will be bumps in the road and we there will be frustrating games like tonight.  I for one chose to support this team and I will be here rooting them on all the way.  Here to playing our best basketball in Cleveland and going to the big dance again!

[rma]

3 minutes ago, MaineBull said:

I could not agree with this statement anymore.  This season is different from last year.  We will need to use the season to grow and improve.  All that matters for this season is getting ready for a week of games in Cleveland.  If we are playing our best basketball by then this will be a successful season.  As fans we need to understand there will be bumps in the road and we there will be frustrating games like tonight.  I for one chose to support this team and I will be here rooting them on all the way.  Here to playing our best basketball in Cleveland and going to the big dance again!

I would love to capture an East title or a regular season title, but it seems like we are not playing to the consistency that will allow that.  If we win it this year it would be great though.

[DooleyBull06]

What if I told you that with the way things are currently, we will start conference play at 9-4. How many would sign up for that? Having seen what we’ve seen thus far.

Next 5 games: @DePaul then 4 straight at home. Army, Canisius, Niagara and Bona.

Edited December 4, 2019 by DooleyBull06

[DocCas86]

2 minutes ago, DooleyBull06 said:

What if I told you that with the way things are currently, we will start conference play at 9-4. How many would sign up for that? Having seen what we’ve seen thus far.

I guess it would be nice, but at risk of beating a dead horse, that we show progress and improve with each game.  As a 9-4 out of conference does not mean much, what matters will be MAC tournament.

[DooleyBull06]

2 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

I guess it would be nice, but at risk of beating a dead horse, that we show progress and improve with each game.  As a 9-4 out of conference does not mean much, what matters will be MAC tournament.

I agree. But in order for some not to completely jump off the ship, this may need to be the case. 

[UB85]

40 minutes ago, MaineBull said:

I could not disagree with these two statements more.  This is a young team with a new coach that needs time to play together to improve.  Give them time, no need to jump off the cliff after one poor outing.

No reason not to give the team time to develop. As I’ve said before it took both Hamilton and Conner quite a long time and into January before they started playing well. But Squire’s opinion isn’t totally out of whack considering obvious flaws that are mentioned by so many in this thread. 

[MaineBull]

First off those announcers were hard to listen to.  Honestly, embarrassing.  I am all for being a homer for your team, but that took it to the next level.  I thought they were going to stop the game when the walk on hit the three and give him a medal or something!

Can someone explain to me the logic of that stadium.  Why would you put the benches on the end lines?  I cannot get my mind around that concept at all, makes no sense in any way.  It seems to make in game coaching much more difficult.

I know many of us are frustrated with the results of this game.  Trust me I am frustrated as well.  But lets not lose sight of the fact this is a young team with a new coach playing their first true road contest of the season.  There are going to be poor performances and frustration associated with this team until they get it all figured out.  I suspect that will take more than half the season.  This team will figure it out, we just need to be patient.  We are frustrated because we all know this was a winnable game, lets be honest we play them 10 times I suspect we win 7 of them. 

The first 5 minutes of the game we played great.  After that we were terrible on both ends.  On offense we went several long stretches without a basket.  We really needed our leader Graves tonight to carry us in these stretches.  We had no consistent scoring option on offense tonight.  With Graves off we struggled to find another scorer.  The defensive effort was not where it has been the last few games.  We gave away too many easy baskets.  We shot 60% from free throw line, that simply cannot continue.  We shot the ball poorly (39% fg) and committed 17 turnovers.  Not a recipe that will win many games.

Mballa-He has become such a consistent force on both ends.  Solid defense and rebounding, consistent scoring.  I only wish he could make a few free throws (1-4 tonight).

Williams-I liked his shot selection tonight.  He needs to develop an ability to go right off the dribble.  He is not fooling anyone going to his left almost exclusively.  Would still like to see more on the defensive glass from him.

Graves-He did not look healthy to me tonight.  Not sure if he is sick or has an injury.  He continues to settle for too many threes, instead of using his strength attacking off the dribble.  He also needs to improve his free throw shooting.

Johnson-I cannot explain how frustrated I am with his play.  I am not holding back anymore.  He is terrible.  He has terrible shot selection, again shoots 4 for 13 tonight.  On the season he is shooting under 30%, that simply cannot happen.  He does not pass the ball well and has too many turnovers.  The sad part of his play is offensively is the better part of his game.  Defensively he is a total liability on the floor.  He cannot defend a wall.   There were two plays tonight where he was the only player back on defense and he jumped out of the way of a player so they could dunk the ball.  How about you try to take a charge!   At this point he deserves no playing time at all.  He is bringing this team down and coach needs to cut the anchor.  I cannot put it any more simple then this, he does not have the basketball IQ, size or athleticism to contribute at this level.   I don't care if the team promised him playing time when he transferred here.  He cannot handle the step up in play and he does not deserve playing time.  Gallion and Segu getting his minutes is what coach needs to do until he proves he deserves these minutes.

Jordan-Off night shooting the ball, but he played solid defense and took the ball to the hole strong.  Jordan and Mballa are our most consistent players, we know what we get from them each and every game

Grant-Why is he the first guy off the bench?  He is also a defensive liability.  He cannot guard anyone, especially on the perimeter.  He does not have the lateral quickness to defend at this level.  He is a spot up shooter to be used in spot situations.  Nothing more.  He should lose his playing time to Hardnett and Nickleberry immediately.

Hardnett-Still cannot seem to be able to figure out how to defend without fouling.  He really needs to figure this out.  This team needs his size and athleticism.  I am pushing for this kid!

Segu-Played tonight like a kid who has had his confidence rattled.  He needs a good game to get him back on track.  Even in his off days he limits turnovers and does not take ill advised shots and he always competes on the defensive end.

Nickleberry-Has not shown much this season but at this point I am ready to give him additional minutes to see what he can do with extended time on the floor.  

Gallion-Deserves playing time immediately!  

Coach needs to play Segu and Gallion more for Johnson.  I would put Johnson at the end of the bench and see if he can work his way back into the rotation.  My guess is he does not have the mental fortitude to handle this benching and he will melt.  He simply is taking this team down with his poor shots and absolutely embarrassing defense.  Coach also needs to play Hardnett and Nickleberry more in place of Grant.  With those changes I think we are significantly stronger team on the defensive end and on the glass.  This will eliminate many of the easy baskets we are currently giving up.

I have shown my frustration in this post.  I remain positive that this season will be a success and I will be supporting this team as we build to Cleveland.  I know this young team and first year coach will get this ship turned in the right direction and we will be playing our best when we need to.  I cannot wait for Sunday, go Bulls!

 

[DocCas86]

Here are some charts from barttorvik.com on offensive and defensive efficiency.  The first set of charts is for Nate Oats first year (20-15 overall record including 7-6 OOC, 10-8 MAC)

What I see is some difficulties early in the year on offensive side, with defense generally stable (some ups and downs - the poor defensive performance is the aforementioned game against W. Michigan.

Here are the charts through 7 games (does not include Vanderbilt - which will certainly be poor performance on  both counts).  It is hard to make a direct comparison because first set of charts are full year but you do see some poor offensive showings in early part of season.  However after poor initial offensive showing in game 1, there were generally improved performances.  The early season defensive performance is similar to 2015-16.  So we have to keep up the defensive intensity and look to improve on offense, and I think we will be poised to be where we need to be in March.

[UB92]

A few observations...

1.  I keep coming back to this, but last year was the best team UB has ever had.  Heck...I would wager that it was the most complete team in the MAC in a long, long time.  The comparison to last year is not fair to anyone.

2.  One of the most obvious (to anyone that watched UB in person or on TV like I did many times) advantages that UB had last year in the MAC (and beyond) was the team depth.  It made UB almost unstoppable in the MAC during the course of most games.  The players they put in beyond their starters were just so much better than the backups for the other teams.  The starters UB had vs. other teams were close, but our backups were just so much better.  That depth is now gone as people have seen during the games this year.  This will make it a much, much more competitive MAC season that it was last year (or the year before that).

3.  I am going to post a poll on this, but I wonder how much better (or worse) UB would be right now if Oats was still here and we had his draft class.  

4.  Johnson's contribution (or lack thereof) is crucially important to the success of the team.  I think there was an expectation (and rightly so) that he would be a "go to guy" owing to his experience.  But as others have mentioned, it has not been pretty on either end of the court.  He is 14 for 57 in his last five games.   He may need to go to the bench and have Segu start.  But that really hurts our "second team" so much.  As others have noted (and I mention above), our depth is in "developing" mode.

5.  Overall, I think the fans need to temper their expectations a bit more.   UB is a top 125 team.    I would wager we finish with more wins than losses this season, but there will be some ugly games (and that could continue on Sunday).  

Go Bulls.

[DocCas86]

54 minutes ago, Markscranton said:

What are expectations!!!!  After beating --by a threat Towson and Missouri State we are talking about MAC championship and almost every player is a super star.  We lose to an improving SEC team, so many are in despair.  This is not least year's team.  We are still quite new.  We see many +'s and many concerns  Let's see if ewe can come back and give us stronger hope against DePaul--looks like toughest game to date.  We have to do better with shot selection, commit less fouls, have fewer turnovers and hit free throws--We are at a disadvantage at center-particularly when opposing team has more than one big fellow ---we will have a good season Still see 20+ wins and being very competitive in the MAC

 

go Bulls

At this point OOC record looks to be 9-4, my thoughts for MAC are 10-11 wins.  So heading into Cleveland, say a record of 19-12.  What will be real important is three more wins in Cleveland to get to 22-12, return to NCAA tournament. 

[promotherobot]

11 hours ago, squire17 said:

Why are there so many saying that this team is loaded? This team sucks. Come on: They are going to get toasted in the MAC.

 

I think they have lots of talent. It's the loosey goosey execution that hurts them. This is what drove me to rant after the Dartmouth loss. That playground style of getting too cute with the ball. It's obvious this teams calling card will be a fast, slashing attack. The problem is putting yourselves into bad situations where you're turning the ball over or tossing up a prayer shot.

Edited December 4, 2019 by promotherobot

[SGBull]

Looking on the bright side, we have seen a lot of positives from our Sophomores (Williams, Segu, Mballa) so that is a solid core for the next 3 years. 

[xDerekRx]

Here we go with the doomsday posts 🙄 like clockwork, even in the good oats years lol

Anyway I was hoping we'd make a statement last night but it went the opposite.

Oh well. I still love this roster and they have had some good performances this season. Last night was not one.

This is a young team. A lot of turnover in the starting lineup and coaching staff. It takes time. 

If you seriously think we are going to be a top 25 team every game for the rest of time you're just going to get pissed off.

If you've been around here for more than a decade you appreciate how damn amazing the last half dozen years have been. And you understand that even this year's team is as good as most of the teams before the recent run.

Zero worry here from me. Learn and grow during the out of conference schedule.

Like someone else mentioned, go 9-4, that's amazing. Get ready for the MAC season. All that really matters.

The OOC portion to me is to figure out where the jucos and role players fit in. We have a set 5 that I like. But the team absolutely needs guys like Johnson, grant etc to at least find a role. We've always seemingly had a Juco guy who had a good impact as a 2-3 out there over the years and so far it looks like we might not which would be a bit of a blow. We still need to figure that out.

 

 

[John]

12 minutes ago, xDerekRx said:

Here we go with the doomsday posts 🙄 like clockwork, even in the good oats years lol

Anyway I was hoping we'd make a statement last night but it went the opposite.

Oh well. I still love this roster and they have had some good performances this season. Last night was not one.

This is a young team. A lot of turnover in the starting lineup and coaching staff. It takes time. 

If you seriously think we are going to be a top 25 team every game for the rest of time you're just going to get pissed off.

If you've been around here for more than a decade you appreciate how damn amazing the last half dozen years have been. And you understand that even this year's team is as good as most of the teams before the recent run.

Zero worry here from me. Learn and grow during the out of conference schedule.

Like someone else mentioned, go 9-4, that's amazing. Get ready for the MAC season. All that really matters.

 

 

Do agree. With our success the last few years the expectations for this year were that they would continue but the hope was that the new players and the returning ones would turn into a cohesive unit. The expectations were hopeful. Johnson and Grant were not very good players at their previous schools and Jordan and Graves would have to take on the star roles whereas they were good supporting players on the previous teams. Hardnett and Nickleberry do not look comfortable at all and both Williams and Segu are both receiving minutes and playing time for the first time. Winning games is the only thing the will help these players gain confidence. Again on paper these players have the potential to be good but as many of us have seen that does not translate to the play on the court. So far this team lacks defensive tenacity, poor rebounding,turnover tendency and poor free throw shooting and team awareness. In many cases it is the result of new and different makeups of players. As basketball fans we have seen teams and had years like this in the past. It is the job of this coaching staff to make the hard decisions on playing time and have the right team chemistry. Time will tell and here’s hoping that the team will improve. Our support has not wavered and looking forward to our upcoming home games. Go Bulls!!!!

[rma]

Think the doomsday posts even last year were because we had the roster and the skill to win every MAC game. Two problems. We became the hunted. And even with a 90% chance to win each game, you drop two in conference. Because of those reasons we lost to NIU and BG. 

[dutchcountry7]

The MAC isn't good this year. 

My projection from before the season remains the same. 

 

[squire17]

If you examine Buffalo’s effective FG% and compare its current number (47%) with previous seasons - albeit, just 8 games so far versus complete seasons - the team hasn’t shot so poorly since 2012. And this is arguably the easiest OOC schedule since 2014. Think about some of the possible reasons: Watt, McCrea, Regan (Soph and Jr), Moss, and Perkins. Those guys were horses. They generally shot in close. I think that Mballa will develop into a player before he’s done, but this team is dominated by guards, and they moved the 3 point line out this year. I played last night’s game on my iPad earlier today. It was 10 - 1 Bulls. We had the ball. Sprint down, Graves to Grant - chucks up a 3 from 5 feet beyond the arc. That is a recipe for mediocrity.
Now, as far as lockdown defense - an SEC bottom feeder just blitzed you for 90 (84 with 5 minutes left in the game). The DePaul game could be ugly. 

[John]

54 minutes ago, squire17 said:

If you examine Buffalo’s effective FG% and compare its current number (47%) with previous seasons - albeit, just 8 games so far versus complete seasons - the team hasn’t shot so poorly since 2012. And this is arguably the easiest OOC schedule since 2014. Think about some of the possible reasons: Watt, McCrea, Regan (Soph and Jr), Moss, and Perkins. Those guys were horses. They generally shot in close. I think that Mballa will develop into a player before he’s done, but this team is dominated by guards, and they moved the 3 point line out this year. I played last night’s game on my iPad earlier today. It was 10 - 1 Bulls. We had the ball. Sprint down, Graves to Grant - chucks up a 3 from 5 feet beyond the arc. That is a recipe for mediocrity.
Now, as far as lockdown defense - an SEC bottom feeder just blitzed you for 90 (84 with 5 minutes left in the game). The DePaul game could be ugly. 

Stats can tell how a game plays out. UB at 39% shooting, 21% from 3’s, 63% from free throw line, 17 turnovers, only 7 assists, 20 fouls, very little defensive tenacity, poor shot selection and very sloppy ball handling. Usually stat line like or similar to this spells defeat. Looking forward to improvement and the home games. Go Bulls!!!!!

[DocCas86]

58 minutes ago, squire17 said:

If you examine Buffalo’s effective FG% and compare its current number (47%) with previous seasons - albeit, just 8 games so far versus complete seasons - the team hasn’t shot so poorly since 2012. And this is arguably the easiest OOC schedule since 2014. Think about some of the possible reasons: Watt, McCrea, Regan (Soph and Jr), Moss, and Perkins. Those guys were horses. They generally shot in close. I think that Mballa will develop into a player before he’s done, but this team is dominated by guards, and they moved the 3 point line out this year. I played last night’s game on my iPad earlier today. It was 10 - 1 Bulls. We had the ball. Sprint down, Graves to Grant - chucks up a 3 from 5 feet beyond the arc. That is a recipe for mediocrity.
Now, as far as lockdown defense - an SEC bottom feeder just blitzed you for 90 (84 with 5 minutes left in the game). The DePaul game could be ugly. 

I will agree we need to improve eFG%.  I went back to first seven games in 2015-16 (Oats first year) to see eFG%.  That team was good enough to win MAC tournament and have a decent showing against Miami of FL in NCAA tournament.

Here is 19-20

Here is 15-16

My point is not that we are in NCAA tourney, but it is too soon to conclude we won't be good enough to win MAC.   Winning the MAC tourney is goal for this year in my opinion.

 

[squire17]

DocCas86, I have a BA in Mathematics. It would appear from your graphs that this season’s team is shooting better than the team from 2015-2016. Could you put it in table form? 

[DocCas86]

9 minutes ago, squire17 said:

DocCas86, I have a BA in Mathematics. It would appear from your graphs that this season’s team is shooting better than the team from 2015-2016. Could you put it in table form? 

I agree by eye it would appear that the current team is shooting slightly better than that team.   But as you know only 7 observations and not normalized for competition.  I was just trying to make the point to hang in there with this team.  If you are curious, you can find stats on barttorvik.com

Another point to factor in here, if you want to be complete,   in addition to your eFG%,  you can improve your offensive results by keeping your turnovers down and getting offensive rebounds up.

Bottom line, this team can be waiting to see who they play in tournament and can be a challenge in round of 64.  

[DocCas86]

44 minutes ago, squire17 said:

DocCas86, I have a BA in Mathematics. It would appear from your graphs that this season’s team is shooting better than the team from 2015-2016. Could you put it in table form? 

I figured quick way to get values in chart.  Have fun!

[squire17]

Thanks!

[Ubbulls84]

This was a very frustrating game to watch. Really had much higher expectations for Johnson going into this year, he’s been a bust no other way to say it. It’s sad cause you can tell he’s got the talent. Some of these recruits I think lot of people had higher expectations going into the year that they would have a big impact like nickleberry and Hardnett, just hasn’t panned out so far, hopefully that changes. The only guy who I’ve been impressed from the new guys coming in is Mballa. Ceiling is super high for him, just gotta avoid bad fouls and work on ft shooting. Segu had that amazing game against Harvard, but he’s faded himself. We need some of these other guys to step up, can’t be relying on just Graves and Jordan to provide most of scoring.