UB Regular Season Conference Wins

[UB92]

We now have all of the OOC data we need to make a prediction on how UB will fare in conference.

There are 18 regular season conference games in the MAC.  Since the MAC went to 18 games, we have won the following amount of regular season conference games:

2018-19:  16
2017-18:  15
2016-17:  11
2015-16:  10
2014-15:  12
2013-14:  13

How do you expect us to do this year?  Poll closes an hour before the NIU game on Saturday.

[121Merrimac]

I would have voted for 12-13, if that were an option.

[DocCas86]

I took a look at past few years at number of wins for 1-4 in MAC. Here are the average # of wins

1st - 14.5

2nd - 12.0

3rd - 11.0

4th - 10.5

I went with 11/12 with my most likely 12.   

Edited January 3, 2020 by DocCas86

[promotherobot]

I'd say 12 wins.

[121Merrimac]

22 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

I took a look at past few years at number of wins for 1-4 in MAC. Here are the average # of wins

1st - 14.5,  2nd - 12.0 ...

Great perspective.  I don't think anyone will win 15 this year.

[DocCas86]

6 hours ago, 121Merrimac said:

Great perspective.  I don't think anyone will win 15 this year.

I agree.  I wouldn't be surprised to see that the best record in MAC is 13-5.  To add perspective, my saying my most likely estimate of 12 implies about 40% chance of 13 or more wins.    So in my estimation we have a solid chance of best record in regular season.

[UB92]

To put a bow on this (for now), N = 24 and the mean was 12.67 conference wins.

[DooleyBull06]

At this rate we will be lucky to be .500

[121Merrimac]

Bump. 
wow, 24 voters participated!  oof, just over half are slightly disappointed. 

[UB92]

Recall that this poll was done after the final OOC game and before the first MAC game.

While multiple bins were available, only three were used:  11 - 12, 13 - 14 and 15 -16.    Thus, the expectations were exclusively between 11 and 16 wins.

The team finished with 11 wins, which is on the low end of expectations, according to those who voted.   I would have to say, based on this information, the conference season (from a purely W/L perspective) went slightly worse than what was expected.   Of course, one win more win and we have a bye (e.g. that home game against BGSU).

Hopefully, we have several more games to the season, especially one next Saturday night in Cleveland.  I am getting used to going to the MAC Championship Game watching the Bulls...it never gets old.

 

 

 

[NYS Bulls]

Is there a way to even see the poll? It says I don't have permission.