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Pitt 52
UB 3

UGH!

Pitt comes into this game struggling at 2 - 4 and a surprising loss to Youngstown State. I thought that that UB will be a 12 point underdog. They were. The line has dropped down to 11 and now down to 10 with an over/under of 54.5. 17 picks in and only 6 for our Bulls. We are predicting this game pretty close at 33-25 Pitt.

Interesting to see the line drop two points from 12 to 10.   

I watched this Pitt team absolutely dismantle my Hokies. Though I'm not sure if that means they're very good or we're really bad. A little of both, probably. I expect this Pitt team to struggle as they will take the Bulls lightly.

I watched this Pitt team absolutely dismantle my Hokies. Though I'm not sure if that means they're very good or we're really bad. A little of both, probably. I expect this Pitt team to struggle as they will take the Bulls lightly.

I sure hope they are looking past this week. 

Doesn't the line drop when the favorite is attracting too little money, or the dog doesn't have enough of a following?  Not sure that its a good omen........maybe the "sharps" have low expectations of UB as well?  I think it has been Pitt's schitzo nature that has people puzzled/nervous.  I think they (Pitt) will show up and have a statement game; they need back into the bowl picture in a hurry; this should be the first step.

They have played like absolutely crap against bad teams and they've played great against good teams. They were easily the most impressive team Virginia Tech faced this year. The Hokies should have beaten Cincinnati as they were definitely the better team that game, but they were manhandled by Pitt and didn't really have a shot at winning at all. I can't figure out for the life of me how Pitt lost to Cinci. Even more ridiculous, how did they lose to Youngstown State and a terrible Syracuse team? Sheeesh.

YSU: First game of the season and came out flat as can be, got ran all over, and they're QB looked very efficient and managed the game well.  Looks like the teams switched uniforms from what was expected.
Cincy: Still hungover from YSU game.  Painful to watch.  First play from scrimmage was a run for about 60 yards literally in a straight line, completely untouched.  Surrendered something like 21 points in the first quarter, and then probably outplayed them the rest of the way.  Too much of a deficit.
Cuse: Get absolutely torched on the first drive, then hold them to no offensive points the rest of the game (they scored on a fumble by Sunseri IIRC after a sack).  Missed reasonable FG/knocked out of range by penalties three times to win the game, and lose by 1.

In sum: One unacceptable game, one unacceptable quarter, one unacceptable drive.

I don't expect this to be pretty without BO playing.  Pitt's D will surrender points (because it's terrible), but Shell's going to be untackleable.  The guy had an offer to play for Saban at 'Bama but his girlfriend had twins, so he landed with the hometown team.  He's a beast.  Sunseri will be efficient, but not great.  Gonna be a tough homecoming.

Doesn't the line drop when the favorite is attracting too little money, or the dog doesn't have enough of a following?  Not sure that its a good omen........maybe the "sharps" have low expectations of UB as well?  I think it has been Pitt's schitzo nature that has people puzzled/nervous.  I think they (Pitt) will show up and have a statement game; they need back into the bowl picture in a hurry; this should be the first step.

The line is dropping to even out the money.  More money is being bet on UB at +12 or +11, so the line drops to +10 to attract money on the other side.  The "sharps" aren't that sharp.  It is just crowdsourcing and where the fulcrum is placed is what the crowd (re:  bettors) think.  That they are right/close often is just an endorsement of the success of crowdsourcing.

Doesn't the line drop when the favorite is attracting too little money, or the dog doesn't have enough of a following?  Not sure that its a good omen........maybe the "sharps" have low expectations of UB as well?  I think it has been Pitt's schitzo nature that has people puzzled/nervous.  I think they (Pitt) will show up and have a statement game; they need back into the bowl picture in a hurry; this should be the first step.

The line is dropping to even out the money.  More money is being bet on UB at +12 or +11, so the line drops to +10 to attract money on the other side.  The "sharps" aren't that sharp.  It is just crowdsourcing and where the fulcrum is placed is what the crowd (re:  bettors) think.  That they are right/close often is just an endorsement of the success of crowdsourcing.

Every day is an education :-)  And to think, when some of us were kids the biggest bet was, "I bet my dad can beat your dad....."  Sad day when the sharps ain't sharp....could mean that those that we think dull may not be so dull (   I'm hoping :-)     )

Doesn't the line drop when the favorite is attracting too little money, or the dog doesn't have enough of a following?  Not sure that its a good omen........maybe the "sharps" have low expectations of UB as well?  I think it has been Pitt's schitzo nature that has people puzzled/nervous.  I think they (Pitt) will show up and have a statement game; they need back into the bowl picture in a hurry; this should be the first step.

I do probably have it wrong.  I assumed that when people or betting like crazy on Buffalo to even it out the drop the line.   That is how my mind works but I have never placed a bet in vegas.  I should have kept reading.  Thanks for the education. 

Im going to say Pitt 35 UB 10

Pitt comes into this game struggling at 2 - 4 and a surprising loss to Youngstown State. I thought that that UB will be a 12 point underdog. They were. The line has dropped down to 11 and now down to 10 with an over/under of 54.5. 20 picks in and only 6 for our Bulls. We are predicting this game at 34-23 Pitt.

Pitt 28
UB 24