I agree with what others say - that BT or other sites will have a hard time predicting how a team that had to replace 90% of their minutes will perform. That said - I think we probably should expect this to be a down year. When I look at the assumptions underlying #246, specifically the Adj. Offensive Efficiency (99.4 vs 105.7 last year) and Adj. Defensive Efficiency (105.0 vs 103.7), I feel that barttorvik is being a bit pessimistic relative to our prospects. I can see our offense being down from last year, but below the MAC average?? I don't think so. I am hopeful the drop off will be smaller than they predict, in the range of 102-103. I also am optimistic our defense is better than last year - in fact I would hope it improves to at least our average level of past few years of 101-102. Our Adj Def Efficiency will be key to me as to how this team does (I know I am a broken record on this point! )
All that said, my expectation is the middle of the MAC with rankings somewhere between 140 - 185, a down year for sure. However, this is in part due to players needing time to get comfortable playing with one another. If things go well they could be a team that presents a challenge to say a Toledo or Akron in Cleveland.