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DocCas86

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DocCas86 last won the day on July 30

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  1. Well if we are the top MAC team per this site...hope the site predictions are better this year than the previous five years. May be we will not get to find out if they are right. 😞
  2. I agree conference only is scenario where they play...Unfortunately I think no basketball a real possibility. A real optimistic version could be a regional holiday tournament with Syracuse, Bona, Buffalo and Siena ( Vermont or Umass) ok that last one won't happen. I can dream can't I?
  3. Barttovik has them at #189, but this is incomplete as it does not include contributions from a couple of JUCO transfers. Akron is a hard team to predict, but I think they will be in 140 - 160 range, but definitely not top 2 in MAC. They have LCJ who is likely good for close to 20 ppg. Camron Reece (SR) and Greg Tribble (SO) are returning. They combined for ~9 ppg last year - BT has them doubling that. You also have a couple of transfers Maishe Dailey (Iowa - 3-4 ppg) and Bryan Trimble Jr (St Johns - 2-3 ppg) that they are expecting a combined 16 ppg. Finally they have a couple of JUCO transfers - Taylor Currie (Mott CC - averaged 24 ppg) and Jemaine Marshall (from FL Southwestern - where he averaged 10 ppg). So a lot of new faces so I expect a lot of ups and downs and ~ 0.500 season?
  4. Here is another view on the track record of this ranking. The fact that the blue and green bars are relatively close indicates that the site does a reasonable job of projecting ranking of the top MAC team. However, in last five seasons, they only picked the top team once - the Bulls 2018-19 team - which was a bit of a no-brainer. Here are write-ups for the other projected top teams over past five years. 2015-16: Central Michigan - Predicted #61 / Actual #158: https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/11907 2016-17: Buffalo - Predicted #68 / Actual #122: https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/13503 2017-18: Western Michigan - Predicted #93 / Actual #188: https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/15011 2019-20: Toledo - Predicted #80 / Actual #152: https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/17718
  5. That would be my guess as well.
  6. Maybe a little early - but trying to get through the initial dog days of August. CollegesportsMadness.com has annual top 144 teams. So far they have listed two MAC teams: Miami (OH) - #144 Ohio - #127 They indicated that there are two more teams remaining from MAC. Currently they are #99-Pepperdine, so two remaining teams they have ranked in top 100. To put the preseason rankings into perspective, I looked into how well they predict ranking. Here are their results for the past 9 years: As you can see not an exact science. Their biggest miss was 2018-19 when they predicted us to be #74. That said, I decided to also check how good they are at predicting order of finish in the MAC. As you can see, over the past nine years, if they predicted a team to finish first or second, the likelihood is slightly better than 50/50 (55.6%) of finishing in top 3.
  7. I borrowed your data and combined with rankings from Massey. I graphed number of players on Offense + Defense watch list. The correlation for all years is not great, but 2016 (underperformed) and 2019 (outperformed) brings correlation down. Note Massey has us ranked at 74 for 2020 which is included in the data.
  8. First off, thank you for sorting through the charts. Second - it does appear that the conference has upgraded on the defensive side over time.
  9. Hey thanks for sharing - would be curious to see grouped in two ways - first group the awards by category Offense (Rimington, Outland, O'Brien, Biletnikoff, Walker, Mackey), Defense (Butkus, Nagurski, Thorpe and Benarik), Special Teams (Groza, Guy) and All Other (Hornung, Maxwell, Camp and Wuerffel). My thinking would be get some insight as to how offense vs defense are perceived). The other thing I was thining is group by category so you could see trends. That is if you have time - interest.
  10. I took a little time this morning to compile the list for 2020 top scorers. As you can see, 247 did not have ratings for most of these players. VC had Justin Turner and Jayvon ranked at 3.0, and Eugene German and Loren Christian Jackson at 2.5, but not really predicting the success for these players.. I would be interested if anyone sees a pattern here. Collectively the players with 247 ranking above 0.85, averaged 7.6 ppg, with Tahjai Teague (SR / 14.4 ppg / 0.8824 rank), Ishmael El-Amin (JR/ 13.8 ppg / 0.8616 rank) and Jeenathan Williams (SO / 11.6 ppg / 0.9368).
  11. I started to compile this list this morning. I thought it would be easy. I wonder if I was set up 😉 by MuchMany. What I noticed right off the bat, is that most of the top 10 scorers in the MAC over the past five seasons did not have a ranking in my data. So my first reaction was that possibly this was a function of how I compiled my initial data. So I set about trying to manually fill in missing 247 rankings. What I observed was that either they had a ranking of NA or no profile was available on 247Sports. So what do I conclude from work done so far. Rankings, when available can be somewhat predictive of success, but overall 247sports does not review many of the players that make it in the MAC, so a very limited source. It may be worth noting that verbalcommits had profiles for each of the players with list of teams that offered scholarship - this is another potential piece of the puzzle. But I may have to face the fact that based on public information that I have discovered - I will have to trust the coaches / staff to come up with good prospects. 😉
  12. Well definitely like what you are thinking!
  13. Exception, as in a big man who is ranked greater than 0.85 who will have successful career? If so, definitely hope he is an exception.
  14. I thought I would look into how predictive the 247sports score is for predicting success in the MAC. I focused on recruits with rankings 0.85 or better. Starting with the incoming class of 2011, there were a total of 24 recruits in this bucket. What I observed is that for Guards / Small Forwards there is a fair amount of success, but the PF / C in the group (a small sample size of six) were not that productive during their MAC careers. The lone exception was Seth Dugan / Western Michigan, in particular his senior year. Note that I took the position from 247 profile - I did not attempt to fix.
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