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31 minutes ago, 121Merrimac said:

Another exception to Doc’s list, I think, is Skogman.  

Exception, as in a big man who is ranked greater than 0.85 who will have successful career?  If so, definitely hope he is an exception.

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54 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

... definitely hope he is an exception.

Yes, I hope so.  Maybe I jumped the gun a bit.  Apologies, he hasn’t actually played yet. 

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1 minute ago, 121Merrimac said:

Yes, I hope so.  Maybe I jumped the gun a bit.  Apologies, he hasn’t actually played yet. 

Well definitely like what you are thinking!

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6 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

Well definitely like what you are thinking!

(I saw the Ohio recruit at the bottom of the table, and incorrectly thought it was their most recent recruit)

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On 7/25/2020 at 8:53 AM, MuchMany said:

Thanks Doc, that's an interesting list of names with clearly varied career outcomes.

I'm more thinking of guys who come in less heralded and become top players in the conference (CJ). It feels like the depth of talent and potential these days doesn't get captured by 247 or anyone else simply because it would be an enormous amount of challenging work to do so. The rise in consistent quality of high-end mid-major programs in the past 5 years or so is evidence of this talent pool that programs are doing a great job of identifying and developing.

It might be interesting to look at the top 10 in MAC scoring or PER the past five years and see their recruiting rankings.

I started to compile this list this morning.  I thought it would be easy.  I wonder if I was set up 😉 by MuchMany.  What I noticed right off the bat, is that most of the top 10 scorers in the MAC over the past five seasons did not have a ranking in my data.  So my first reaction was that possibly this was a function of how I compiled my initial data.  So I set about trying to manually fill in missing 247 rankings.  What I observed was that either they had a ranking of NA or no profile was available on 247Sports. 

So what do I conclude from work done so far.  Rankings, when available can be somewhat predictive of success, but overall 247sports does not review many of the players that make it in the MAC, so a very limited source.  It may be worth noting that verbalcommits had profiles for each of the players with list of teams that offered scholarship - this is another potential piece of the puzzle.  But I may have to face the fact that based on public information that I have discovered - I will have to trust the coaches / staff to come up with good prospects. 😉

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I took a little time this morning to compile the list for 2020 top scorers.  As you can see, 247 did not have ratings for most of these players.  VC had Justin Turner and Jayvon ranked at 3.0, and Eugene German and Loren Christian Jackson at 2.5, but not really predicting the success for these players..

image.png.63462641b64cf69c573a82bf4ec12f33.png

I would be interested if anyone sees a pattern here.

Collectively the players with 247 ranking above 0.85, averaged 7.6 ppg, with Tahjai Teague (SR / 14.4 ppg / 0.8824 rank), Ishmael El-Amin (JR/ 13.8 ppg / 0.8616 rank) and Jeenathan Williams (SO / 11.6 ppg / 0.9368).

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