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I believe this schedule achieves the MAC's goal of making sure that everyone plays a team at least once.  If this is the case and there are no further makeups, Buffalo will get out of three road games

at Akron

at CMU

at EMU

While those last two would be nice wins, at this point if we can get this team out of long bus rides the week leading up to the Tournament, I think that is more beneficial than a couple of easy wins.

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Road game 7 PM Tuesday night with a home game at 2 PM on a Thursday afternoon, then a road game at 2 PM Saturday.  That's a lot of travel and a tight turnaround, hope they're ready to go.  Might be good to get the players in the groove ahead of the 3-games-in-3-days needed to win the MAC tournament.

 

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40 minutes ago, UBlearns said:

Road game 7 PM Tuesday night with a home game at 2 PM on a Thursday afternoon, then a road game at 2 PM Saturday.  That's a lot of travel and a tight turnaround, hope they're ready to go.  Might be good to get the players in the groove ahead of the 3-games-in-3-days needed to win the MAC tournament.

 

Our boys have had so much time off I think this will be good for them. Also after the final regular season game there’s about 5 days off before the MAC tournament. Plenty of time to rest 

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Akron is an interesting team. They have the leading scorer in the MAC (Loren Christian Jackson). A guy in Enrique Freeman who is 2nd in the MAC in rebounding, first in blocks and FG%. And Tremble who makes the most 3s in the conference. And a solid player in Ali Ali. Dangerous team come the MAC tourney. I say all this bc I am watching them beat Ball St. despite having been down double digits and LCJ not having a good game. 

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26 minutes ago, DooleyBull06 said:

Ball St currently shooting the lights out against Kent St.  They are up 57-31 at half.

Have this on in the background while doing work from home...glad we didn't see this Ball St team in either of our matchups. BSU commentators were just talking about the tournament and called Buffalo "the team no one wants to play,"  and "most talented team in the MAC by far" among other things. 

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35 minutes ago, DooleyBull06 said:

Ball St currently shooting the lights out against Kent St.  They are up 57-31 at half.

Ball State up by 26 now with a little over 12 minutes left...would take monumental collapse.  Kent is a game I think the Bulls can win.  Kent also has Ohio (another L?)...they would potentially be 12-7.   

Bottom line, more important the Bulls get some w's then worry about seeding.

Edited by DocCas86
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Taking the latest composite rankings I plotted the game results adjusted to neutral court (home court worth 2.5 points) against the difference in ranking. 

Here are the assumed rankings I used based on average of Massey, Kenpom, Sagarin and Barttorvik:

image.png.458cedb8fd07a2ecf20828fcfff44936.png

Based on the above table - the probabilities on neutral court  against top 4 would be 50% +/-.  However, our relative ranking based on performance against top 4, would go down and so would probabilities.  So to set realistic expectations for Cleveland - probability that we win three is likely in neighborhood of 12.5% (max).  I would say Toledo probably has best chance - ~25%.

There are only 13 observations so you would expect some overall volatility. Based on MAC composite rankings you see how much we have underperformed against top teams and how we have generally overperformed (mainly Miami OH and Ball St) against lower ranked teams.

image.png.fcab62d5dde15803757b05b28ece54cf.png

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35 minutes ago, DooleyBull06 said:

With Ohio’s win today they moved up to the 3 seed. I kinda wanna avoid them as a potential first round matchup. Their roster present mismatches that worry me.

Agreed, a 4-5 matchup against Kent State seems like best situation right now. Let Ohio and BG duke it out in first round. 

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35 minutes ago, DooleyBull06 said:

With Ohio’s win today they moved up to the 3 seed. I kinda wanna avoid them as a potential first round matchup. Their roster present mismatches that worry me.

Ohio can be dangerous.  They had to play some without Preston, otherwise they would likely be a higher seed.

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2 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

Ohio can be dangerous.  They had to play some without Preston, otherwise they would likely be a higher seed.

They can score. They have size and depth. Are versatile inside and out. I just feel like they present mismatches for us. For example Preston can post up Rondo. That isn’t something we’ve seen often this season. Van Der Plas can play inside and out. For some weird reason they and BG seem to worry me most. 

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3 hours ago, DocCas86 said:

Big game in MAC tonight BGSU @ Akron @ 7 pm CBS Sports. Certainly some seeding implications.  Akron currently # 2 with 4 losses and BGSU #6 with 7 losses.

Watching this currently. Both teams came out scoring before the first media timeout. All the MAC east teams has difficult schedules bc we all play each other. Cannibalism. 

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4 minutes ago, NYS Bulls said:

BG is going to really put the pressure on UB Saturday 

This was an impressive road victory for BG. Team effort whereas Akron was all LCJ. BG really starting to build momentum. 

Interesting note regarding defending Akron. Two schools of thought. 1) play tough man to man defense and let the chips fall where they may or 2) let LCJ go off and shut down all other players. 

Tonight BG let LCJ go off in the second half but there was no second man for Akron to step up. Whereas Turner didn’t have his best game but other players stepped up for BG.

MAC tournament is up for grabs. Hopefully we win 2 of the next 3 to go into Cleveland with positive vibes.

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7 minutes ago, DooleyBull06 said:

This was an impressive road victory for BG. Team effort whereas Akron was all LCJ. BG really starting to build momentum. 

Interesting note regarding defending Akron. Two schools of thought. 1) play tough man to man defense and let the chips fall where they may or 2) let LCJ go off and shut down all other players. 

Tonight BG let LCJ go off in the second half but there was no second man for Akron to step up. Whereas Turner didn’t have his best game but other players stepped up for BG.

MAC tournament is up for grabs. Hopefully we win 2 of the next 3 to go into Cleveland with positive vibes.

I’m worried they lose all three and score Akron in the first round 

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35 minutes ago, NYS Bulls said:

I’m worried they lose all three and score Akron in the first round 

If they lose all 3 games, which I don't deny is a concern, I don't care who the matchup is.  I don't see how the team believes it can win as they would be 0-8 against top 6 teams. 

Toughest of three games IMO tomorrow night.

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