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2021-2022 Roster


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5 minutes ago, MuchMany said:

60 is very good. I think they're far off on us lacking depth though. Granted much of it depends on highly touted but unproven freshman, but this feels like our deepest team in years.

Depth on this team can be good...as of yet it is a bit uncertain, but I agree with you depth should be good.  I liked the description of Williams

...Williams is considered the dude of all dudes in that league. Quiet, determined, takes no BS.

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60 is solid and realistic

I'm higher than most but I think the team that cbs said they could be like (17/18) is the floor I have for this current years team.

If developmentally the players continue on their path specifically skogman and hardnett. This team is going to be very very good especially if they get any sort of 3pt shot and PG depth from new comers or a returning player

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18 hours ago, Tee4three said:

60 is solid and realistic

I'm higher than most but I think the team that cbs said they could be like (17/18) is the floor I have for this current years team.

If developmentally the players continue on their path specifically skogman and hardnett. This team is going to be very very good especially if they get any sort of 3pt shot and PG depth from new comers or a returning player

I agree with you that 60 seems fair.  We seem to be a deeper team.  I have a summary of what potential there is from scoring perspective compared to BT.

image.png.0e1ae072f1593229b9295a2d288f6591.png

BT has us ranked #82.  Here is why I feel we will do better than this:

  • Williams, Mballa, Segu and Harnett are projected to be less productive than last year.  I think there is a slight upside, but would expect floor of same as last year.
  • Graves vs Jack - I agree with BT that we lose a little here - about 4 ppg seems reasonable.
  • Brewton / Skogman - I am hoping that they make up for differential with Jack
  • Rest of Team - You are essentially swapping Jones / Perry for Nickelberry - seems like fair to rate as a wash. 
  • Overall average ppg I expect will be similar to last year - with likely more diverse contributions.
  • On rebounding / defense BT has us dropping a bit and I don't see a reason for that expectation.

 

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19 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

I agree with you that 60 seems fair.  We seem to be a deeper team.  I have a summary of what potential there is from scoring perspective compared to BT.

image.png.0e1ae072f1593229b9295a2d288f6591.png

BT has us ranked #82.  Here is why I feel we will do better than this:

  • Williams, Mballa, Segu and Harnett are projected to be less productive than last year.  I think there is a slight upside, but would expect floor of same as last year.
  • Graves vs Jack - I agree with BT that we lose a little here - about 4 ppg seems reasonable.
  • Brewton / Skogman - I am hoping that they make up for differential with Jack
  • Rest of Team - You are essentially swapping Jones / Perry for Nickelberry - seems like fair to rate as a wash. 
  • Overall average ppg I expect will be similar to last year - with likely more diverse contributions.
  • On rebounding / defense BT has us dropping a bit and I don't see a reason for that expectation.

 

I have Williams, Mballa, Segu, Hardnett around 58 PPG combined. 
 

PPG team wise will probably be similar. Rebounds per game might drop just slightly (we were #1 in the nation in RPG). But I see up being somewhere top 20.

The biggest expected increase is probably free throw average. I expect them to be ballpark 75% as a team this season. I previously covered it and they brought in some fantastic free throw shooters (Jack, Perry, Jones).

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40 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

I agree with you that 60 seems fair.  We seem to be a deeper team.  I have a summary of what potential there is from scoring perspective compared to BT.

image.png.0e1ae072f1593229b9295a2d288f6591.png

BT has us ranked #82.  Here is why I feel we will do better than this:

  • Williams, Mballa, Segu and Harnett are projected to be less productive than last year.  I think there is a slight upside, but would expect floor of same as last year.
  • Graves vs Jack - I agree with BT that we lose a little here - about 4 ppg seems reasonable.
  • Brewton / Skogman - I am hoping that they make up for differential with Jack
  • Rest of Team - You are essentially swapping Jones / Perry for Nickelberry - seems like fair to rate as a wash. 
  • Overall average ppg I expect will be similar to last year - with likely more diverse contributions.
  • On rebounding / defense BT has us dropping a bit and I don't see a reason for that expectation.

 

I think we may lose some overall production in the Graves vs Jack column, but I expect Jack to be much more efficient than Graves was last year. 

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1 hour ago, mikescherrer8 said:

I have Williams, Mballa, Segu, Hardnett around 58 PPG combined. 
 

PPG team wise will probably be similar. Rebounds per game might drop just slightly (we were #1 in the nation in RPG). But I see up being somewhere top 20.

The biggest expected increase is probably free throw average. I expect them to be ballpark 75% as a team this season. I previously covered it and they brought in some fantastic free throw shooters (Jack, Perry, Jones).

Looking at recent history I see that I may have underestimated Williams, Segu and Hardnett, and your estimate is certainly reasonable.  I was thinking that we have a bit more 3 point shooting this year with the addition of Jack, Brewton (if he can recapture Coastal form), Skogman (if his numbers based on limited attempts continues) and Jones (if his JUCO numbers translate up to D1).  This may mean less opportunity for the top 4 to increase upon the 51.5 they averaged collectively last year.  So I will split the difference with you adding 2.5 points to 56 and dropping rest of team to roughly 29.  I do not have as lofty expectation for this team as the 2018-19 team, but it is worth noting that I am expecting scoring balance for this years team to be similar to that team. 

image.png.d43ec1dd3a55160121b4e672e3aac649.png

 

 

Edited by DocCas86
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It’s no secret our big 3 is gonna have to carry us and be thee guys. Everyone else can settle into being high end role players who are consistent and occasionally have a big night. I think it’s unfair to expect the freshman to make immediate big time impacts. If they do that will be a bonus. But the big expectation is that guys like Jack, Brewton and Skogman step up and be contributors. That’s why that article express concern over our depth. We have the bodies, it’s just a matter of who is gonna step up in support of the big 3. Year 1 under Whitesell, he struggled with a rotation and sorting out roles. Last year he was better and the results were MAC title game. This year we need just a little more production from guys 6-9. That way guys aren’t gased in the title game like last year.

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More quotes from Whitesell in this video:

https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?ref=watch_permalink&v=880536935929458

Notably he mentioned that Hardnett has competition from Skogman to start, Jones is ready to play a lot of PG minutes and Mading is making a bid for a lot of minutes.

I think all of this was semi-expected, but it's exciting to hear him speak highly of younger guys.  We know what we have in the returners but if they're being outplayed by young guys I think that's what takes us from #77 in KenPom last year to having the ceiling of a bubble-caliber team.

Edited by trueblue32
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2 hours ago, trueblue32 said:

More quotes from Whitesell in this video:

https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?ref=watch_permalink&v=880536935929458

Notably he mentioned that Hardnett has competition from Skogman to start, Jones is ready to play a lot of PG minutes and Mading is making a bid for a lot of minutes.

I think all of this was semi-expected, but it's exciting to hear him speak highly of younger guys.  We know what we have in the returners but if they're being outplayed by young guys I think that's what takes us from #77 in KenPom last year to having the ceiling of a bubble-caliber team.

Im gonna be honest, if that’s true about Harding, then are further ahead than expected. I did not think he was gonna be ready for this season, but if he is? We have a bit of a stacked front court. Same goes for Jones. He was a standout last year in JUCO and if he can provide meaningful bench minutes, then we are looking at a deeper guard depth than expected.
 

This is definitely the year which Skogman needs to show us something. Third year with the team, and it’s that time where he should start providing meaningful minutes. An athletic big guy who can do just about anything at his size.

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1 hour ago, mikescherrer8 said:

Im gonna be honest, if that’s true about Harding, then are further ahead than expected. I did not think he was gonna be ready for this season, but if he is? We have a bit of a stacked front court. Same goes for Jones. He was a standout last year in JUCO and if he can provide meaningful bench minutes, then we are looking at a deeper guard depth than expected.
 

This is definitely the year which Skogman needs to show us something. Third year with the team, and it’s that time where he should start providing meaningful minutes. An athletic big guy who can do just about anything at his size.

I am trying to determine my expectations for this year - I have been kind of settling in that this team would be ranked around 60 (80-90 from bt and kenpom).  Then I hear good things about Skogman, Jack, Jones and Mading (I had heard earlier his size might be a problem) and I start getting a bit more optimistic.  So I am trying to get back to reality and compare to 2018-19 team by three brackets (top 3, rest of team guards, and rest of team bigs).

image.png.796c33f30a114440275b4c59b44baf58.png

Top 3 - I give an edge to the 2018-19 team, but I don't think the difference is large.

Guards -  There are more options this year, but some uncertainty about what we have this year.  I am inclined to rate the current players lower, but there is a possibility that Jack / Brewton and Jones could put up similar offensive numbers - question will be if they provide the defensive spark they got from Caruthers / Jordan.

Bigs - I think I have to rate Hardnett / Skogman over Mcrae / Williams.

Conclusion - I still thinking ranking around 60 is reasonable, but... appreciate others perspective.

Edited by DocCas86
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41 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

Yes true but if things go well, I don't expect we will need much from either

Agreed (it’s funny).  (Seriously though) Even if their improvement is only behind closed doors in practice, they will elevate the production of their teammates.  

I feel either could go off for a 10&7 type game at any time, if called upon.   Sure, those games may be outliers.  Even reducing these numbers to 2 points and 2 rebounds per game, over the season that would be helpful. 

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I think Mading could possibly get some minutes at the SF position. He’d be a mismatch due to his size and has the speed and athleticism to score the ball. From his HS videos it also seems that he has a pretty decent long range shot. Hopefully our younger core gets playing time against Daemon 

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I have been holding out to give my opinions on this team and the season and I cannot seem to hold back my thoughts any longer.  The negativity that comes out on this board especially during games is concerning and very off putting.  Sometimes it seems like some of us want to get on the team or the coaches rather than be a fan of the team.  I am all for constructive criticism but have a handle on the big picture please before you comment.  Please take some time to digest and keep your eyes on the big picture.   Please that's all I ask, this will make for a much better experience for all of us.

This appears to be one of the best teams we have ever had at our beloved UB!  Lets enjoy it and get behind this time like we did the CJ/Perk/Harris team.  I know many of you are not happy with the coach.  I understand the criticism but I think he has gotten a bad wrap thus far.  Is he the best in game coach we have ever had, no far from it.  Is he strong at making in game adjustments, no.  But that being said, he is just as loved and respected by his players as Hurley and Oats was.  These kids play hard for him and want to succeed for him.  He is a hell of a recruiter.  The recruiting has not fallen off since coach took over, the class he brought in this year, if they stay may go down as one of the strongest in school history.  Coach Whitesell has been able to avoid significant transfer unlike many other coaches around the country.  The team chemistry appears to be amazing and the kids seems to enjoy playing in the program.  The style of play is exciting both to play in and watch and should be a strong factor in future recruiting.  Coach Whitesell is not a big name coach but the facts are he has over 400 college coaching wins and these kids love him.  I think he deserves more credit and some of us on this board should stop looking at ways to shoot him down.  My biggest criticism of this team and his coaching is the lack of ball movement.  I would love to see more ball movement, get those guys willing to make the extra pass to turn that good shot into a great shot.  He has not won the big games in this time hear yet, but lets see if he can get it done this year and lets enjoy the journey.  Please keel in mind this is a marathon not a sprint, the goal is to be prepare for Cleveland, so we are playing our best basketball by that time.

My thoughts on the players thus far:

Rondo:  He is nails.  His jump shot, albeit not the prettiest thing in the world, it is deadly.  Leave him open and he will make u pay.  His defensive effort has been very high and has been a catalyst on this team.  I would like to see him try to attack off the dribble more and kick out when the help comes as he is tough to stay in front off, his hesitation is one of the best I have ever seen.  Rondo is an amazing player and in order to make an NCAA run we need him to lead us there and I think this may be the year he is ready to do so. 

Williams:  The work he has put in since his freshman year is really paying off.  He is the toughest matchup in the MAC.  He can shoot the three and take anyone off the dribble.  I would still like to see him take the ball to his off hand as defenders try so hard to cut off his strong hand.  He has been carrying us thus far on the season.  He is in for a truly magical season.  As the season goes along I foresee teams trying to take him away where if he takes on the role of being a playmaker, we could have a lot of fun and there will be a lot of open shots if we are willing to move the ball.   His rebounding continues to improve and I have liked what I have seen from him on the defensive end thus far this year.  If I am coach Whitesell I am in his ear every day challenging him to try and make a name for himself on the glass and on the defensive side of the ball, that is how he finds his way into the NBA. 

Jack:  I have been impressed with his effort and he is more athletic then I realized he was.   I would like to see his shot have more arc and be less flat but you cannot argue with the results.  This kid can flat out shoot and on this team there will be some open shots to be had.  Jack may well be the X Factor on this team, he plays well and the Bulls play well.  If he is shooting the ball well, it opens up the floor for so many good things.  His rebounding is great and his defense is not strong but I love the effort and passion he brings.  I really like this kid and cannot wait to see how he gels with the big 3.  By seasons end I suspect we will have a big 4!

Mballa:  Best rebounder I have ever seen at UB!  His hands are quick and he is simply relentless on the defensive end of the floor.  He brings an attitude and a toughness to this team that is critical to our success.  He clearly has worked on his free throw shooting, handle and foot work.  I understand why they try to iso him as he is a tough guard in that situation but too often it ends in a poor shot or a turnover.  I would like to see him become more controlled on offense and I think we should try to get him the ball posting on the block more than we do currently.  I love this kids game and we will go as far as Mballa can take us this season.  His rebounding and defense set the tone for this team and I cannot wait to see how this season plays out.  I also pray he decides to come back for another year next year.  

Bertrum:  I love his passion for hoops and this University and how dedicated he is.  But that being said he is not a player that deserves minutes at this level/  His length allows him to contribute in certain situations but he has too many limitations to contribute or get minutes at this level.  I have been saying this for years but year after year his minutes increase.  This season he has three guys behind him, Harnett, Skogman, Mading that are all better and deserving of more minutes.  I suspect he is getting so many minutes now as Hardnett works his way back to game strength.  Bertrum has a role on this team, it is a captain and as a leader who plays when the opponent has a huge interior player and we need to body him and give up some fouls.  That should be his role and I suspect it will be as we move along in the season.

Skogman:  He is a stretch four who can really shot it and should generate some open shots for us that I am confident he can hit.  Like Rondo his shot is far from pretty but effective.  He has limitation both on the glass and defensively, especially on the screen and role defense.  He is a big part of our future and I think we will continue to see him grow and hope one day he grows into the player we all hope he can be.  I am confident in this coaching staffs ability to develop bigs. 

Brewton:  He still does not look comfortable and does not appear to know his role on this team yet.  At this point I am not sure he will figure that out in time before he leaves.  All we hear is he is an amazing shooter but we have yet to see it on the floor.  This team really does need a scorer off the bench who can space the floor and give us some minutes and consistent scoring off the bench but I am not sure he is capable of that.  I hope so, but time will tell.  I will say this, his body language each time he shoots it says he is confident, he thinks they are all going in, but they seldomly seem to at this point.  I hope that changes cause like Jack, Brewton could be one of the X factors for this team.  If he plays well the Bulls will be really tough to beat.  Defensively he is a liability especially against bigger athletic guards and that is not going to change. 

Hardnett:  I really think his game is a perfect compliment to this team.  He needs to be starting with Segu, Jack, Williams and Mballa.  That is our best lineup and is the lineup that will take us to the NCAA tourney.  I know he is working his way into game shape and in time will work his way into the starting group.  He brings all the things this starting lineup needs, another strong rebounder and defender, toughness, attitude and an unselfish athlete who can run the floor.  I really like his game and he is the perfect compliment to our big 4!  I would like to see him develop a consistent jump shot and become a better screener to free up some of our wings.  Hardnett starting is when this team goes on a run!

Jones:  I have been really impressed with this kid.  It looks like we have found our future point guard.  He appears to be a  great rebounder and solid defender.  I am really hoping Segu takes him under his wing and teaches him the importance of his role on the future of this program and the importance of the defense and ball pressure that he provides to this team.  Not sure about his jump shot as we have seen so few opportunities for him in that role.   I cannot wait to watch this kid develop and I am excited for his future.  Says alot about his game that he is able to contribute as he has thus far as a point guard as a freshman.  

Mading:  This kid is going to be an impact player as a freshman.  Remember CJ his freshman year in Cameron Indoor?  I suspect at some point this season we will see a performance like that from Mading.  He is raw and has a lot to learn but he has all the tools to be a multi time player of the year in this conference.  Give him a few months to get his feet wet and I think you will see him carve out a role for himself and that is when we start to see what this kid is capable of.  The sky is the limit for this kid and I cannot wait to see how this plays out.  I am fearful he will get discouraged and transfer if he does not get the minutes he feel he deserves.  As of today he has the following players in front of him Bertrum, Hardnett, Skogman, Fagan.  If I am the coaching staff I am playing Mading over Bertrum and Fagan from Day one.  Once he figures out how to defend and rebound at this level I would play him more if his play warrants it.  This kid is a star in the making and I want to encourage that and not limit his game behind players that are not part of the future of this program, Brock and Fagan,

Fagan:  I love this kid in many of the ways we love Bertrum.  He is dedicated to this team and his effort to come back from multiple significant knee injuries should be celebrated but, like Bertrum, this team has too much talent for him to be getting minutes unless someone is in foul trouble.  He has a nice jumper and is a solid rebounder but his defense is not strong and he tends to foul too often.  I love his effort but we have too much talent for him to be seeing the floor.

Blocker:  Kid looks solid but he needs time to develop like Mading.  I like what I see but he needs to slow down and let the game come to him a bit more.  I think he has a bright future and cannot wait to watch him develop.  For now sit back and learn as much as you can from our seniors so next year you are ready to contribute.  Jones, Mading, Blocker sound to me like the next big 3 for UB basketball!

Williamson:  Please red shirt!

Perry:  Classic undersized UB guard.  Tough as nails and willing to get in your face!  Great rebounder for his size and will not have a hard time getting to the line.  His lack of speed will be an issue at this level especially on the defensive end of the floor.  Hope he continues to develop a jump shot and can carve out a defensive stopper role on this team.  I see him playing a role like Caruthers did on a very strong UB team at some point in the future.

I love this team and I think we are in for a hell of a season.  I for one cannot wait for the next game and I cannot wait to see how this team develops as the season goes on.  My prediction, we play Ohio in the MAC championship and win a close game in OT.  UB seals the win with free throws down the stretch, yes free throws!  Buffalo goes into tourney as an 11 seed and wins another first round upset in a route led by Willams and Segu! This is a special team and I would love to see more encouragement and love for this team as the season progresses.  Lets fill the stands for as many games as we can.  I will be out in February to see a few games and I for one cannot wait.  Go Bulls!

 

  

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Barttorvik's site is now updated and displaying Wins Above Bubble, which I think is a good measure of how the team performs this year as hitting our ceiling would be a bubble caliber team imo.

So far we're 50th in the country with 0.3 WAB, Bonaventure is 2nd in the country with 1.4 WAB.

https://barttorvik.com/trank.php?sort=34&begin=20211101&end=20220501&conlimit=All&year=2022&top=0&hteam=&quad=5&rpi=#

Beating SFA and Saint Louis on neutral floors this week would add an additional 0.54 WAB which would put us in the current Top 20

WAB definition for those not familiar:

Wins Above Bubble (WAB): The difference in the number of wins a team has compared to the expected number of wins an average "bubble" team would earn against a given teams' schedule.

Edited by trueblue32
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