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2021-2022 Roster


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2 hours ago, DooleyBull06 said:

Big roster. Wonder if anyone will redshirt? Perhaps a big.

Certainly will be tough finding minutes for everyone.  Here is current projected top 10 contributors:

image.png.59c1561ac8fe1b353f8c8ecf88e9639e.png

It is noteworthy that Skogman currently not in the projected top 10 - I am hopeful to see more from him this year, cutting into projected minutes for Bertram / Fagan. I would feel better about the team's future if we are getting 5-6 ppg from Skogman rather than from Bertram / Fagan.

In addition no projected significant minutes for any of the true Freshman, so a redshirt seems possible.

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8 minutes ago, MuchMany said:

From measurables and pictures alone, we're looking at a big, fit team.

And I'd wager significantly that Skogman will get more minutes than Brock this year.

This is skogmans third year with the team, redshirt sophomore, it’s his time to show was he has to offer. Vastly more athletic than Bertram and I believe Brock shouldn’t touch the floor unless there’s injury or major foul trouble. The same goes for Fagan. The ship has sailed with those 2.

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9 hours ago, HomeyG said:

Did he even dress last season for MBB?

No and I doubt he will this year either having already committed to the cfl. 
 

from what I have heard Dom basically just has an open invite to join the MBB team whenever he wants because he’s such a good teammate and influence on the guys, but it’s a very real possibility that despite him being on the roster he never actually steps foot in Alumni Arena

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1 hour ago, BullBoy said:

No and I doubt he will this year either having already committed to the cfl. 
 

from what I have heard Dom basically just has an open invite to join the MBB team whenever he wants because he’s such a good teammate and influence on the guys, but it’s a very real possibility that despite him being on the roster he never actually steps foot in Alumni Arena

Says a lot about his a young man with his journey at UB. Starting as a QB, transitioning to WR. A good enough athlete for football and basketball, but not a star in either. Obviously a great teammate that multiple coaches can see. Now he will get one more chance at a ring in football, then has a legit chance at a CFL career. In addition, he will have his bachelors and an advanced degree. That's a pretty good level of effort for a young man. I'm sure his future will be bright whatever he does.

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I was looking through the roster and was trying to figure out who I think would be playing the most this season. I think the following lineup makes the most sense as of right now. But, it's still a little early. And I was bored. Also adding some analysis on each player and what we should be expecting this season. And if you don't wanna read it all, I understand.


STARTERS                                                                                                  ESTIMATED MINUTES
F. Laquill Hardnett              JR.     6'8"  200                            22  
F. Josh Mballa                    SR.     6'7"   225                            32
F/W. Jeenathan Williams    SR.    6'5"  205                             32
G. Maceo Jack                    SR.    6'5"  190                             22
G. Rondo Segu                   SR.     6'0"  160                             32
____________________________________________________
KEY BENCH PLAYERS
G. Keishawn Brewton        SR.      6'2"   180                           22   
G. Ty Perry                         JR.      6'3"   215                            14
G. Curtis Jones                  SO.     6'5"   180                            12
C. David Skogman             SO.     6'10"  225                           12
____________________________________________________
RESERVES
C. Brock Bertram               GRAD  6'11"  240
F. Tra'von Fagan                GRAD  6'8"   210
____________________________________________________
INCOMING FRESHMAN
F. Zaakir Williamson           6'7"   240
G. Kidtrell Blocker              6'5"   190
F. Kuluel Mading                 6'9"  190



Laquill Hardnett - He's going to be a guy who is going to be crucial inside. A bit of a nuisance in the paint. Making easy buckets, getting tough rebounds. Last year he was really starting to find his groove as primarily a 4 player who from time to time takes a jump shot and even a 3. Overall, he needs to embrace life inside the paint. That's where he's most important. I would love to see him improve dramatically on the defensive side and to be confident getting to the rim. Much like last year, he will most likely get 20+ minutes a game and be needed for size.

Josh Mballa - One of the best and most consistent rebounders in UB history. A total ball hawk who has great awareness for ball placement when a shot is missed. Much like Hardnett, he is going to making a living this year inside the paint. As he should. But he's a guy who isn't afraid to take a chance at a mid range jumper or a close range jumper. I think he should refrain from taking 3's often because we don't really need that from him. He's a true 4 who plays like a 5. Expect him to be averaging double doubles on double doubles. This is his team for the leading alongside Williams and Segu. This will be his last year at UB, so, let's see him really shine.

Jeenathan Williams - Well, we all know how far Jeenathan has come. He is this best player on the team and one of the most talented players in the MAC, and most talented in all of mid-majors as far as I am concerned. He will most likely lead the team in points, just like last season. For a guy who has shooting guard size, he sure does play a lot bigger than he is. Expect his stat line to be near 20PPG 7 RPG 3APG. If he remains consistent, stays healthy, and the team is clicking, I have no doubt in my mind he is going to be the MAC player of the year. Much like Mballa and Segu, this is his team for the leading. He needs to be a leader and I have no doubt that the team will look at him as one. 

Maceo Jack - The debut of Mr. Jack himself. This is really going to be a very interesting year for Maceo Jack. He is entering a team where he is in the shadow of a 3 headed monster known as Mballa, Williams, and Segu. When he was at George Washington, he was heavily involved in their game plan. He was asked to do a lot more than I think he was capable of giving them. Constantly shoot the ball. Fast forward to the 2021-2022 season, I don't think he's going to be asked to do as much as he was at GW. I think this puts him in a position where he can play a bit more stress free and you might see a massive statistical improvement in his shooting. He is a good shooter, but was very inconsistent. Hot and cold. He is an amazing free throw shooter at a whopping 86%, and expect him to provide rebounding numbers. He is going to be getting a fair amount of minutes with his game experience, and I expect him to play well this season because he will be in a offense where he is not the most needed shooter.

Ronaldo Segu - As I've said, this is his team for the leading alongside Williams and Mballa. Quite possibly the most emotional player on this team. The most emotional since maybe Shannon Evans. A player that we have needed for quite some time who will show some emotion on the court and isn't afraid to speak his mind toward his teammates. Segu last season had really improved on his offensive game. With a stat line of 13-3-4, I expect Segu to repeat the same type of season, if not improve those numbers as well. The one thing I wish to see from Segu is become a better defender. I thought at times last year he really let people down with getting blown up on the defensive side of the ball. This is probably his last season with UB, and I hope that he helps lead us to a run toward the NCAA tournament. 

Keishawn Brewton - Now, I know there are people on the forum who maybe don't think Brewton is that good. Or think that he shouldn't be getting as many minutes as I think he will.  And he hasn't given you a reason to think so. His playstyle was pretty much just be a shooter. That's what was asked of him. But I think his role is going to change and that he will not only be a shooter, but to also become more of a playmaker. He's not going to be asked to just fire 3 pointers or mid range shots constantly, I think he is going to contribute to ball movement and to help set up better % shooting. He's destined to come in for Segu and to provide much needed guard depth at the 1. Don't give up on Brewton yet, because I think he can provide the team with very meaningful minutes. This is his last season with UB, expect him to play like it.

Ty Perry - A very interesting addition in the offseason. An addition that may not excite, but an addition that was needed. Especially at the 2 guard spot. A role playing guard who is probably going to be asked to shoot when he has good looks, play great defense, oh, and it doesn't hurt that his career free throw shooting is .802%. There's not a whole lot of expectation with Perry, but he's going to get minutes, he has game experience, he's a good shooter, and based on game film, not a bad defender. Expect some good things with him.

Curtis Jones - Some may ask, why do I think Curtis Jones here. Well, because he should be. He's coming off a great year with Indian Hills CC, his stat line there was 12.1 PPG, 6 RPG, 5.5 APG, and a whopping 87% free throw % (59/68). I don't know how that all will translate into D1 basketball. If that skillset pours over into practices and he shines, he will be getting minutes, and he might take away minutes from Jack and Perry. It's early but the potential for Jones is exciting and he has an opportunity to make a splash and impress the coaching staff, they are looking guard depth and he is going to be fighting for minutes. 

David Skogman - Skogman is entering his third year with the team, a redshirt sophomore. Since I would say Mitchell Watt, have we been looking for a big center type player who can provide meaningful minutes. This is the year that Skogman needs to show some life. He is an athletic, intelligent guy with a fair amount to prove. I don't think he is going to be asked to do a whole lot, but I sure as heck would like to see him out there playing meaningful minutes, play some good defense, getting down and dirty inside the paint to get baskets and rebounds. He's a guy who also has a jump shot and can shoot the 3 ball. I would like to see a little of all of that this year. I don't think he overtakes time away from Laquill Hardnett, but, you never know. If Hardnett plays poorly, Skogman has a chance to take over. His situation is a little exciting because now is his time to step up and provide the team with good playing time.

Brock Bertram - Grad student, a locker room guy who is great for morale and leadership. At this point in his career, I don't think Bertram should be getting any minutes, barring serious foul trouble or injury issues. I don't think it's wise to take minutes away from players who probably need it more. I'm glad he's on the team for morale, and that's about all. 

Tra'Von Fagan - Much like Bertram, same story here with Fagan. I think the ship has sailed with him getting any minutes. He is great for morale and leadership in the locker room, but that's it. If serious foul trouble looms, or injuries become an issue, maybe they get him on the floor. I would almost prefer Zaakir Williamson over Fagan, however.

Zaakir Williamson - I see a lot of Javon McCrea in this guy. Both are the same size, both play a similar style. At 6'7" and weighing around 240, this is the one guy I think might get any playing time out of the upcoming freshman, maybe Blocker gets some time. I don't know about red shirt statuses yet, but I'm just going off of what I saw from him playing in high school. He's a physical, big forward with tons of potential. Really good footwork on the inside where he can do damage in the same fashion as Josh Mballa does. He even has a decent jump shot which is pleasantly surprising. I don't know how they are going to fit him into the rotation here. I think if Hardnett and Skogman play poorly, injuries and foul trouble become present, then I think he might get minutes. This is all based off observations and I think his style translates well to D1 mid-major basketball and I think he might be the one recruit in this class who gets some play time. We will see as practices go on and we will see what happens with him. If he stands out in practice, and shows the coaching staff a lot of good things, I'm not sure he redshirts.

Kidtrell Blocker - Blocker is a very talented player. I would describe him as a bit of a slasher. He likes to take the ball to the rim and finish there. A hell of a dunker, has a nice shooting stroke with a nice jumper. He is an electric player in transition also who plays fast. This is a player who fits the style of the offense. His speed almost reminds me of Davonta Jordan with a mix of Jayvon Graves. His disrupts passing lanes often while on defense and does a really great job of getting in the face of his man. I don't know what happens because I think Curtis Jones might have the upper hand here. Maybe he flashes in practice and impresses and Jones does not, so they split minutes between the two. Maybe Jones and Perry both don't look great and Blocker rises up. And maybe foul trouble and injury happens and that's where Blocker really gets a lot of minutes. It's all too early yet and I don't know what's going to happen. But Buffalo really made out with a freakishly athletic guard in Blocker. Does he red shirt? Does he shine in practice and climbs up the roster and gets minutes? Who knows, it is still early.


Kuluel Mading - A very undersized forward with a lot of potential. I see him red shirting. I think he's a guy who really needs to put time into the weight room. Give him the Nick Perkins regimen. And I think next year he may provide good minutes at forward when roster room opens up a little more. He's a good inside guy who has a jump shot and can hit the 3 pointer. But I think his style and size doesn't translate well immediately. He looks like a deer trying to find its legs. I can see him being over powered if he were to instantly play. It's early, but, who knows what is going to happen. 

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Also, I would like to observe a stat that I think has frustrated us all in years past. And why I think this year we will be pleased with the potential massive growth in the stats.

Free throw shooting.

Based on the 9 players I mentioned who I think will be getting significant playing minutes, I want to compile the stats of free throw shooting and show what the potential % this season could be, and this will excite you.
 

Hardnett - (last season free throws)         41-61       .672
Mballa - (last season free throws)            91-134      .679
Williams - (last 2 seasons free throws)    97-137      .708
Jack - (career free throws)                      117-136     .860
Segu - (career free throws)                    107-129      .829   

Brewton - (career free throws)                   56-77      .727
Perry -(career free throws)                         65-81      .802
Jones - (last season free throws)              59-68      .868
Skogman - (career free throws)                     4-6      .667

TOTALS:                                                            637-829    .768   

UB finished last year with a free throw % of .668%, which was 294th in the country. A stat that was one of the biggest issues on the team. If they were to finish the season last year with .768%, it would have been good for 29th in the nation. We should no doubt see a huge turnaround.                      



 

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7 minutes ago, mikescherrer8 said:

Also, I would like to observe a stat that I think has frustrated us all in years past. And why I think this year we will be pleased with the potential massive growth in the stats.

Free throw shooting.

Based on the 9 players I mentioned who I think will be getting significant playing minutes, I want to compile the stats of free throw shooting and show what the potential % this season could be, and this will excite you.
 

Hardnett - (last season free throws)         41-61       .672
Mballa - (last season free throws)            91-134      .679
Williams - (last 2 seasons free throws)    97-137      .708
Jack - (career free throws)                      117-136     .860
Segu - (career free throws)                    107-129      .829   

Brewton - (career free throws)                   56-77      .727
Perry -(career free throws)                         65-81      .802
Jones - (last season free throws)              59-68      .868
Skogman - (career free throws)                     4-6      .667

TOTALS:                                                            637-829    .768   

UB finished last year with a free throw % of .668%, which was 294th in the country. A stat that was one of the biggest issues on the team. If they were to finish the season last year with .768%, it would have been good for 29th in the nation. We should no doubt see a huge turnaround.                      



 

I certainly will be happy to see FT% in mid 70s. An improvement of 0.10 points is just under 2 points a game.   The key to success this season will still be Adjusted Defensive Efficiency...if this comes in around 0.96/0.97...they will be tough to contend with...especially with an improvement in FT%.

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5 hours ago, mikescherrer8 said:

I was looking through the roster and was trying to figure out who I think would be playing the most this season. I think the following lineup makes the most sense as of right now. But, it's still a little early. And I was bored. Also adding some analysis on each player and what we should be expecting this season. And if you don't wanna read it all, I understand.


STARTERS                                                                                                  ESTIMATED MINUTES
F. Laquill Hardnett              JR.     6'8"  200                            22  
F. Josh Mballa                    SR.     6'7"   225                            32
F/W. Jeenathan Williams    SR.    6'5"  205                             32
G. Maceo Jack                    SR.    6'5"  190                             22
G. Rondo Segu                   SR.     6'0"  160                             32
____________________________________________________
KEY BENCH PLAYERS
G. Keishawn Brewton        SR.      6'2"   180                           22   
G. Ty Perry                         JR.      6'3"   215                            14
G. Curtis Jones                  SO.     6'5"   180                            12
C. David Skogman             SO.     6'10"  225                           12
____________________________________________________
RESERVES
C. Brock Bertram               GRAD  6'11"  240
F. Tra'von Fagan                GRAD  6'8"   210
____________________________________________________
INCOMING FRESHMAN
F. Zaakir Williamson           6'7"   240
G. Kidtrell Blocker              6'5"   190
F. Kuluel Mading                 6'9"  190



Laquill Hardnett - He's going to be a guy who is going to be crucial inside. A bit of a nuisance in the paint. Making easy buckets, getting tough rebounds. Last year he was really starting to find his groove as primarily a 4 player who from time to time takes a jump shot and even a 3. Overall, he needs to embrace life inside the paint. That's where he's most important. I would love to see him improve dramatically on the defensive side and to be confident getting to the rim. Much like last year, he will most likely get 20+ minutes a game and be needed for size.

Josh Mballa - One of the best and most consistent rebounders in UB history. A total ball hawk who has great awareness for ball placement when a shot is missed. Much like Hardnett, he is going to making a living this year inside the paint. As he should. But he's a guy who isn't afraid to take a chance at a mid range jumper or a close range jumper. I think he should refrain from taking 3's often because we don't really need that from him. He's a true 4 who plays like a 5. Expect him to be averaging double doubles on double doubles. This is his team for the leading alongside Williams and Segu. This will be his last year at UB, so, let's see him really shine.

Jeenathan Williams - Well, we all know how far Jeenathan has come. He is this best player on the team and one of the most talented players in the MAC, and most talented in all of mid-majors as far as I am concerned. He will most likely lead the team in points, just like last season. For a guy who has shooting guard size, he sure does play a lot bigger than he is. Expect his stat line to be near 20PPG 7 RPG 3APG. If he remains consistent, stays healthy, and the team is clicking, I have no doubt in my mind he is going to be the MAC player of the year. Much like Mballa and Segu, this is his team for the leading. He needs to be a leader and I have no doubt that the team will look at him as one. 

Maceo Jack - The debut of Mr. Jack himself. This is really going to be a very interesting year for Maceo Jack. He is entering a team where he is in the shadow of a 3 headed monster known as Mballa, Williams, and Segu. When he was at George Washington, he was heavily involved in their game plan. He was asked to do a lot more than I think he was capable of giving them. Constantly shoot the ball. Fast forward to the 2021-2022 season, I don't think he's going to be asked to do as much as he was at GW. I think this puts him in a position where he can play a bit more stress free and you might see a massive statistical improvement in his shooting. He is a good shooter, but was very inconsistent. Hot and cold. He is an amazing free throw shooter at a whopping 86%, and expect him to provide rebounding numbers. He is going to be getting a fair amount of minutes with his game experience, and I expect him to play well this season because he will be in a offense where he is not the most needed shooter.

Ronaldo Segu - As I've said, this is his team for the leading alongside Williams and Mballa. Quite possibly the most emotional player on this team. The most emotional since maybe Shannon Evans. A player that we have needed for quite some time who will show some emotion on the court and isn't afraid to speak his mind toward his teammates. Segu last season had really improved on his offensive game. With a stat line of 13-3-4, I expect Segu to repeat the same type of season, if not improve those numbers as well. The one thing I wish to see from Segu is become a better defender. I thought at times last year he really let people down with getting blown up on the defensive side of the ball. This is probably his last season with UB, and I hope that he helps lead us to a run toward the NCAA tournament. 

Keishawn Brewton - Now, I know there are people on the forum who maybe don't think Brewton is that good. Or think that he shouldn't be getting as many minutes as I think he will.  And he hasn't given you a reason to think so. His playstyle was pretty much just be a shooter. That's what was asked of him. But I think his role is going to change and that he will not only be a shooter, but to also become more of a playmaker. He's not going to be asked to just fire 3 pointers or mid range shots constantly, I think he is going to contribute to ball movement and to help set up better % shooting. He's destined to come in for Segu and to provide much needed guard depth at the 1. Don't give up on Brewton yet, because I think he can provide the team with very meaningful minutes. This is his last season with UB, expect him to play like it.

Ty Perry - A very interesting addition in the offseason. An addition that may not excite, but an addition that was needed. Especially at the 2 guard spot. A role playing guard who is probably going to be asked to shoot when he has good looks, play great defense, oh, and it doesn't hurt that his career free throw shooting is .802%. There's not a whole lot of expectation with Perry, but he's going to get minutes, he has game experience, he's a good shooter, and based on game film, not a bad defender. Expect some good things with him.

Curtis Jones - Some may ask, why do I think Curtis Jones here. Well, because he should be. He's coming off a great year with Indian Hills CC, his stat line there was 12.1 PPG, 6 RPG, 5.5 APG, and a whopping 87% free throw % (59/68). I don't know how that all will translate into D1 basketball. If that skillset pours over into practices and he shines, he will be getting minutes, and he might take away minutes from Jack and Perry. It's early but the potential for Jones is exciting and he has an opportunity to make a splash and impress the coaching staff, they are looking guard depth and he is going to be fighting for minutes. 

David Skogman - Skogman is entering his third year with the team, a redshirt sophomore. Since I would say Mitchell Watt, have we been looking for a big center type player who can provide meaningful minutes. This is the year that Skogman needs to show some life. He is an athletic, intelligent guy with a fair amount to prove. I don't think he is going to be asked to do a whole lot, but I sure as heck would like to see him out there playing meaningful minutes, play some good defense, getting down and dirty inside the paint to get baskets and rebounds. He's a guy who also has a jump shot and can shoot the 3 ball. I would like to see a little of all of that this year. I don't think he overtakes time away from Laquill Hardnett, but, you never know. If Hardnett plays poorly, Skogman has a chance to take over. His situation is a little exciting because now is his time to step up and provide the team with good playing time.

Brock Bertram - Grad student, a locker room guy who is great for morale and leadership. At this point in his career, I don't think Bertram should be getting any minutes, barring serious foul trouble or injury issues. I don't think it's wise to take minutes away from players who probably need it more. I'm glad he's on the team for morale, and that's about all. 

Tra'Von Fagan - Much like Bertram, same story here with Fagan. I think the ship has sailed with him getting any minutes. He is great for morale and leadership in the locker room, but that's it. If serious foul trouble looms, or injuries become an issue, maybe they get him on the floor. I would almost prefer Zaakir Williamson over Fagan, however.

Zaakir Williamson - I see a lot of Javon McCrea in this guy. Both are the same size, both play a similar style. At 6'7" and weighing around 240, this is the one guy I think might get any playing time out of the upcoming freshman, maybe Blocker gets some time. I don't know about red shirt statuses yet, but I'm just going off of what I saw from him playing in high school. He's a physical, big forward with tons of potential. Really good footwork on the inside where he can do damage in the same fashion as Josh Mballa does. He even has a decent jump shot which is pleasantly surprising. I don't know how they are going to fit him into the rotation here. I think if Hardnett and Skogman play poorly, injuries and foul trouble become present, then I think he might get minutes. This is all based off observations and I think his style translates well to D1 mid-major basketball and I think he might be the one recruit in this class who gets some play time. We will see as practices go on and we will see what happens with him. If he stands out in practice, and shows the coaching staff a lot of good things, I'm not sure he redshirts.

Kidtrell Blocker - Blocker is a very talented player. I would describe him as a bit of a slasher. He likes to take the ball to the rim and finish there. A hell of a dunker, has a nice shooting stroke with a nice jumper. He is an electric player in transition also who plays fast. This is a player who fits the style of the offense. His speed almost reminds me of Davonta Jordan with a mix of Jayvon Graves. His disrupts passing lanes often while on defense and does a really great job of getting in the face of his man. I don't know what happens because I think Curtis Jones might have the upper hand here. Maybe he flashes in practice and impresses and Jones does not, so they split minutes between the two. Maybe Jones and Perry both don't look great and Blocker rises up. And maybe foul trouble and injury happens and that's where Blocker really gets a lot of minutes. It's all too early yet and I don't know what's going to happen. But Buffalo really made out with a freakishly athletic guard in Blocker. Does he red shirt? Does he shine in practice and climbs up the roster and gets minutes? Who knows, it is still early.


Kuluel Mading - A very undersized forward with a lot of potential. I see him red shirting. I think he's a guy who really needs to put time into the weight room. Give him the Nick Perkins regimen. And I think next year he may provide good minutes at forward when roster room opens up a little more. He's a good inside guy who has a jump shot and can hit the 3 pointer. But I think his style and size doesn't translate well immediately. He looks like a deer trying to find its legs. I can see him being over powered if he were to instantly play. It's early, but, who knows what is going to happen. 

Great write up, love the optimism. One guy I want to stick up for though is Fagan, I thought he was excellent in his limited minutes last season. He has quick hands, always seemed to be coming up with a steal, and his 3 pointers were probably the most consistent on the team

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16 hours ago, mikescherrer8 said:


Kuluel Mading - A very undersized forward with a lot of potential. I see him red shirting. I think he's a guy who really needs to put time into the weight room. Give him the Nick Perkins regimen. And I think next year he may provide good minutes at forward when roster room opens up a little more. He's a good inside guy who has a jump shot and can hit the 3 pointer. But I think his style and size doesn't translate well immediately. He looks like a deer trying to find its legs. I can see him being over powered if he were to instantly play. It's early, but, who knows what is going to happen. 

I think Mading gets some playing time this year as a stretch 4, he’s incredibly quick for his size and has good ball handling skills. I wouldn’t put him at the 5 or 4 right away but possibly as a backup SF, he’d be quite the mismatch due to his height and wingspan. He gives me Hakim Warrick vibes, kids an incredible shot blocker and is a vicious dunker. I’d really like to see what he could do for this team this season 

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I tend to think concerns about free throw shooting in this forum are overblown.  I'd say rarely is it a top 5 cause of losing a game.  This is obviously an inexact science as you can argue that making more free throws leads to a butterfly effect of changes to in-game strategy at the end of a game, and teams don't really ever shoot their exact average, but to illustrate:

image.thumb.png.40002e82ad0ddbfeaebd9f11c72a79a5.png

Just changing the FT% from last year's bad FT shooting team to an average FT shooting team flips the result of one game.  Using next year's projected number from above also flips the result of one game, and becoming the best FT shooting team in the country from last year (Oral Roberts), flips the result of two games.

Obviously improving FT shooting in combination with other factors can flip more results and that's the hope for next year. I just feel that it's a number that's latched onto disproportionately (particularly in post game threads) relative to its impact on outcomes

 

Edit: I'll also add that getting to the FT line is probably just as important as making the shots when you're there and Graves/Nickelberry did so at a higher rate than Jack/Perry.  They're different types of players so that's fine, but it should be considered in the context.  Even with Graves' struggles at the line he averaged 1.15 pts per 2 shot trip.  While the team averaged 1.02 pts/FGA, and 1.07 pts/possesion so a Graves trip to the line was a relatively efficient outcome for a UB possession.

Edited by trueblue32
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2 hours ago, trueblue32 said:

I tend to think concerns about free throw shooting in this forum are overblown.  I'd say rarely is it a top 5 cause of losing a game.  This is obviously an inexact science as you can argue that making more free throws leads to a butterfly effect of changes to in-game strategy at the end of a game, and teams don't really ever shoot their exact average, but to illustrate:

image.thumb.png.40002e82ad0ddbfeaebd9f11c72a79a5.png

Just changing the FT% from last year's bad FT shooting team to an average FT shooting team flips the result of one game.  Using next year's projected number from above also flips the result of one game, and becoming the best FT shooting team in the country from last year (Oral Roberts), flips the result of two games.

Obviously improving FT shooting in combination with other factors can flip more results and that's the hope for next year. I just feel that it's a number that's latched onto disproportionately (particularly in post game threads) relative to its impact on outcomes

 

Edit: I'll also add that getting to the FT line is probably just as important as making the shots when you're there and Graves/Nickelberry did so at a higher rate than Jack/Perry.  They're different types of players so that's fine, but it should be considered in the context.  Even with Graves' struggles at the line he averaged 1.15 pts per 2 shot trip.  While the team averaged 1.02 pts/FGA, and 1.07 pts/possesion so a Graves trip to the line was a relatively efficient outcome for a UB possession.

Thank you for the analysis, and your perspective.  I did some very rough charts limited to just the Whitesell era as to what stat is more predictive of win.  The chart for FT% aligns with your analysis.  Opponent eFG% and TRB margin - when they go in our favor are good indications we will win.  Turnovers and FT% (similar to your assertion) did not show as big of a differential.  However, we win more often when we shoot FTs better, so I will take better FT% this year.  

image.png.6cfc4883569fae705765e397daf05ccd.png

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On 8/23/2021 at 11:07 AM, Tee4three said:

Regarding red shirting the incoming freshman, I don't know if ub can afford to. Even though they might not a ton of minutes I think ub will need the offense off the bench. 

Personally ... with the 'extra' years several players have taken advantage of - I think this is the perfect season to redshirt one or two guys. Would love to see it from several teams around the league. Nothing worse than talent sitting, anticipating, but getting no run. That's why, in the past,  you would often see a lot of the powerhouse teams with just 10 guys. 

 

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  • 1 month later...

Reading Blue Ribbon Yearbook's Buffalo summary and here's some quotes that jumped out to me from Whitesell that give an idea of what some of the guys roles will be this year:

On David Skogman

“I think Skogman has great potential. This summer, he really made a jump. He’s much more confident. He can shoot the 3. He's got an opportunity to play heavy minutes with a chance to start.”

On Kuluel Mading:

"He's thin, but he's got a great upside. He can really run. He's more of a tall three than anything.”

On Kidtrell Blocker:

"He's got a lot of talent, he's got good potential, but he's a little bit behind because he missed a month of the summer”

On Zaakir Williamson

"He's a five/four, wide-body kid. We've got a lot of good depth inside, so it's a luxury for him to be able to take our time and develop him. He can get extra reps in practice -kind of what we did with David Skogman a couple years back.”

 

He also mentions Brewton providing a spark off the bench, so presumably Jack will be starting with Skogman as an option for a bigger starting lineup. 

Edited by trueblue32
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  • 2 weeks later...
7 minutes ago, Gxtrex said:

60 is very good. I think they're far off on us lacking depth though. Granted much of it depends on highly touted but unproven freshman, but this feels like our deepest team in years.

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