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Miami University (-1) @ UB


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Some lines had UB as a 1 point favorite opening, others with Miami as favorite.

As of Monday afternoon, Miami is a 1 point favorite.  It has gotten as high as 1.5.   I wouldn't expect this line to drift either way more than a point or two.

 

The Red Hawks are 2 wins in 4 games this season.   The played Kentucky tough to open the season (the Wildcats kicked a FG as time expired in the first half to take the lead...then returned the second half kickoff for a TD).  And what did Miami do on the drive right after that?  Fumbled on the second play from scrimmage...and UK scored again.  That's 17 points in about a minute of game time.  From 10 - 10 to 10 - 27 in a hurry...and that was really that.

They slept through a game hosting Robert Morris, turning the ball over 3 times, but won 31 - 14.

They "hosted" Cincy next, which means they bussed a bunch of students down to the stadium where the Bengals play.  Miami was up 17 - 7 in the second quarter before Cincy got the wake up call on defense (and scored the next 31 points).   Miami was 1 - 13 on 3rd and 4th down...and only completed 9 passes (ten, if you count the interception).

This past Saturday the Red Hawks travelled to Evanston to take on Northwestern.  NU beat the Huskers in Ireland to open the season, which was a lot more about Nebraska (and Frost's decision making) than NU.   They Northwestern proceeded to lose to Duke and S. Illinois.    The Miami vs Northwestern game was a defensive struggle.  Miami got on the board following a punt block towards the end of the first half to make it a 7 - 7 tie.  A lot of punts in the second half, but eventually Northwestern won the field position game and scored a TD.  Miami answered right back with a long TD run.  Miami drove at the end of the game to kick a field goal and win.  The teams combined for 14 punts (including the block).

What about this week?  It seems clear that Miami has a pretty good defense.  They will struggle on offensive a bit w/o Gabbert.  Aveon Smith, their backup, is a work in progress.   They were very committed to the run vs Northwestern (they ran in 44 times) and outside of the long run for the TD by Mozee, didn't get a lot going.  I would expect more of the same vs. UB.

Buffalo's offense got rolling last week and now comes home.  Miami is coming off a big win.  There are two questions:  (1)  How well can UB stop the Miami run and (2) can UB move the ball effectively vs. the stout Miami defense.

 

UB is going to have to limit big plays from Miami (e.g., kick off return for a TD) and win the turnover battle.  If they do, I like their chances this week.  

Go Bulls.

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Nice write up.  Looks like UB is +1.5 as of today.  

I assume Miami will still be playing their backup QB..  And just like last week, I'll always pick against any MAC team who is coming off a P5 victory (Miami over Northwestern). Always bank on the letdown.   UB is finding a groove with Cole Snyder and some nice pieces on O.  The D will definitely give up their share of yardage but without Gabbert it seems like Miami will have tougher sledding in the Red Zone.

Also, Mo's team got killed by Miami last season.  I'm sure he doesn't forget.   I'd take the Bulls +1.5

 

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The interesting thing, the ESPN Matchup Predictor has UB 64.4% to Miami 35.6%. If we execute our O like last week and our D plays like the 2nd half, I like our changes. Plus we have the secret weapon of Alex McNulty, 2 time, back-to-back, MAC Special Teams Player of the Week!

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8 hours ago, UBinMD said:

The interesting thing, the ESPN Matchup Predictor has UB 64.4% to Miami 35.6%. If we execute our O like last week and our D plays like the 2nd half, I like our changes. Plus we have the secret weapon of Alex McNulty, 2 time, back-to-back, MAC Special Teams Player of the Week!

I was at UofMD when McNulty missed his first kick. It was so off-target that it might not even gone out the back of the end zone. But he's laser focused now, ain't he.

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7 hours ago, promotherobot said:

I was at UofMD when McNulty missed his first kick. It was so off-target that it might not even gone out the back of the end zone. But he's laser focused now, ain't he.

Yeah, that kick was dreadful. He’s definitely on target now. I was looking at ESPN this morning and now UB is a 1.5 favorite. I guess betting switched things up a bit overnight.

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9 hours ago, BrooklynBull said:

Game is now on ESPNU.

Thats a good sign. I honestly think TV really wants to like UB. We get a lot of opportunities to play on nation TV in football and basketball. Hopefully we can capitalize on this someday. Buffalo is a huge market, compared to any other MAC school, so they see it as a positive. The Bills doing well is also a bonus.

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3 hours ago, UBinMD said:

Thats a good sign. I honestly think TV really wants to like UB. We get a lot of opportunities to play on nation TV in football and basketball. Hopefully we can capitalize on this someday. Buffalo is a huge market, compared to any other MAC school, so they see it as a positive. The Bills doing well is also a bonus.

I think that UB, to be honest, is the best of a bunch of bad choices owing the games available at that time.  Others on this board in that arena (i.e., TV broadcasting) might be able to speak more precisely and specifically on that, however.

Here are TV ratings for college football games, week-to-week.   I don't think they include CBSSN, however, unless it was below their threshold for measurement!

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/

You can even look at historic ratings at the bottom of the page...

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2 minutes ago, Erie County said:

Snyder has been very bad today. Needed to keep that last few. His hesitancy on the read option/wrong reads have hurt the team.

2-11 on 3rd down today.

This team is actually worse at home than on the road, i was wrong about that. 

 

Agree, but overall for the MAC, if Miami (OH) is the best of the East, this conference is beyond sad. I realize they lost their QB1, but they are not good.

EMU barely beat UMass at 20-13, so I'm not sure that's a guaranteed win for us either.

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1 minute ago, skrabukes said:

Gutsy taking the points off the board, and then getting rewarded with the TD. 2-0 in MAC is big after the start to the non-conference season.

The play calls following the false start by Miami, to me they should have just kept the pts. Very conservative either a draw then 2 throws that are thrown as 50/50 but very safe from being intercepted 

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I will take the win but ugly. For the love of UB Bulls stop that crazy prevent defense. It prevents you from winning. UB Bulls almost did the same thing as Holy Cross crazy. UB won at the end because the Miami back up QB is a wild cat QB with no arm or UB would have lost. Please fire our defensive coordinator he is horrible he can’t stop the run it was embarrassing the rushing yardage UB gave up with poor tackling. UB Bulls won even though I felt like we lost what is with this team. Defensively and offensively we are a very flawed team. But the UB Bulls are on bowl path that is all I care about UMass is a must non conference game to win that gets Buffalo to 3 at 3-3 .500. Then UB Bulls need 3 out of 6 even though 4 out of 6 would be better to get to 7-5 in my opinion. UB Horns Up! Go Bulls! Let’s Go Buffalo 

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We sort of snatched victory there.  I will take it.  
 

I know UB isn’t a great team this year, but I have no other team, so a win is a win, whatever way it looks. 
 

Snyder is a work in progress.  The offensive line is going to be a struggle.   But they have some difference makers on offense.  
 

great hit at the end of the game to stop them in 4th down!

 

I also liked how our RB knocked two players out of the game on the same play.  That’s tough running.  
 

Go Bulls!

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Awfully negative here after a big win...clearly Miami are compromised without their top qb but still a great win. I'm not worried about "winning ugly" in the 2nd season of a coaches' tenure. What I am worried about is learning how to win and building momentum.

The MAC seems truly wide open this season...no great teams but also no clear bottom feeders as has been the case in many recent seasons. After a 2-0 start, a 5-3 MAC finish would be solid. 

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1 hour ago, UBinMD said:

Agree, but overall for the MAC, if Miami (OH) is the best of the East, this conference is beyond sad. I realize they lost their QB1, but they are not good.

EMU barely beat UMass at 20-13, so I'm not sure that's a guaranteed win for us either.

Yes the MAC is a weak conference.  Heading into to today, the composite rankings had Miami (OH),  CMU and Toledo as top 3, with rankings upper 80s. / low 90s.  Toledo will move up a bit after today, but there is a lot of parity, so opportunity for whoever wants it most.  Given the 0-3 start I will take 2-0 start to the MAC.

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