Talkin' Big 4 Hoops Episode 11: Does UB Have A Chance At Making A Run In Cleveland?

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

 So, that was a tough week for UB... It wasn't unexpected but never good to get blown out in back-to-back conference games in mid-February. The Bulls are struggling and they don't exactly have freebies remaining on their schedule. Buffalo already lost to three of their four remaining opponents. Siting at 12-15 overall, it looks like they could have their first losing season since Reggie Witherspoon's final year with the program in 2012-13 when they went 14-20.

John and I addressed the current state of the Big 4 and if UB is capable of making a run in Cleveland. Fast-forward to the 17:30 mark for UB talk.

 

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by Big 4 Hoops Blogger
Episode 11

[UBinMD]

42 minutes ago, Big 4 Hoops Blogger said:

I'm back podcasting about UB basketball. My friend John Snyder has a ton of connections to all of the local schools, having covered UB, Canisius and Niagara in the past in addition to coaching lower level college hoops. Fast forward to the 23:00 mark for some Bulls talk.

We're just getting this started so there will be a little bit of a learning curve but looking forward to going live every Monday evening at 6:30 on YouTube and Twitter. Hope you check it out!

Thanks for sharing.

[DocCas86]

1 hour ago, Big 4 Hoops Blogger said:

I'm back podcasting about UB basketball. My friend John Snyder has a ton of connections to all of the local schools, having covered UB, Canisius and Niagara in the past in addition to coaching lower level college hoops. Fast forward to the 23:00 mark for some Bulls talk.

We're just getting this started so there will be a little bit of a learning curve but looking forward to going live every Monday evening at 6:30 on YouTube and Twitter. Hope you check it out!

Overall a very fair assessment of UB.  I was thinking 10-11 wins in MAC and in 5-6 seed range, but the JMU game certainly has me wavering.  Hope they show more tomorrow night.   

It was interesting to see the difference of opinion regarding the schedule.  Originally I was in the camp of loving the tough schedule, but I agree there is a danger that it beats the team down.  Losing Chatman doesn't help matters either.  Hoping these guys show more of Colgate level than JMU level from this point forward. 

[121Merrimac]

17 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

…Hope they show more tomorrow night. …

I hope they can be seen tomorrow…. There doesn’t seem to be a listed broadcast yet. 

[BrooklynBull]

Just now, 121Merrimac said:

I hope they can be seen tomorrow…. There doesn’t seem to be a listed broadcast yet. 

CBS Sports Network.

[UB Horns Up]

You can never go wrong with a tough schedule. If this team losses all the tough games good it make them stronger. The worse thing you can do is play cupcake schedule. You don’t get to be big time anything playing cupcakes. Again if UB loses for 10 years playing up it is worth it because eventually you recruit for that level schedule. The Bonnies always has the advantage on the other three Big 4 schedules because they recruit for the tougher A-10. But BSF your Griffs beat the Bonnies. I know but that is the exception not the rule. Plus the Griffs are use to playing the Bonnies for 170th meeting. That game is very different because of the history there. Both schools and Niagara that is very different UB. UB if they didn’t play the Little Three basketball tomorrow few in those basketball fan bases would notice or care. UB Bulls are just there hanging out. If it was my call UB would play most of there non conference on the road since few seem to go to UB non conference games to be worth playing at home. The James Madison attendance was atrocious how low 1,949 is terrible for a Saturday afternoon UB students just don’t care in enough numbers to play a lot of non conference games at home in my opinion. UB Horns Up! Go Bulls! Let’s Go Buffalo 

Edited November 15, 2022 by UB Horns Up

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

Going live with our latest episode at 6:45. I’ll post the link below and the replay of it afterwards. Lots to discuss today regarding UB.

Big 4 Talk Episode 3

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by Big 4 Hoops Blogger

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

I'm going to update the link to our show every week here so I don't need to start new threads. Fast forward to the 15:00 mark for some UB talk. We discuss their challenging upcoming slate of games and breakdown their recent victory over Canisius.

We started the show this week discussing St. Bonaventure's win over Notre Dame if you want insight on the Bonnies and spent some time near the end breaking down Nate Oats recent success at Alabama.

 

[DocCas86]

Thank you for sharing your thoughts.  Here are some points to consider. 

First, I am not sure I understood / agreed with you point about the remaining schedule.  I think when you look at the schedule as a whole, UB will have played six teams that are currently ranked between 68 and 130 per Kenpom.  This is arguably the range of the top 3 MAC teams.  So this schedule gives you six glimpses into how the team stacks up against the MAC top teams (matchup differences aside).  The games against Bona and Tulane will definitely inform you about this team.  The two quad 1 games remaining can tell you how tough / determined this team is.  The two D3 games are likely just to keep the team motivated as they go through a very tough stretch and help the optics of the OOC record.

At this point, I agree that the Bulls still have to prove whether they can consistently compete with top teams in the MAC.  However, after a 20 point win - the best you can muster in terms of good things to say is the better team won?  Jones is emerging as a leader of this team with his third straight 22 point effort, shooting 14 for 21 (67%) from 2pt range and 11 for 28 (39%) from 3pt range during that time.  The rest of the scoring has been spread amongst 4 or 5 players - so there is generally good balance.  Perhaps it would be good to see someone emerge as a consistent #2 offensive threat, but personally I think the balance is welcome.  The team has been good at forcing turnovers, defending the 3pt shot and showed improvement in a weak area - offensive rebounding.   There are areas to improve still, and  you do a good job highlighting them - defensive rebounding / turnovers / etc.

 

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

1 hour ago, DocCas86 said:

Thank you for sharing your thoughts.  Here are some points to consider. 

First, I am not sure I understood / agreed with you point about the remaining schedule.  I think when you look at the schedule as a whole, UB will have played six teams that are currently ranked between 68 and 130 per Kenpom.  This is arguably the range of the top 3 MAC teams.  So this schedule gives you six glimpses into how the team stacks up against the MAC top teams (matchup differences aside).  The games against Bona and Tulane will definitely inform you about this team.  The two quad 1 games remaining can tell you how tough / determined this team is.  The two D3 games are likely just to keep the team motivated as they go through a very tough stretch and help the optics of the OOC record.

At this point, I agree that the Bulls still have to prove whether they can consistently compete with top teams in the MAC.  However, after a 20 point win - the best you can muster in terms of good things to say is the better team won?  Jones is emerging as a leader of this team with his third straight 22 point effort, shooting 14 for 21 (67%) from 2pt range and 11 for 28 (39%) from 3pt range during that time.  The rest of the scoring has been spread amongst 4 or 5 players - so there is generally good balance.  Perhaps it would be good to see someone emerge as a consistent #2 offensive threat, but personally I think the balance is welcome.  The team has been good at forcing turnovers, defending the 3pt shot and showed improvement in a weak area - offensive rebounding.   There are areas to improve still, and  you do a good job highlighting them - defensive rebounding / turnovers / etc.

 

Appreciate your response and input.

My point about the schedule is that it’s one that could potentially really beat up this Bulls squad.

As mentioned earlier, there’s multiple different philosophies on how to create non-conference schedules. I’ll never say I’m right or wrong because it’s all about individual point of views. This is a schedule I’d be more in favor of if UB was expected to be a MAC contender. With a rebuilding squad, I would’ve liked something more along the lines of what St. Bonaventure put together to build some confidence.

KenPom has UB as underdogs in their next four D1 games and heavy underdogs against WVU and MSU.

Realistically, Buffalo could be 5-8 after 13 games if they don’t find a way to split Bona/Tulane which are both hovering around Top 100.

There are aspects of this UB team that I’m encouraged about but it’s difficult to take too much away from a dominating win over Canisius, although there is something to be said about taking care of business which the Bonnies failed to do against the Griffs.

Curtis Jones has been incredible and I think Zid Powell is fitting in nicely. Jones has a scoring touch that I didn’t see happening this quickly in his career. I like the Bulls defensive intensity but there hasn’t been many other high level performers. Hardnett has taken a step forward to where I think many of us expected him to be a few years ago. As far as Adams and Foster, they’re scoring but I’m hoping they’re able to step up their level of play because I was expecting a little bit more out of both of them. UB has been playing with a fast tempo which is nice but they also have to cut down on their turnovers. I think the MAC preseason prediction of 6th place will be pretty close to accurate with this squad.

 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Big 4 Hoops Blogger

[DocCas86]

1 hour ago, Big 4 Hoops Blogger said:

Appreciate your response and input.

My point about the schedule is that it’s one that could potentially really beat up this Bulls squad.

As mentioned earlier, there’s multiple different philosophies on how to create non-conference schedules. I’ll never say I’m right or wrong because it’s all about individual point of views. This is a schedule I’d be more in favor of if UB was expected to be a MAC contender. With a rebuilding squad, I would’ve liked something more along the lines of what St. Bonaventure put together to build some confidence.

KenPom has UB as underdogs in their next four D1 games and heavy underdogs against WVU and MSU.

Realistically, Buffalo could be 5-8 after 13 games if they don’t find a way to split Bona/Tulane which are both hovering around Top 100.

There are aspects of this UB team that I’m encouraged about but it’s difficult to take too much away from a dominating win over Canisius, although there is something to be said about taking care of business which the Bonnies failed to do against the Griffs.

Curtis Jones has been incredible and I think Zid Powell is fitting in nicely. Jones has a scoring touch that I didn’t see happening this quickly in his career. I like the Bulls defensive intensity but there hasn’t been many other high level performers. Hardnett has taken a step forward to where I think many of us expected him to be a few years ago. As far as Adams and Foster, they’re scoring but I’m hoping they’re able to step up their level of play because I was expecting a little bit more out of both of them. UB has been playing with a fast tempo which is nice but they also have to cut down on their turnovers. I think the MAC preseason prediction of 6th place will be pretty close to accurate with this squad.

 

Thank you for your perspective on schedule.  I agree no right or wrong, we are both sharing perspectives. 

I fully expect UB to lose against WVU and MSU.  To date with the exception of the JMU game, UB has shown it can compete with teams the caliber of Tulane and St. Bonaventure, so I am optimistic that UB will keep these games close.  It is true that UB may go 0-4 in the remaining D1 games, but I am optimistic that if there are two losses against Bona and Tulane, that the games are close.  If close games you can take perspective we were 2-4 in games against teams that would be 1,2, or 3 in MAC, but we had out chances in 3 of the losses.  Therefore, we can compete with top of the MAC.  Only if we get blown out by Tulane and Bona (possible yes)  would I be deflated as a player.  Alternatively you could have Ohio's schedule - they will have two games the level of top MAC (Marshall / Belmont) by end of the month.  They could go 4-0 against Youngstown St, Delaware, Stetson, and Chicago St and gain some confidence.  However, if they lose to Marshall and Florida They have lost to every top team they faced, although they were competitive in the game against Michigan, but they won't have as many experiences facing the likes of Kent, Toledo and Akron with the current team.

[Bluebird96]

On 11/29/2022 at 12:11 PM, DocCas86 said:

I fully expect UB to lose against WVU and MSU.  To date with the exception of the JMU game, UB has shown it can compete with teams the caliber of Tulane and St. Bonaventure, so I am optimistic that UB will keep these games close.

Bonnie’s beat ND by double digits, now tonight ND is leading MSU by 18 with 10:00 to go. Just goes to show how hard it is to predict these CBB games night in and night out. This gives me hope that if we can compete with Bona, maybe we can also compete with MSU if we bring our ‘A’ game. I have to believe the games against P5 opponents will help us when it comes time for MAC play. But as others have said, I think UB could do better than scheduling 2 games with D3 teams.

[DocCas86]

7 hours ago, Bluebird96 said:

Bonnie’s beat ND by double digits, now tonight ND is leading MSU by 18 with 10:00 to go. Just goes to show how hard it is to predict these CBB games night in and night out. This gives me hope that if we can compete with Bona, maybe we can also compete with MSU if we bring our ‘A’ game. I have to believe the games against P5 opponents will help us when it comes time for MAC play. But as others have said, I think UB could do better than scheduling 2 games with D3 teams.

So true about predicting CBB.   We know that the fact that UB beat Canisius and Canisius beat St. Bonaventure means little, this will be a very tough game on Saturday.  Hoping UB is up for the challenge.  

As for the D3 games, maybe they give the team a chance to relax amid an otherwise tough Dec stretch of games.  I am inclined to give them a pass in scheduling these two games given the overall quality of the other 11, but I am certainly understand your point.

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

Great win for Buffalo over the weekend against St. Bonaventure. The Bulls dominated from the very beginning. Curtis Jones and Zid Powell look to be a dangerous 1-2 punch. A big key for the Bulls was getting Chad Venning into foul trouble early. Yann Farrell will be good for the Bonnies but was their only real threat on Saturday.

UB is looking solid heading into the end of non-conference play. The victory over Bona changes my outlook a little bit. Buffalo now has three Top 130 KenPom victories just eight games into their season. They might have the ability to cause some problems in MAC play.

 

[DocCas86]

Thank you for the analysis.  Once again some good content.

A couple of points, first I am hopeful for the game against Tulane.  If UB pulls off a win, certainly UB is not the favorite, but they would be 4-2 against some good teams, and that bodes well for MAC play.

Preseason, I was thinking UB ranking would be 150 to 175 range.  I wonder which loss hurts them more, JMU or Howard.  At this stage I could see the team rank exceed my expectations to be around 125-150.  This would give them an outside chance in Cleveland.  A wildcard to me is does Chatman rejoin the team and how does he fit in.

Lastly, liked your discussion of the portal. It would be interesting to get candid insights from coaches and players, but not much chance of that.  I wonder if last year was the norm going forward for UB, or if Whitesell will be able to keep guys.  I don't know how much you can play the grass isn't always greener, but there are examples of that.  Definitely a new challenge faced by mid majors, and UB certainly has their share.  I guess as you said, winning probably increases the likelihood of players staying put.  So I will keep rooting for the w's. 🙂

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

1 hour ago, DocCas86 said:

Thank you for the analysis.  Once again some good content.

A couple of points, first I am hopeful for the game against Tulane.  If UB pulls off a win, certainly UB is not the favorite, but they would be 4-2 against some good teams, and that bodes well for MAC play.

Preseason, I was thinking UB ranking would be 150 to 175 range.  I wonder which loss hurts them more, JMU or Howard.  At this stage I could see the team rank exceed my expectations to be around 125-150.  This would give them an outside chance in Cleveland.  A wildcard to me is does Chatman rejoin the team and how does he fit in.

Lastly, liked your discussion of the portal. It would be interesting to get candid insights from coaches and players, but not much chance of that.  I wonder if last year was the norm going forward for UB, or if Whitesell will be able to keep guys.  I don't know how much you can play the grass isn't always greener, but there are examples of that.  Definitely a new challenge faced by mid majors, and UB certainly has their share.  I guess as you said, winning probably increases the likelihood of players staying put.  So I will keep rooting for the w's. 🙂

Appreciate you tuning in! Tulane game is definitely winnable with them recently losing at home against Fordham. Won't be easy for UB though.

I think 125-150 is a fair expectation for this group based on their early results this season. UB is currently 165 in KenPom. The Howard game is their only ugly looking loss in the metrics while James Madison was their worst effort overall.

While it might be difficult to get coaches to speak on record, we do have a few connections that we can hopefully get some more insight from at some point during the season.

[Bluebird96]

6 minutes ago, Big 4 Hoops Blogger said:

I think 125-150 is a fair expectation for this group based on their early results this season. UB is currently 165 in KenPom. The Howard game is their only ugly looking loss in the metrics while James Madison was their worst effort overall.

To play the “What if?” game, if we could’ve held on to late leads and beat both Drake and Howard, we might already be in that 125-150 range at 6-2. To be able to hang with teams like Drake and with quality wins over Colgate, GMU and Bona, the bar is being raised for my expectations in MAC play. Need to keep building on the recent successes.

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

We discussed Buffalo's loss against Tulane starting at the 32:00 mark. We also talked about how it's a down year for the Big 4 and the importance of UB finding their identity.

 

[DocCas86]

In my mind, their identity has to go back to the intense tenacity (they need to get IT!) of Oats era teams.  This shows up mostly on the defensive end but does impact the offensive side too.  I think we have seen glimpses of this during this season, but it needs to be consistent game in and game out.  Recall that Whitesell did get to the MAC championship in year two on the strength of solid d and underperformed expectations due to regressing on d last year.

Edit: to add a corollary.

The team needs to know their SHIT.

Steals Happen : Intense Tenacity

(Opponents) Shots Hard: Intense Tenacity

Secure Handling: Intense Tenacity

(Own) Second Half: Intense Tenacity

Ok maybe I will be the only one who thinks this is clever...but you guys are free to ignore (but no mocking please 😳)

Edited December 14, 2022 by DocCas86

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

This week, we opened our show discussing the UB/WVU game. A lot of positives for the Bulls. Hope you check out the show!

 

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

We opened the show discussing Buffalo's past two losses and dove deeper into Jim Whitesell's future in the program. I've always been a firm believer in hiring young, up & coming assistant with solid recruiting ties to lead mid-major programs. Feel free to comment.

 

[John]

16 hours ago, Big 4 Hoops Blogger said:

We opened the show discussing Buffalo's past two losses and dove deeper into Jim Whitesell's future in the program. I've always been a firm believer in hiring young, up & coming assistant with solid recruiting ties to lead mid-major programs. Feel free to comment.

 

Thanks for the good commentary. Food for thought on all the Big 4 topics. Our family and many fans agree that Hodgson should of been hired and we think Whitesell would of been a good assistant helping Hodgson with the X’s and O’s. We needed someone who had a track record of recruiting and with some energy. We see that in Coach Burke with the women who have bought in and do now have an identity. Total disappointment with the men with no identity and no direction but we will know after this week with games for both teams coming up. Do agree the blame lies with Alnutt who has ruined all the momentum with the men’s program. Kudos with his hiring of Coach Burke who had the player pedigree and the early coach track record of success in her previous jobs. Hope for a successful week for both teams. Go Bulls!!

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

This week on the show, we discussed if we believe UB can contend in the MAC this year. John believes anything is on the table. We also got into UB's upcoming MAC slate which features the top teams in the conference.

Please fast-forward to the 45:00 mark. Appreciate any comments and opinions!

 

[Sportsfan]

1 hour ago, Big 4 Hoops Blogger said:

This week on the show, we discussed if we believe UB can contend in the MAC this year. John believes anything is on the table. We also got into UB's upcoming MAC slate which features the top teams in the conference.

Please fast-forward to the 45:00 mark. Appreciate any comments and opinions!

 

Great episode Mike, John!

Thoughts to consider.

1. Is UB talented, or just athletic?  The KenPom data would indicate athletic, but not skilled in basketball fundamentals.  John, do they do anything well from a "skills" coaching view.  They are poor shooters, bad defenders, poor passing, turnover machines, half court offense, etc.

2. Why are the bad on defense?  Coaching or Attitude?

3. Blue Collar?  They are not "gritty" at all.  Actually, from the games I have seen, the complete opposite of "Blue Collar".

4. Defense wins championships.  They have been bad on defense for 4 years.  Also, you cannot win championships without a half court offense that you can execute at the end of games (tight/close).

5. With today's portal and NLI, you have to win "today'.  There are no longer any "Development" programs.

6. Jim is not a good coach.  Nate went to Alabama and in the same time period has them at #2.  Jim has taken a Top 25 program an moved it down to 200.

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Sportsfan

[DocCas86]

11 hours ago, Sportsfan said:

Great episode Mike, John!

Thoughts to consider.

1. Is UB talented, or just athletic?  The KenPom data would indicate athletic, but not skilled in basketball fundamentals.  John, do they do anything well from a "skills" coaching view.  They are poor shooters, bad defenders, poor passing, turnover machines, half court offense, etc.

2. Why are the bad on defense?  Coaching or Attitude?

3. Blue Collar?  They are not "gritty" at all.  Actually, from the games I have seen, the complete opposite of "Blue Collar".

4. Defense wins championships.  They have been bad on defense for 4 years.  Also, you cannot win championships without a half court offense that you can execute at the end of games (tight/close).

5. With today's portal and NLI, you have to win "today'.  There are no longer any "Development" programs.

6. Jim is not a good coach.  Nate went to Alabama and in the same time period has them at #2.  Jim has taken a Top 25 program an moved it down to 200.

 

I see things a little differently on defensive end.  I see a team that plays hard, creates turnovers and has been taking charges.  They are not elite defensive teams like Akron and Kent, so there is room for improvement such as limiting opponent offensive rebounds, blocking more shots and sending opponent to free throw line less.   However, if you look back at the Oats years, only the 2018-19 year was significantly better than current team's 102.6.  On offensive side, some opportunities to improve, fewer turnovers, and free throw shooting are at the top of the list, but also, look to improve eFG% as well.