Big 4 Hoops Blogger

These are all things we've been discussing for a few years on this board and there's been plenty of posters who have downplayed the importance of NIL in the college basketball landscape.

The reason I said the things I said at the time was because I had multiple D1 coaching sources tell me NIL was going to make or break programs heading into the future. It's one of the top things prospective head coaches look into during job interviews.

14 hours ago, Chet said:

KenPom currently has UB MBB at 345, NET at 343. Absolutely horrendous. 

Coach Hodgson and Arkansas State is almost +150 from last season’s final rankings to where they currently sit. Is that a reasonable expectation for next season?

The team will need an almost a complete makeover. I anticipate some roster turnover as a result of transfers too. Share your thoughts. 

 

 

And there's only 362 schools in D1 basketball. UB has gone from being ranked 22nd in KenPom to 343rd in a period of five years. I know both of those seasons are extreme outliers but that's outrageous no matter how you look at it.

I still think UB is a good mid-major basketball program with a lot of potential moving forward. I'm throwing this season in the garbage and praying for a complete rebuild focused on experienced transfers and JUCO's. The days of building through high school recruits are over. You still need to target a few each season but you can't project 2 years down the line anymore.

Solid start to this one. Bulls giving Toledo a game but will they be able to keep it going into the second half?

Another win for Arkansas State. That's 8 of 9 to get them to 16-14 (11-6). They've clinched a bye to the Sun Belt tournament quarterfinals. Up to 132 in KenPom.

I honestly think a complete re-start with the majority of their roster would be a good thing. I'm one of the people that gave them credit for battling against Georgia Southern and EMU but don't believe they've taken major strides. There's been "slight improvement" with this team but not what you would expect for a roster with a bunch of young players seeing time on the court. Imo, they would easily take care of our team from November but that's not saying much.

With the way the transfer portal is set up, I think Halcovage needs to heavily target upperclassmen and JUCO's. College basketball isn't what it used to be. It doesn't take 2-3 years to build a roster. While I don't expect them to become a MAC contender overnight, there's no reason they can't do what Bowling Green just did and at least become a .500 MAC school next year with the right collection of guys. I think their next step is attempting to field a competitive roster and they'll need more experienced players from better cultures to pull that off.

26 minutes ago, trueblue32 said:

This actually made me LOL. You are out of your mind. So what's your line for the WMU team (#301) we just lost to by 19 against November UB? 50? Too bad we didn't make all this improvement earlier or we'd be contending for a final four!! JMU only beat us by 15, Bonaventure only beat us by 15, Butler only beat us by 13. This current UB team has to be a lock for at least a Sweet 16 then if we'd win by 30

I truly can't believe the flip this board has done where I was on the optimistic side of posters during the Whitesell years and now people are taking moral victories (that are based on??) from a string of double-digit losses to 3rd and 4th tier MAC teams 

It's pretty obvious from a psychological perspective what's happening with the board. This team still had massive expectations during the Whitesell years which according to several people including myself, they didn't meet which led to Whitesell getting fired.

Then after another sub-par coaching search, they landed on Halcovage III which people knew wasn't one of their top choices. Most fans had low expectations heading into this season. I predicted 5-10 wins. Early on, it was obvious they were even worse than that.

So we're grasping at little things to hang our heads on. See the funny thing about expectations is, when you have none, it's easy to become apathetic and no longer care but when you have high standards, it's easy to be disappointed. That's what's going on with UB basketball right now.

12 minutes ago, UBinMD said:

Don’t dispute those stats, however their last NCAA appearance was 2014, they haven’t achieved Sweet 16 let alone Round of 32 since 1996 (note the 1996 season that ended in the final 4 was vacated). They haven’t won the conference tournament since 1996, they were last regular season champs in 2007. Will they be Top 4 in the MAC? Probably and should paying their coach close to double the normal going rate for a MAC coach. Potentially their coach may bail knowing their basketball future will be less bright and his recruiting may take a dip. We have had 2 slighter better than average players jump the MAC to A-10 in the last few years just from UB.

All this said, I don’t see this move doing much to change the image of the MAC. I do appreciate your optimistic outlook of this move and I will grant you it is better than nothing, which is the usual course of the MAC

While you’re right about their lack of tournament success, they’ve had five Top 86 KenPom seasons since 2007. While they have more resources in the A10, they’ve also had a much tougher road playing in a Top 10 league most years. Simply adding them to the MAC won’t drastically change the image of the league but they’ll be a tough team if they continue to spend the same way they currently are. If they reduce their budget, then they could be just another MAC school but I’m assuming they’re making this move because of football and the assumption they’ll be successful in basketball taking a step down.

14 minutes ago, UBinMD said:

Ok, I will reserve judgement until 2025, but it doesn’t make the MAC a 2 bid league or anything of that level. Also, by this logic St Bonaventure would be #1 in the MAC as well. What does their NIL situation look like?
 

They apparently spend a lot of money on athletics, however:

They have 9 men’s sports/10 women’s sports. This includes expensive sports such as hockey and lacrosse. 
 

UB has 6 men’s sports/8 women’s sports. 
 

UMASS: $43.9 million = $2.3 million per sport

Buffalo: $31.0 million = $2.2 million per sport 

Obviously I’m aware each sport isn’t allocated equally but it’s interesting to me nonetheless. 

Correct! This doesn’t make the MAC a 2 bid league but it improves the overall strength of the league and give the conference a better chance of at-large berths into the NCAA Tournament (very unlikely) and the NIT (more probable).

I’d lump UMass in with Akron, Kent State, UB, Ohio and Toledo. They’re good this year but they’ll likely be among the group above during most seasons.

Where this move will have more importance is if it’s a combo move with other teams in play. That’s one way to really improve the strength of the league basketball wise. If I told most mid-major college basketball fans the MAC was adding UMass and WKU, they’d say that’s great for the league.

11 minutes ago, UBinMD said:

Was this chart supposed to be impressive somehow? they are worse than any MAC team in football and Buffalo over this time period is better then UMASS. They are a good academic and research school, spend more money on athletics than anyone in the conferences, yet suck in football and a middling in MBB. Marcus Camby is currently 49 years old, so if that is the “rich basketball history”, that was a while back.
 

UMass has won 11 NCAA Tournament games and has reached the Final Four, Elite Eight and a Sweet 16 and now they're in the MAC. They have the most basketball history of anyone in our conference. They also went to the NIT Finals in 2008 and NIT Semifinals in 2012. They pay Frank Martin over $1.6 million

They're leaving the 8th ranked KenPom conference for the 24th ranked league. They spend money and have a good academic reputation. This is a good move for the MAC. A big reason their football is awful is because they've been independent and recently jumped up to FBS 12 years ago. It's not easy for Northeast Schools in poor recruiting areas to be successful at football. We know that being UB fans lol

1 hour ago, UBinMD said:

UMASS was 3-9 in football, 3 of those losses to MAC teams. Interestingly, they also just hired Shane Montgomery as their new OC. I’m not very excited with this news, maybe I’m missing something.

Mens Basketball is 17-10, but 8-7 in conference. I suppose it will bring us up a notch, but they will also likely start getting lower level players that will be MAC worthy but maybe not A10 worthy.

maybe it will be an upgrade, but I still want out of the MAC.

UMass basketball would be the top team in the MAC this season. Look at it as strictly a basketball addition. The conference benefits when there's more quality teams. Adding UMass helps out with that. I also think it's likely there's another move to be made. The Sun Belt shocked a lot of people with their aggressiveness last year. The MAC obviously took some notes and wants to look out for their long term future.

This is great news for the MAC. Adding UMass is tremendous for basketball and also signals the conference might still want to add Western Kentucky to round things off.

Can you imagine a MAC with:

UMass, WKU, Akron, Toledo, Kent State, Ohio, Buffalo etc...

That's a pretty good mid-major league most years!

2 hours ago, DaBulls99 said:

What I KNOW is the players wanted JW and only JW. I know that from talking to them about the process. The rest is only rumors but from what I’ve heard BH was less about how he left and more about his maturity while a coach here. I've never posted any details bc I don’t know if any of it is true. 

Athletic programs shouldn't be making decisions based on what young, mostly unproven players want, especially in this climate of college athletics. I understand that many of them would've bolted if Whitesell wasn't the choice but UB was riding high at that point. Even if they lost the majority of their roster, a young up-and-coming head coach would've been able to fill the voids on their roster over time. It would've been a different story if we were talking about guys like CJ Massinburg, Jeremy Harris and Nick Perkins. That said, I understand why they ended up with Whitesell after their national search didn't lead to a hire.

I've also been under the impression that the reason Alnutt didn't consider Hodgson was more about perceived maturity issues than how he left.

I had a source very close to the program tell me UB basketball was in big trouble after everything played out in the months following Nate Oats departure. There's a lot that'll never get to the surface out of respect to my source but let's just say the mistakes that took place then have contributed to the downfall of their program and in some ways, continue to impact them today.

1 hour ago, promotherobot said:

Not to defend Alnutt but keep in mind the difference in academic requirements between SUNY and Ark St. 

And was it pride or being turned off by the attitude displayed by Hodgson when Oats left?

I would say the two are intertwined in this circumstance. Alnutt clearly doesn't like Bryan Hodgson and was likely turned off by the way things ended for him in Buffalo. However it's his pride that won't allow Alnutt to move past those circumstances when he had an opportunity to consider hiring a WNY native who was clearly qualified for the job.

And while there are huge academic disparities between UB and Arkansas State, we've already seen the caliber of players Hodgson recruited to Buffalo during Nate Oats time here so that wouldn't factor into the decision in my opinion.

Disappointing game to watch but not unexpected given it being a road game against a hungry team looking to qualify for the MAC Tournament in Cleveland. Buffalo just didn't have it today and it was pretty obvious from the very beginning.

Another win for Arkansas State today. That's 5 in a row and 7 of 8 to get them to 15-14 (10-6) overall and up to 136 in KenPom.

For comparison, this is where UB finished each season under Jim Whitesell:

• 2020: 148
• 2021: 77
• 2022: 130
• 2023: 211

Remember all the comments about Hodgson being out of control, not knowing the x's and o's and not being mature enough to be a head coach... All he's done in his first year is guide a historically weak program to a 151 spot improvement in their KenPom ranking and taken them from a 4-14 Sun Belt record to 10-6.

For perspective on Arkansas State, this is where they finished in KenPom the last six years:

• 2018: 281
• 2019: 254
• 2020: 206
• 2021: 252
• 2022: 181
• 2023: 287

Hodgson knows how college basketball operates. It's a shame UB's athletic director put his pride above improving the program.

I shared this on Twitter earlier. This team keeps fighting. They could've hung their heads a long time ago but they continue to battle and have shown signs of improvement. It's not going to lead to an appearance in Cleveland but it least gives me hope that players enjoy playing under Halcovage III.

10 minutes ago, Tee4three said:

Off topic kind of but watching Memphis vs SMU

Rob Lanier is coaching SMU now and looks to have his team going

When ub originally hired Whitesell, it was rumored they were close to hiring Lanier but he ended up going to Georgia st instead

I wonder if Lanier would have left UB for SMU or if he would have stuck around

That might have been the big miss in hiring by alnutt in hindsight 

I'm assuming he would've left for SMU either way. Big time pay raise and competition increase from the MAC/Sun Belt to the American and soon to be ACC. Lanier was UB's top choice entering their search at the time according to people I spoke with back then.

After a 4-9 start, Hodgson has Arkansas State at 13-14 (8-6), winning 5 of their last 6 (only loss 77-73 to James Madison) and a KenPom ranking of 142 which is four spots back of Toledo (138) which is 2nd in the MAC.

This is all one year after they went 13-20 (4-14) with a KenPom ranking of 287. If this is what they're getting right away while Hodgson is still extremely raw as a head coach, I think it's going to turn out well for him.

Forget the reasons why UB didn't target him... One thing that is crystal CLEAR is that he was deserving of consideration and would likely have this team in a better situation than they currently are.

**NOT USING THIS POST AS AN INDICTMENT OF HALCOVAGE III**

UB battled and gave a solid Akron team a tough fight which is encouraging. They do seem to be improving. That said, they just don't have the right collection of guys. Huge roster turnover will be needed following this season.

I'll take UB wins anyway I can get them at this point! Was happy to see the Bulls go out and battle. It wasn't pretty late but they found a way to get it done.

13 minutes ago, Bluebird96 said:

So GH3 beat someone from the Oats coaching tree.  Could it be a sign of better things to come?  Maybe he’ll get a shot at Hodgson in next year’s MAC-SBC challenge (is it happening again next year?)

It's supposed to be happening again next year.

Having watched a few Arkansas State games this year, they'd be no worse than middle of the pack in the MAC. Their talent alone is better than half of our conference.

Who knows what the future holds for them but they at least have plenty of reasons to be excited with the caliber of guys they're recruiting paired with their fun style of play.

2 minutes ago, Chet said:

I just stated FACTS about what I know. The KenPom and recruiting rankings are what they are. Hodgson is very much trending upwards and GHIII not so much. 

For those who claimed to have detailed knowledge of what Hodgson did or didn’t do when leaving for Bama….good for you. People make mistakes….get over it. He’s is still a relatively young man and if what some of you stated he did is true, I’d imagine he’d want a mulligan. I ran into Hodgson at the airport b4 the hire and Hodgson told me that he was very interested in coming back to UB. This is a relationship business and the fact that ADMA severed the relationship with the Oats years is poor judgement IMO. The FACT is that we cut ties to the greatest era in Bulls basketball history for GHIII and that decision appears to be an absolute joke. 

Very well said!

9 minutes ago, dutchcountry7 said:

You mean in the time between Oats sitting in the athletic department staff meeting and then when the meeting ended immediately putting in his resignation before heading to the airport?  That is when Hodgson had the sit down to talk about his prospect of taking over Buffalo and learned he wasn't going to get the job?  All before he joined Oats at the airport?

I think you're off here.  

Why else would Hodgson have told recruits not to come to Buffalo if he doesn't get the job if he didn't believe he was going to get the job?

Buffalo was blindsided by Oats' departure.  There wasn't time to discuss the succession planning.  You're mistaken and it always seems you're errors end up making Hodgson look better.   Curious... when was the last time you communicated with Hodgson?

I have never had communication with Hodgson in my life outside of the TBT media interviews a few years ago. I have sources that have personally told me UB wasn't blindsided by Nate Oats' departure so I guess we'll just have to disagree considering my sources dealt firsthand with the men's basketball program.

19 hours ago, Chet said:

Currently has Arkansas State at 162 in KenPom as compared to 349 for GHIII and the Bulls. Bulls finished last year at 211 while Arkansas State finished at 287. Hodgson’s recruiting appears not to have missed a beat either.

https://247sports.com/player/rchaun-king-46128951/

https://247sports.com/Recruitment/josh-hill-158020/RecruitInterests/

ADMA severed all ties to the greatest era in Bulls basketball history! Hodgson is a local kid from Jamestown who is a die hard Bills fan. His story of rising through adversity of the foster care system is amazing. 

Hodgson is doing exactly what many of us thought he would. Recruit at a high level and hope it all comes together. It's been shaky but you can see the improvement overall at Arkansas State. We won't know for a while if it's sustainable or will work long term there.

Given his ties to Buffalo, he probably would've had similar results here to what he's currently having down at Arkansas State. That program has very little history and he's already attracting four star recruits.

I was fine with Cohen, McCollum or Calhoun during this latest search. Hodgson was my top target but UB never considered him. Alnutt and others inside the UB program think he's immature, reckless and a poor "face of the program." He's not known for the X's and O's and there's been stories about other things behind the scenes while he was at UB.

Those are the reasons he was never considered. That said, I know UB was aiming for someone with a higher pedigree than George Halcovage III. I hope GHIII can turn things around but know for a fact he wasn't at the top of their list at the beginning.