Big 4 Hoops Blogger

4 hours ago, DocCas86 said:

I did not research the highest UB net ranking was - but here are rankings from Massey Composite for end of year.

Final net rank was 18, with many sites in upper teens to upper twenties.  However, the 2018-19 UB team is a rare exception for any MAC team, so unfair to compare to that level.  A more reasonable measure of the gap is comparison to typical rankings for a top MAC team, 80+/-.  Also, the initial net rank is a bit erratic - as I pointed out Princeton was ranked higher than UConn, NIU was top MAC team.  The majority of sites have UB in 340 range which seems fair given play so far.  There definitely is a ways to go to get back to the top of the MAC, but that was expected in year one.  The question remains will the team develop over the course of the year (they have shown some progress from the Hofstra and Iona games) and will they have a solid core that they can add a few good players so that they are close to the top of the MAC next season.

A question I pose - at this point, what would you put the odds that Bowling Green will have a better ranking next year than UB?  Bowling Green Massey composite is 210 and UB is 346.  Would it be nicer to see a few more wins and better play - but in long run - it may not matter.

Agree with all of this. It’s obviously not fair to expect UB to be around where they were during the 2018-19 season. That was a historic, once in a generation type season that I was hoping they’d use to continue building the program but it wasn’t meant to be.

A more reasonable expectation would’ve been for them to be in the top 90-120 conversation. I still think with the right coach and proper investment, they could’ve remained in the 60-90 range for a few more seasons but it obviously didn’t play out that way.

The original point of the video was to simply show that this program has the ability to be a special, top end mid major that can win tournament games and has fallen down to one of the bottom teams in college basketball.

Will they stay near the cellar? I don’t think so but that’s up to Halcovage and how he does turning things around. We’ll need to be patient.

5 hours ago, yussi1870 said:

He’s comparing NET to AP. Not sure what our NET was that year but wasn’t as high as 14

That’s me and yes, that’s the comparison I was making in the video.

Btw, is it possible to change usernames here so I can go under my actual name? 😂 

17 minutes ago, Bluebird96 said:

Splitting hairs here, but adding up those projected W’s and L’s from KenPom comes out to a 2-28 record, no?  If UB is only favored in 1 game the rest of the way, it would take a lot of upsets to get to 6 wins.  As with most everyone on this board, I hope they’re dead wrong and Bulls find a way to right the ship come MAC play if not sooner

KenPom doesn't project records strictly off of who's favored in each individual game. They go based off the probabilities over the course of the season, factoring in that you'll win some games you're an underdog in percentage wise and lose some that you're expected to win.

That's how they arrive at UB having a 6-24 record despite only being favored in one of their remaining games at the current moment.

KenPom projects Buffalo to go 6-24 with the Niagara game being the only game left on their schedule in which UB is favored. I thought the Bulls would win 10-12 games prior to the season but it's going to be an uphill climb to reach double digits.

8 minutes ago, rma said:

Do you want Tripathi in charge of hiring a new AD, or would you take the field? 

Tripathi is 72, almost 73. As of 2016, only 11% of university presidents were 70+. 
 

I think the immediate future for the athletic program is not amazing (unless you are a volleyball/soccer fan) until there’s clarity about who is running the school in the future.

I don’t trust Alnutt to make future hires. I don’t trust Tripathi to make a good AD hire. There’s no vision for the athletics program that the school had under Bill Greiner. White (who was a Tripathi hire) had a vision but little institutional/community support, and more bitching from the local columnists than support for a flagship athletics program vision. Remember when UB made the big dance for the first time *ever* and all that was in the news was the NYBI logo?
 

Oats had a vision of success but did not get the support from the school (see: lack of student rec center years later). Both have moved on.

 

Wonder what Danny White thinks of Jerry “women can’t have opinions about football” Sullivan these days. Probably doesn’t think much about him….

I’d take the field. The unfortunate part of this situation is the lack of leadership starts at the top and trickles down and impacts the coaches and players for all of their teams.

I always thought it was laughable how mad people got over the NYBI. I thought it was a great marketing tool to get the school’s athletics programs out there. Oats was a genius with his Blue Collar hard hat mentality.

It goes to show a little creativity can go a far way even when fighting an uphill battle with a lack of resources.

Your point is solid though. Do we really trust Tripathi to make the right hire? Probably not.

And even if he does, the battles will still continue. That’s why I think UB needs to heavily pursue an innovative young mind that wants to shake things up with a bold but attainable vision for the athletic department.

8 minutes ago, MuchMany said:

They do. Halcovage will not get "the time he needs to turn around the program" if Alnutt is fired. If you believe in being "patient" re: Halcovage turning things around, then Alnutt doesn't deserve to be fired. You're using a zoomed in analysis of the basketball program at its low point to make a zoomed out point regarding the department as a whole. Ie if UB is back in the mid 100s next year, this small data point of being ranked 360 doesn't really matter at all.

I responded above to this post already but I think you’re oversimplifying my point and coming to an incorrect conclusion. You can be patient with a coach while still making a change above them. It’s not normal but the SUNY system doesn’t operate athletics like most state university systems.

I believe that Halcovage would be given 3-4 years to turn things around at UB regardless of if Alnutt was fired or not. Thats why I don’t believe my points contradict themselves.

You’re under the assumption that Halcovage would be gone if Alnutt left which I don’t believe would be the case. With SUNY’s outlook on sports, I’d find it hard to believe that UB wouldn’t be patient with Halcovage.

My point on the basketball program isn’t just about this year being their new low. They were a Sub-200 KenPom team at points last year as well. This is about Alnutt overlooking the major regression of UB football and basketball during his tenure. 

13 minutes ago, MuchMany said:

Your first paragraph and your second and third paragraphs contradict each other. 

They actually don’t. I’m talking about long term regression from the point of Oats leaving until now. I never once mentioned that I thought Halcovage was a bad hire or that I don’t like him.

I’m simply referring to the drop off the men’s program from one that was 32-4 and ranked 14th in the country in 2018-19 to one that is the 3rd lowest NET team in the country right now. I’m putting the blame on Alnutt. Not Halcovage.

I’m not referring to Halcovage at all with that post. I’m going to be patient and give him the time he needs to turn around the program.

My point is that Alnutt’s managing of the basketball program has seen them regress from being one of the top mid-majors in the country to one of the worst teams in D1.

The thread is about whether or not Alnutt should be fired. This is more evidence that supports the point.

29 minutes ago, Steve86 said:

Not really surprising to anybody who is watched the team play this year.
 

What point are you trying to make?

Title of the thread answers that question.

This is where things currently stand with the men’s basketball program.

I really appreciate your response RMA. That’s probably the most thorough, well put explanation of what Alnutt has done so far as Buffalo’s athletic director. 
 

I am guilty of putting a heavy emphasis on football and basketball. In the end, I don’t think Alnutt is going anywhere anytime soon but wanted to address it on here with it being a topic brought up on social media often among the UB fans I interact with.

As you brought up, there’s points backing up both sides of the conversation.

Jim Mora Jr. is 100% correct and I've been preaching that on this board for a few years now.

11 hours ago, MKBullsfan said:

I think coaches should be given 3 years to prove themselves. If by year 3 you haven’t shown you can recruit/coach or showing an positive trend with wins increasing each year then change is needed. The AD should have 5 years to show results trending in a positive direction or conference championships from his own hires. Have we seen this? Do fans feel excited to watch Bball or football anymore?

The word to describe most of the UB fanbase right now is apathetic which is the result of football and basketball going from having their best seasons in program history within the past five years to now being among the worst teams in D1 at the present moment.

15 minutes ago, Tee4three said:

From a basketball point of view, you need to see how the coach does a bit longer than four games to judge if alnutt hit a HR or missed

 

I don't follow closely other sports(non football and basketball)but aren't other sports doing well and have hired good coaches recently?

 

No one is judging Halcovage right now. I stated in my video it's way too early to evaluate him and the early returns on Burke are encouraging.

The Alnutt conversation has more to do with the major regression of MBB/WBB and Football under him the past few years. The Bulls non-money sports have been successful recently but we'd all agree that's not the number one priority for AD's in drumming up community support.

If you like this video and want to see more UB and Buffalo sports takes, please subscribe to my new YouTube channel. I have the link below. I'm hoping to grow it in addition to my Twitter page.

33 minutes ago, Blue03 said:

I vote yes taking note of the term “consider”. Yes our teams suck, complete and total regression, but why is that? Football, MBB, and WBB all had our great coaches leave, and the results left with them. So we find ourselves in a hole that’s not exactly Alnutt’s fault, but now it’s on him to fix it. And you can’t say he’s done the worst job trying to do so. We’ve seen record recruiting classes and admit it, at some point you’ve found yourself at least a little bit excited about each of his major coaching hires. We get mad at Alnutt when the coaching appointment doesn’t work out, but at the beginning it doesn’t look like a bad hire. We could beg him to hire a coach, and if the appointment we ask for doesn’t win championships we’d still be blaming him for it. Some things you just can’t know until it plays out, even though the coaches seem like they’ll be a good fit. All in all he’s done his job, he’s made Buffalo and enticing place for recruits and brought it quality coaches. Are there things he needs to be better at? Absolutely, need to improve attendance and support. Is he the right one for the job? Probably not, that’s why I think we should consider replacing him. But it’s worth at least seeing the things he’s done right.

I agree with the majority of this and appreciate the balanced, well thought out response. I think it’s a complicated topic but one that many in the UB fanbase will have varying opinions on.

In my video, I try to take a fair viewpoint while also supporting my stance. I was a fan of the Maurice Linguist and Becky Burke hires due to a preference for young up & coming coaches with recruiting ability. I never liked the Jim Whitesell hire although I understood the logic behind it. I'm going to give George Halcovage time due to the situation he's inheriting.

My concerns beyond the success of the money sports definitely has to deal with dwindling community support and and a general apathy that has grown among UB fans over the past few years. There was a ton of momentum behind the athletic department from 2015-2020 and it's fading away due to a lack of positive results recently.

Given the major regression in Buffalo's three major money sports, I wonder if it's time for UB to start looking into Mark Alnutt's future with the athletic department. I'm not one to call for people's jobs but the regression in football and basketball is apparent right now.

I never expected football and basketball to continue dominating after Lance Leipold, Nate Oats and Felisha Legette-Jack departed but I did expect them to be more competitive and have more opportunities to win MAC Championships. Now, we're seeing football and men's basketball near the bottom of the D1 ranks with WBB still to be determined.

I understand that Alnutt has a very difficult job with little support from SUNY or UB's president but it's his job to raise money and look over successful teams, especially in the money sports. I give him credit for raising money for the Murchie Family Fieldhouse but can't overlook his recent botched hires, declining performance of football/basketball and diminished community support.

Where do you all stand on this?

Proud of the effort today. I thought both sides of the ball hung in there against Wisconsin. Need to avoid a letdown home opener against Fordham which was a sneaky good FCS program last year.

2 hours ago, DocCas86 said:

Boals can definitely recruit, with five players out of nineteen (26%) recruits who scored 5 or more points in their freshman year.  The question will be how long they play for Ohio.   Sears left after two years, possible that AJ Brown  leaves after this coming season.  Not a knock on Boals, but indicative of the 'transfer portal' world we live in.

 

This is another area where collectives will be vital in the future. Everyone always focuses on using the money to bring in new recruits but it'll also be necessary to raise funds in hopes of retaining your best talent.

2 hours ago, DocCas86 said:

Boals can definitely recruit, with five players out of nineteen (26%) recruits who scored 5 or more points in their freshman year.  The question will be how long they play for Ohio.   Sears left after two years, possible that AJ Brown  leaves after this coming season.  Not a knock on Boals, but indicative of the 'transfer portal' world we live in.

 

Mid-majors have become a feeder system for P5 schools. The good news about that is many P5 players that don't work out will be looking to transfer to mid-majors. Another consequence of the portal is that some talented high school recruits that would've quickly been recruited to P5 schools in the past are forced to sign with mid-major schools with P5 programs opting for "sure things" instead of investing in player development. 

The days of playing the long term game are over. Coaches have been forced to transition to year-to-year mode instead of building towards the future.

Ohio lands a Top 200 HS recruit in the 2024 class. Ayden Evans is a 6-10 center (listed as 6-8) on 247, a 3 star recruit, ranked 185th in his class and 32nd among centers. He chose the Bobcats over West Virginia, Seton Hall, Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Missouri. Bobcats will be anxious to make sure he signs during the fall.

https://247sports.com/player/ayden-evans-46118012/

Rivals has him listed as a 4 star player.

https://n.rivals.com/content/athletes/ayden-evans-286511?view=pv

Buffalo secures a commitment from Missouri State transfer James Graham III. Former 4 star, Top 100 prospect who began his career at Maryland.

Looks like he was listed as a sophomore last season so he should have a few years of eligibility remaining. Hasn’t produced much in limited action but would seem to be a player worth taking a chance on based on his previous recruiting profile.

https://247sports.com/player/james-graham-46058803/

I can tell you that many Ohio fans thought Javonte Brown was going to Athens and they believe money played a role in his decision to commit to WMU.

It's not just about NIL and collectives but how you allocate your resources. Many coaches are being forced to act like GM's with the transfer portal essentially serving as free agency.