Big 4 Hoops Blogger

Bump... How are we feeling about Whitesell now? Has losses to Howard (274), Miami (287) and Central Michigan (288) with UB sitting in the 200+ KenPom group.

We all knew this would be a rebuilding season but this is another disappointing setback after a pair of decent games against Ohio and NIU.

Congrats on the win! As you guys know, I'm always conflicted when UB and Ohio battle it out. I thought Buffalo did a great job defending the Bobcats tonight. Nothing came easy for them, especially down low in the first half.

Bulls athleticism was on display. AJ Clayton was consistently getting burned defensively. Buffalo was absolutely deadly with 20 offensive rebounds. If UB can play like they did tonight, they'll be a tough game most nights in the MAC.

The biggest concerns, some poor shot selection and shot making ability. It felt like UB was dominating this game and still let Ohio have a chance to tie it up at the end. Need to clean that up. Otherwise, not much to complain about. Should grab another win over NIU.

This week, we opened our show discussing the UB/WVU game. A lot of positives for the Bulls. Hope you check out the show!

We opened our show this week discussing the UB/WVU game. I was really encouraged by UB overall. The first 30 minutes provided a lot of positives. Obviously not the outcome we all wanted but hopefully a step in the right direction outside of the final 10 minutes.

We discussed Buffalo's loss against Tulane starting at the 32:00 mark. We also talked about how it's a down year for the Big 4 and the importance of UB finding their identity.

On 12/10/2022 at 1:56 PM, Bluebird96 said:

This is what we’re going to see all season. Some clunkers mixed in with some solid games and hopefully more W’s than L’s when it comes time for MAC play. Up and down, good and bad, that’s what is to be expected from a team with so many new parts.

Some positives to take away from today are the 49 rebounds and 21/28 FT’s (75%). I was surprised to see only 16 attempts from 3 being down so big, but we aren’t a strong 3-Pt shooting team so I’d rather see a reasonable number of shots than chucking it up 30-40 times a game and hoping to hit a few. We can get away with that vs SJFU but not a solid D1 team. 

This is my general takeaway as well. It's going to be a roller coaster type season. In the end, I hope there's more highs than lows and that they get hot heading into Cleveland. Much different mentality than past years for me personally.

1 hour ago, DocCas86 said:

Thank you for the analysis.  Once again some good content.

A couple of points, first I am hopeful for the game against Tulane.  If UB pulls off a win, certainly UB is not the favorite, but they would be 4-2 against some good teams, and that bodes well for MAC play.

Preseason, I was thinking UB ranking would be 150 to 175 range.  I wonder which loss hurts them more, JMU or Howard.  At this stage I could see the team rank exceed my expectations to be around 125-150.  This would give them an outside chance in Cleveland.  A wildcard to me is does Chatman rejoin the team and how does he fit in.

Lastly, liked your discussion of the portal. It would be interesting to get candid insights from coaches and players, but not much chance of that.  I wonder if last year was the norm going forward for UB, or if Whitesell will be able to keep guys.  I don't know how much you can play the grass isn't always greener, but there are examples of that.  Definitely a new challenge faced by mid majors, and UB certainly has their share.  I guess as you said, winning probably increases the likelihood of players staying put.  So I will keep rooting for the w's. 🙂

Appreciate you tuning in! Tulane game is definitely winnable with them recently losing at home against Fordham. Won't be easy for UB though.

I think 125-150 is a fair expectation for this group based on their early results this season. UB is currently 165 in KenPom. The Howard game is their only ugly looking loss in the metrics while James Madison was their worst effort overall.

While it might be difficult to get coaches to speak on record, we do have a few connections that we can hopefully get some more insight from at some point during the season.

Great win for Buffalo over the weekend against St. Bonaventure. The Bulls dominated from the very beginning. Curtis Jones and Zid Powell look to be a dangerous 1-2 punch. A big key for the Bulls was getting Chad Venning into foul trouble early. Yann Farrell will be good for the Bonnies but was their only real threat on Saturday.

UB is looking solid heading into the end of non-conference play. The victory over Bona changes my outlook a little bit. Buffalo now has three Top 130 KenPom victories just eight games into their season. They might have the ability to cause some problems in MAC play.

I’ll eat crow, I didn’t see that coming. Great win for UB. I’m really encouraged by the 1-2 scoring punch they’re developing with Jones/Powell.

It’s never easy controlling the tempo against St. Bonaventure and the Bulls controlled the pace from the very start.

Curtis Jones is playing out of his mind! 27 points with 11 minutes left. UB might have a young star in the making.

I'm giving St. Bonaventure a slight edge in this one. Bonnies are good at slowing down the pace which could give UB some issues. SBU guards are hit or miss. Banks and Luc both have the ability to go off any given night but also have the potential to force shots and struggle from the field.

Their young forwards have some ability. Transfer Chad Venning has size and was strong against Notre Dame. Freshman Barry Evans was highly touted and Yann Farrell was a Top 150 recruit for them, choosing St. Bonaventure over a bunch of P5 programs.

Buffalo has a chance today but they'll need to take care of the ball and shoot well overall. Bonnies lost to Canisius, which is awful but have responded well since. I'll pick the Bonnies 67-63.

1 hour ago, DocCas86 said:

Thank you for sharing your thoughts.  Here are some points to consider. 

First, I am not sure I understood / agreed with you point about the remaining schedule.  I think when you look at the schedule as a whole, UB will have played six teams that are currently ranked between 68 and 130 per Kenpom.  This is arguably the range of the top 3 MAC teams.  So this schedule gives you six glimpses into how the team stacks up against the MAC top teams (matchup differences aside).  The games against Bona and Tulane will definitely inform you about this team.  The two quad 1 games remaining can tell you how tough / determined this team is.  The two D3 games are likely just to keep the team motivated as they go through a very tough stretch and help the optics of the OOC record.

At this point, I agree that the Bulls still have to prove whether they can consistently compete with top teams in the MAC.  However, after a 20 point win - the best you can muster in terms of good things to say is the better team won?  Jones is emerging as a leader of this team with his third straight 22 point effort, shooting 14 for 21 (67%) from 2pt range and 11 for 28 (39%) from 3pt range during that time.  The rest of the scoring has been spread amongst 4 or 5 players - so there is generally good balance.  Perhaps it would be good to see someone emerge as a consistent #2 offensive threat, but personally I think the balance is welcome.  The team has been good at forcing turnovers, defending the 3pt shot and showed improvement in a weak area - offensive rebounding.   There are areas to improve still, and  you do a good job highlighting them - defensive rebounding / turnovers / etc.

 

Appreciate your response and input.

My point about the schedule is that it’s one that could potentially really beat up this Bulls squad.

As mentioned earlier, there’s multiple different philosophies on how to create non-conference schedules. I’ll never say I’m right or wrong because it’s all about individual point of views. This is a schedule I’d be more in favor of if UB was expected to be a MAC contender. With a rebuilding squad, I would’ve liked something more along the lines of what St. Bonaventure put together to build some confidence.

KenPom has UB as underdogs in their next four D1 games and heavy underdogs against WVU and MSU.

Realistically, Buffalo could be 5-8 after 13 games if they don’t find a way to split Bona/Tulane which are both hovering around Top 100.

There are aspects of this UB team that I’m encouraged about but it’s difficult to take too much away from a dominating win over Canisius, although there is something to be said about taking care of business which the Bonnies failed to do against the Griffs.

Curtis Jones has been incredible and I think Zid Powell is fitting in nicely. Jones has a scoring touch that I didn’t see happening this quickly in his career. I like the Bulls defensive intensity but there hasn’t been many other high level performers. Hardnett has taken a step forward to where I think many of us expected him to be a few years ago. As far as Adams and Foster, they’re scoring but I’m hoping they’re able to step up their level of play because I was expecting a little bit more out of both of them. UB has been playing with a fast tempo which is nice but they also have to cut down on their turnovers. I think the MAC preseason prediction of 6th place will be pretty close to accurate with this squad.

I'm going to update the link to our show every week here so I don't need to start new threads. Fast forward to the 15:00 mark for some UB talk. We discuss their challenging upcoming slate of games and breakdown their recent victory over Canisius.

We started the show this week discussing St. Bonaventure's win over Notre Dame if you want insight on the Bonnies and spent some time near the end breaking down Nate Oats recent success at Alabama.

Going live with our latest episode at 6:45. I’ll post the link below and the replay of it afterwards. Lots to discuss today regarding UB.

Big 4 Talk Episode 3

Ohio led by as many as nine points and had a 61-55 lead at U4 timeout before things unraveled. Bobcats roster full of transfers and young freshman. Dwight Wilson III is back for his final year of eligibility and was an absolute beast tonight. Rest of team is trying to figure out their identity. Has the feel of Kent/Akron where they might struggle a little bit to open the season before figuring things out in MAC play.

 So, that was a tough week for UB... It wasn't unexpected but never good to get blown out in back-to-back conference games in mid-February. The Bulls are struggling and they don't exactly have freebies remaining on their schedule. Buffalo already lost to three of their four remaining opponents. Siting at 12-15 overall, it looks like they could have their first losing season since Reggie Witherspoon's final year with the program in 2012-13 when they went 14-20.

John and I addressed the current state of the Big 4 and if UB is capable of making a run in Cleveland. Fast-forward to the 17:30 mark for UB talk.

Haven’t been posting much lately but enjoyed the hell out of their win over Toledo.

Big game coming up angainst Ohio. You guys know how I’m divided when these two teams play.

Bobcats looked sloppy earlier in the year but are starting to put things together, much like UB has. Kurtis Rourke has finally become a top tier MAC quarterback like his brother. Bobcats secondary was horrendous / look up Fordham game numbers but have done better against MAC competition.

On 10/19/2022 at 6:05 AM, DocCas86 said:

Signs that Ohio will still be in mix for MAC title this year?

On paper, the Bobcats have a really talented roster. The question is how quickly their transfers and newcomers can gel together.

I’d expect them to be in the mix in March.

16 hours ago, mikescherrer8 said:

I think its safe to say rankings wise, it's THE best. 

You're definitely correct based on the modern era and no one comes close. Most of these recruiting services have only been around for a few decades though.

Would like to mention Ohio had a Parade All American and National High School player of the year in their 1972 class. Impossible to compare era's but it’s arguable that Walter Luckett is the top high school recruit to commit to a MAC program (non-transfer situation).

One of the best recruits to ever commit to a MAC school. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Former 5 star, Top 5 recruit in 2021 class.

3 hours ago, MKBullsfan said:

I’m optimistic that we could finish in the top 4 and the reason is because of the new free agency in college basketball and adding in graduations.  The other MAC school’s rosters turned over almost as much as ours did. It’s basically a whole new conference of players compared to last year. 

I’m confident UB will be competitive and a .500 or better team but I don’t think they’ll finish in the Top 4 of the MAC.

Toledo is still good without Rollins. Carry is returning to Kent State and Ohio has a strong collection of newcomers in addition to Dwight Wilson coming back. Factor in Ball State being much improved and Akron being the defending champs, I don’t think it’s likely UB will be near the top. IMO, they’ll be in the middle of the pack (5th-7th)

I am intrigued to see what Whitesell does with his own players though. This is a fresh start. Hopefully this team steps up and plays loose with lesser expectations.

Ohio just landed another decent transfer, Devon Baker out of Tulane. Scored only 6 ppg last year but averaged 16 ppg on 43% shooting and 34% 3-pt shooting at UNC Asheville. Would imagine he'll be one of their primary scorers.

With their three incoming transfers and strong HS class, you'd have to imagine they'll be near the top of the MAC again next year.

The players in the locker room liked Casey Case a lot last season and thought he deserved an opportunity. Obviously, the coaching staff wanted to bring in some competition with Cole Snyder.

Right now, I think it's a coin flip. Case seems like the better passer with Snyder being more of a mobile threat.

I don't think any of their other quarterbacks are in the running right now. Matt Myers had a brutal start to the spring game and was the 3rd quarterback to take snaps.

Just now, clodney said:

If our only reason for keeping a coach is because he is less expensive then Buffalo basketball is dead.

Yep, I think a lot of us saw the cracks in the pavement a while ago but it’s more obvious now after what’s gone down during the past four months.

UB fans better pray these 3 star sophomores have some game and can elevate themselves to the recent standard established by this program or the Bulls could be in for a long year.