UB92

I haven't done my game analysis yet since we start our mid-week MACTION this Tuesday. In fact, there isn't even a line I can find on the game yet. At any rate, UB visits Athens. The Bobcats are 3rd in the conference (through 4 conference games) in both offensive scoring and defensive scoring (UB is 2nd in both cats, by the way). Alas, Ohio is last in the MAC (through 4 conference games) in yards allowed (481 yds/games), though second in yards gained per game. A big theme for Ohio has been getting turnovers. OU has gotten 10 turnovers the past four games, but has only turned the ball over twice. Ohio's last game, a 24-17 win hosting NIU, they were outgained by the Huskies, but were more efficient on 3rd down to keep drives moving. The game before that, WMU self-destructed at home versus Ohio. These are WMU second half drives: (they were down 20 - 14 at half) Downs (at Ohio 14) Fumbled punt reception (at WMU 40) Interception (at Ohio 19) Interception (at WMU 12) Interception (at Ohio 34) Downs (at WMU 17) Interception (at WMU 43) Interception (at WMU 25) 2 plays (end of game) Remember...WMU is playing at home in this game against the (from a yards allowed perspective) the worst defense in the MAC. I would suspect that UB will have an opportunity to both move the football and score points against Ohio. When Ohio has the ball, Rourke is the guy. He's been more accurate this year than last and has a higher average yards per completion. Basically, he's just been better. And that isn't even counting his ability to run the football. Rourke runs when he needs to. UB got away with one last week, grabbing victory out of the jaws of defeat when Toledo imploded. But that's why they play the game. We saw a few years ago when UB played at Kent State that, sometimes, the momentum is too difficult to overcome. At any rate, UB has some good skill players and they are always dangerous. UB is getting better each week as guys are learning to play together. Those other games...they are in the past. It is a new team (on both sides of the ball) each week. This should be another high-scoring affair and a close game. I don't see UB getting blown out in this game. Like the rest, one play here or there could make the difference. Go Bulls!

Wooly Bully!

That's like 1000x more committed than a guy who is only 100000000% committed.

Remember when Baylor came to UB Stadium? I am hoping it doesn't look like that... I am thinking that Toledo is probably the second best team we will play this season. With UB 3 - 0 in conference, that's good bulletin board material. I suspect they will want to make a statement. But Toledo has its warts and there are areas where UB can exploit them: (1) I would like to see us try and run out kickoffs...I think we can get yards this way (based on their KO coverage) and break a big play, (2) take away the deep ball....if UT drives the field on us, so be it, but there are more opportunities for int, bad penalty or fumble if they have more plays and (3) we need a balanced attack...so we have to establish some running game.

I know I have an intramural champions shirt with this logo. It may have been used even before 1992 in different contexts. Will have to dig out that shirt.

Any hats or just shirts? Would certainly pay for this as I am not near Buffalo

If that happens, please put the link here. Thanks.

Toledo opened as a 7 point road favorite. When I have been doing these analyses over the past few weeks, it has provided me with more optimism then what I initially had for a UB victory for that game. Alas, this one is going to be tough... The Rockets are led by Dequan Finn, who is coming off a 6 TD passing / 1 TD rushing game this past Saturday vs. Kent St. Remember when the Bulls had Tyree Jackson and, sometimes, he'd just launch it down the field and let his athletic receivers make a play? That was a lot of what happened for Toledo this past weekend. UB fans are not going to like hearing the name Jerjuan Newton on Saturday as he is the primary playmaking WR. They also use their senior TE in the passing game (Jamal Turner), especially around the end zone (he has 5 TDs). Oh...and if that isn't enough, the QB (Finn) is Toledo's leading rusher (yards attempts). In other words, the UB defense is going to get a workout. The previous week against NIU, the Toledo defense (well...one guy...Quinyon Mitchell) had 4 INTs, two of them were of the pick-6 variety. They beat NIU 52 - 32 and it wasn't even that close (NIU got a lot of garbage time yards and points). The week before that? Same story...the Rockets had a 31 - 3 halftime lead against CMU before cruising to a 38 - 17 win. And it isn't as if Toledo are front runners...against Kent they were down 28 - 7 before getting in gear on offense and shutting down the Kent State offense. Toledo is #1 in the MAC (all games) in average yards per play on defense...and that includes the 77 point / 763 yards against the Buckeyes! UB is 9th in that category. The Bulls are better than we thought they were, especially after the lackluster Holy Cross loss. They have confidence after the four straight wins, especially moving the ball on offense. But this is going to be a big, big test. It is good UB is at home. UB has a week to develop a game plan on defense to try to slow down the Toledo attack. On offense, I think UB will be able to move the ball at times, but I don't think the Bulls come out on top if this is one of those typical MAC 40+ each team shootouts. They are going to need to generate some takeaways on defense and get some big plays on offense (and keep the chains moving with smart decision making from Snyder). I suspect the line drifts up as the week progresses...so if you are a UB fan, you will probably get better odds later in the week. Go Bulls!

The hat with that logo is long gone...but I do have an intramural shirt with that logo on it! I may have to look up UB athletics shop tomorrow and get me a replacement hat. Go Bulls

The line opened at 15.5, but is now around 17. UMass (or UMess, as they are appropriately known in the Bottom 10), won 1 game last year, 0 the year before and 1 game in 2019. Their lone win this year is against the other SUNY flagship... But, relative to previous seasons, the losses this year seem to be closer. That's something. This past week against a 1-loss Liberty team, Umass lost by 18. A big culprit was their inability to make 3rd downs (1 - 14), though Liberty was never really in trouble. A 6 - 14 performance by two QBs (for 88 yards) just won't get it done for UMass. The previous week, UMass visited Ypsilanti and led 13 - 0 midway through the 3rd quarter before EMU rallied for a 20 -13 win. UMass is pretty inept at throwing the ball, (8 - 18, 87 yards in the EMU game), so they sort of live and die on the ground. Versus EMU, their QB (Campiotti) ran it 25 times. Against Liberty, Campiotti rushed for just 14 yards (on 13 carries, which undoubtedly includes some of the negative yards from six sacks). Garrett Dzuro started, though, but was eventually replaced by Campiotti. It seems like both should see action versus UB. In Temple's 28 - 0 win against UMass earlier in the year, they played three QBs (Campiotto, Wise and Olson). What to expect this week? UMass doesn't have a passing attack. Their best opportunity to move the ball through the air is with Dzuro, it seems. Dzuro arrived at UMass in 2019, but was redshirted (and took the COVID do over), so he is a sophomore this year. He is a pro-style QB from St. Eds in Cleveland. Perhaps UMass will have him start and see if they can't surprise the Bulls by throwing more in the opening parts of the game. But that likely won't amount to much. Expect a lot of UMass running the ball, especially with Campiotti, since UB is on film as having a hard time stopping a running QB from the Holy Cross game. Perhaps UMass uses Campiotti right from the start and has him run around until UB proves they can stop him. We shall see. On defense, expect UMass to make some plays (they are better on D this year than previous years), but UB has been able to move the ball through the air with their QB/WR combos. It would be a big upset if UB loses, but anything is possible if they don't play as hard as they have these past three weeks. We've already seen that.

Those announcers were bad. Not Josh Cribbs bad, but they could see him from where they are. This was just one of those days for the Bulls. Be happy when it happens. While it is always tough to win on the road in conference, it helps when the other team makes a billion mistakes and tacks on 100+ penalty yards.

My boldface. This is a good point and, I think, often overlooked. There are a lot of paths to success. How do you best use the tools you (and your staff) have to be successful (and I am counting success as, ultimately, wins and losses). I think a good example was LL. His teams seemingly game planned well during the week at UB, but made little/no successful second half adjustments. Perhaps that wasn't a collective strength of the staff, but they were successful anyway because of the players they recruited, how they coached them up in the off-season and during the week, how they game planned, etc. At this point, there are certainly (obvious) things that our current coach (and his staff) need to improve on, but I am glad that he is attempting to leverage the school's connection to the NFL (and to the NFL team in Buffalo). I hope he has tremendous success with this and it leads to continued strong recruiting classes. Recall that, at least on one site, UB had the second best recruiting class this past year. https://eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com/college-football/recruiting/mac/ By way of comparison, we were last in 2020 from this same site.

I hope that this is the case. I don't think his accuracy is great at the moment (in general). He was pretty off on some throws this past week, though was better vs. EMU. It is a work in progress and the expectation is that he develops with game reps and practice. His best play (besides the pass at the end of the game) was that 4th down run for the TD. That cut he made was really good. Watching it on TV, it seemed he was easily going to be tackled, but made that sharp cut and got into the end zone. I am optimistic for his future.

Our Bulls opened on Sunday afternoon as about a 2 point dog, but the line quickly moved making UB the favorite by Monday morning. Currently, UB sits as a 2-point road favorite. Bowling Green ruined the Zips Homecoming last weekend, winning 31 - 28. Akron is a crappy team, but they are less crappier than they have been, so going on the road to Akron isn't as easy as it has been. BGSU was a 9 point favorite and benefitted from 3 Zips turnovers (including a muffed punt at their own 5). Akron moved the ball on BGSU, as have many teams this year on the BGSU defense. Marshall racked up about 550 yards against BGSU on the road...and lost in OT. That's what happens when you turn the ball over 3x. The Falcons lost at home to EKU in 7 OT in the second game of the season, but were only 7.5 point favorites. On offense, Matt McDonald has been strong this year. The senior, who started his career at Boston College, was banged up for the Miss. St. loss and didn't play, but returned for the Akron game. He has a 13:1 TD:Int ratio, and has only been sacked 5 times this season. For BGSU, he is the key to the game. Overall, UB bobbed and weaved their way to a victory last week, making a big play at the end of the game (aided by the offsides). With an experienced QB in McDonald, UB's defensive backs will be tested. BGSU uses a variety of RBs on offense, though running the ball isn't a team strength. If UB can stop the run game, it will make it easier for them to get pressure and keep more of the LBs in coverage. It is a MAC game in October at Noon, so it is reasonable to expect a back-and-forth tussle. The sharps have the o/u at 54.5, but that seems low to me. I would expect something closer to 60. It should be another close game. Winning on the road is always a challenge. Go Bulls!

The oddsmakers have Lance as second choice for the Wisconsin job, behind the interim HC.

Public Service Announcement. Just a reminder that there is an ignore user feature in the options…😀

We sort of snatched victory there. I will take it. I know UB isn’t a great team this year, but I have no other team, so a win is a win, whatever way it looks. Snyder is a work in progress. The offensive line is going to be a struggle. But they have some difference makers on offense. great hit at the end of the game to stop them in 4th down! I also liked how our RB knocked two players out of the game on the same play. That’s tough running. Go Bulls!

I think that UB, to be honest, is the best of a bunch of bad choices owing the games available at that time. Others on this board in that arena (i.e., TV broadcasting) might be able to speak more precisely and specifically on that, however. Here are TV ratings for college football games, week-to-week. I don't think they include CBSSN, however, unless it was below their threshold for measurement! https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/ You can even look at historic ratings at the bottom of the page...

Some lines had UB as a 1 point favorite opening, others with Miami as favorite. As of Monday afternoon, Miami is a 1 point favorite. It has gotten as high as 1.5. I wouldn't expect this line to drift either way more than a point or two. The Red Hawks are 2 wins in 4 games this season. The played Kentucky tough to open the season (the Wildcats kicked a FG as time expired in the first half to take the lead...then returned the second half kickoff for a TD). And what did Miami do on the drive right after that? Fumbled on the second play from scrimmage...and UK scored again. That's 17 points in about a minute of game time. From 10 - 10 to 10 - 27 in a hurry...and that was really that. They slept through a game hosting Robert Morris, turning the ball over 3 times, but won 31 - 14. They "hosted" Cincy next, which means they bussed a bunch of students down to the stadium where the Bengals play. Miami was up 17 - 7 in the second quarter before Cincy got the wake up call on defense (and scored the next 31 points). Miami was 1 - 13 on 3rd and 4th down...and only completed 9 passes (ten, if you count the interception). This past Saturday the Red Hawks travelled to Evanston to take on Northwestern. NU beat the Huskers in Ireland to open the season, which was a lot more about Nebraska (and Frost's decision making) than NU. They Northwestern proceeded to lose to Duke and S. Illinois. The Miami vs Northwestern game was a defensive struggle. Miami got on the board following a punt block towards the end of the first half to make it a 7 - 7 tie. A lot of punts in the second half, but eventually Northwestern won the field position game and scored a TD. Miami answered right back with a long TD run. Miami drove at the end of the game to kick a field goal and win. The teams combined for 14 punts (including the block). What about this week? It seems clear that Miami has a pretty good defense. They will struggle on offensive a bit w/o Gabbert. Aveon Smith, their backup, is a work in progress. They were very committed to the run vs Northwestern (they ran in 44 times) and outside of the long run for the TD by Mozee, didn't get a lot going. I would expect more of the same vs. UB. Buffalo's offense got rolling last week and now comes home. Miami is coming off a big win. There are two questions: (1) How well can UB stop the Miami run and (2) can UB move the ball effectively vs. the stout Miami defense. UB is going to have to limit big plays from Miami (e.g., kick off return for a TD) and win the turnover battle. If they do, I like their chances this week. Go Bulls.

Wait. You responded to this and didn’t take the L? You literally wrote “Auto loss. No way they will compete on the road”. That was your prediction.

This was a good win. I was hoping it was high-scoring and we were able to come out on top. Let's enjoy this one tonight and move to next week. First place in the MAC East.

Your basketball takes are more detailed/thought out. Thus, even if you are incorrect on a prediction, at least there is some substance on basketball. This one...not so much.

This list is interesting. They go to UCF and Fresno State, but I don't see any return game scheduled yet. Perhaps this is a buy game for both UCF and Fresno. If those are buy games (UCF and Fresno), it tells you a lot about where the MAC is at the moment. I will also say that Kent State uses the money to likely finance some of the rest of their athletic budget. Like, I am sure, most MAC teams, most of the funding for football comes from internal transfers.

$5.2M https://www.google.com/search?q=kent state and football and fuarantee games&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b-1-m I didn’t research this much, but maybe there would be something about it in the school newspaper. The Kent State football experience is somewhere between a good Ohio HS and an FCS team.

The Bottom 10 came out today. https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/34631225/college-football-bottom-10-gets-royal-treatment-new-no-1 McGee called us "Bottom 10 regulars", but that is a bit harsh. However, it tells us it hasn't been that long between our last Bottom 10 appearance and now. We are at #9, but have a change to move up (down?) The lines for the MAC games this week are...high. In five games we are at least 25 point underdogs: Kentucky -25.5 vs NIU Penn State -28 vs CMU Liberty -29.5 vs Akron (yes...Liberty) Miss. St -30 vs BGSU UGA -45.5 vs Kent State In looking at all of these games, I think Kent will cover that number. Kent imploded a bit and Oklahoma beat them up on big plays, but they got very healthy against LIU. 45 is ALOT of points. Even if Georgia rolls big 56 - 13, that's still a Kent St cover. I also think Akron shouldn't be getting that many points from Liberty. The flames had two wins vs Southern Miss and UAB, but lost on a failed 2pt conversion at Wake last weekend at the end of the game. Those things tend to linger and spill over. I can see Liberty sleepwalk through that game. The rest? Who knows. Heck...if you are a MAC fan, go with all the underdogs!