DocCas86

Meant to quote this as well: Yet somehow that roster was at least .500. Now look at this current group, with the addition of Sy who is the best player of the bunch by far, and sitting on 1 win. I believe this regression is explained with four items. Most of the regression is on the defensive side. UB adjusted defense last year was 103.8 (3rd in the MAC) to 114.6 (11th in the MAC). 3P Shooting - last years team shot 32.6% from three compared to this years team 27.0%. Compound that with the fact that this year's team is relying more on the 3 point shot (44% of the field goal attempts this year are from 3 compared to 35% last year). Overall this leads to an offensive efficiency that was 7th in MAC last year to 11th in the MAC this year. Part of the drop in shooting percentage is we lost Jones who made 35.5%, the rest is the regression of Adams who shot 36.7% from 3 last year compared to 22.0% this year. Assists - The assist rate is down from last year possibly correlated to more difficult shots and lower shooting percentages. Forced Turnovers: The forced turnover rate is down. Zid and Armoni combined for 3 steals a game. Poor interior defense - Opponents this year are hitting 2 point shots 56.6% of the time (11th in the MAC) . This is up from 50.8% (5th in the MAC). I admit in hindsight that I overlooked Zid's benefit from defensive standpoint.

Looking at the seasons for the UB transfers from last year: The only players that would have made a meaningful impact on team this year would have been Jack, Jones and Ceaser. You can't fault Jack and Jones for leaving as they ended up at much better situation. Ceaser is putting up good numbers, but the grass isn't much greener at ODU. I wouldn't be surprised if he transfers again this year. Poor Blocker chose one of the few teams having more difficulty than UB.

UB travels to Athens to face the Bobcats. Currently UB is 14.5 point underdogs. Hoping Chatman can stay out of foul trouble this evening and UB can keep things closer.

Per stats (and likely it is obvious to everyone who has watched this team) - the three biggest shortcomings for this team are: offensive turnovers, offensive 3P shooting and opponent (defensive) 2P shooting. Here are the adjusted result showing UB at median for the MAC in those three categories (along with the impact). I am not sure how much the team can or will improve in these areas the remainder of the season - but should certainly be focus in practice. The other focus not reflected above - offensive execution when Chatman is not on the floor. Yesterday was the second straight game where Chatman sat significant minutes due to foul trouble. In both cases - a relatively close game became a double digit deficit in short order. Please note to determine the impact - every game result was adjusted to median as this helps to highlight impact of the result in each game.

Unfortunately this was spot on.

Two teams that have struggled offensively (and defensively) this year. Very similar stats in MAC play. If they contain Acuff who has struggled in MAC play, I think they have a shot. EMU's 3P defense is worst in MAC conference allowing 40% - maybe UB finally able to put together a good game from 3. The other x factor is that this team seems to play better on the road.

I also wonder, especially with this being a down year in the MAC, if you had Whitesell and most of last years team. Curtis Jones, Jack, Zid and Ceaser still playing alongside Chatman, and Adams, would Whitesell have been competing for a MAC championship. Certainly no way to know as you don't know who would have still transferred. I am not second guessing the decision and hoping this doesn't open up a debate, but I do wonder.

I had to look up the program rankings as it was a new one to me. Here are details from Kenpom. https://kenpom.com/blog/program-ratings/ Here is a view of the MAC - UB would rank 5th in the MAC. Let's hope that GH3 is able to turn things around.

I definitely like your continued optimism. Nothing wrong with that in my book. Two things are key if UB wants to come out with a win (a recurring must) - they need to keep turnovers down and they need to shoot better from 3 point. In addition to Adams continuing to play like last game, they need Sabol to regain his touch.

Statistically, UB limited Toledo to their lowest points per possession in MAC play, so credit to the defensive effort. Offense in general, and 3pt shooting in particular, continues to be a problem. There were individual signs for optimism, last night it was Adams. The team needs more consistent play as a team. Ball St. has been near the bottom defensively in MAC play, maybe that will be thea game to build some consistency on offense.

Hope you are on the edge of your seat for the second half.

Hey @UBinMD do I say my announcer line about first four minutes of the second half? The team played well for 20 minutes, can they find a way to play solid 40 minutes?

Yes exactly, corporate sponsors including any local businesses. Got to tap into as many sources as allowed. Is there anything preventing this?

Another road game against the second ranked team in the MAC. Toledo is coming off a 5 point win against Ball St. Current spread is 15.5 points. Toledo is once again among the best offensive teams in the MAC. They shot high percentage for both 2-pointers and 3-pointers. UB will need to find a way to slow Toledo down and to find a way to take advantage of a somewhat porous Toledo defense.

Seems like he is on a stacked team. Ishan Sharma going to UVA, Marial Akuentok, offers from Oregon and Seton Hall, and Jayden Roc Lee (offers include Alabama), to name a few. Same team as Isaac Jack.

Maybe this will be a stupid question / post, but I was thinking that an entity like ESPN has a vested interest in the MAC and other mid major conferences being competitive. I am thinking that if UB athletics continues at the bottom of D1 / FBS I really have no interest in subscribing to ESPN+ and they will lose subscribers. Now ESPN can't just fund the NIL of all the mid majors without having to raise their price / cut expenses elsewhere, but maybe there is an in between level that helps them continue to have quality games that attract viewers, keeping subscribers. Edit: a thought, maybe those ESPN+ promos change to spotlight top players in the conference, so instead of Derek Jeter you see Sy Chatman, Enrique Freeman, or Anderson Mirambeaux.

The don't like is definitely a concern. I don't have first hand knowledge, but I have read that to get a go to player in the portal, you are looking at 100k NIL.

I want to commend these young guys, they continue to play hard for the most part, in spite of the results. I know that isn't what the players or the fans ultimately want, which is wins, but it is nice to see the continued effort. Better effort defensively tonight, but poor 3pt shooting and turnovers did them in. On to the next game.

At the moment they have separation, I would say only Toledo may give them a challenge.

First four minutes of the second half will be crucial.

Ok I am on my meds - same chart based on home games - UB doesn't win against any D1 team!

Likely it means nothing, but this team has played much better on the road. Below is a plot of the point margin in each road game vs opponent rank. The fitted result would be a 10 point loss to Akron based on UB's road results this year. However, more likely, fall behind big and then narrow the margin down. Based on their road performance, this team would be favored vs any team ranked roughly 190 or higher. Maybe there is hope yet? Ok I will go take my meds now!

My prediction is more 85 - 65. I am hoping the team finds a way to defend better than the last two games. We have seen before where this team doesn't quit and they hadve made final score closer than it really was. I wouldn't be surprised - if final margin close to 10 points, still on the losing end.

Kent is struggling and I believe they have the two tallest players on their team out with injuries. Biggest player getting minutes is Chris Payton 6'7". They may slip a little this year.

I wonder what is going on with Adams, his stats are well below what he contributed last year (last year MAC - 52.3% eFG%, 36.7% from 3, 12.8 ppg). Is he still not 100% physically, are other teams defending him tighter or is he not playing with confidence. Hopefully he returns to last year's level, and produces at the level commensurate with his ability. This team needs him scoring more efficiently to be competitive.