Toledo opened as a 7 point road favorite.
When I have been doing these analyses over the past few weeks, it has provided me with more optimism then what I initially had for a UB victory for that game.
Alas, this one is going to be tough...
The Rockets are led by Dequan Finn, who is coming off a 6 TD passing / 1 TD rushing game this past Saturday vs. Kent St. Remember when the Bulls had Tyree Jackson and, sometimes, he'd just launch it down the field and let his athletic receivers make a play? That was a lot of what happened for Toledo this past weekend. UB fans are not going to like hearing the name Jerjuan Newton on Saturday as he is the primary playmaking WR. They also use their senior TE in the passing game (Jamal Turner), especially around the end zone (he has 5 TDs). Oh...and if that isn't enough, the QB (Finn) is Toledo's leading rusher (yards attempts). In other words, the UB defense is going to get a workout.
The previous week against NIU, the Toledo defense (well...one guy...Quinyon Mitchell) had 4 INTs, two of them were of the pick-6 variety. They beat NIU 52 - 32 and it wasn't even that close (NIU got a lot of garbage time yards and points). The week before that? Same story...the Rockets had a 31 - 3 halftime lead against CMU before cruising to a 38 - 17 win.
And it isn't as if Toledo are front runners...against Kent they were down 28 - 7 before getting in gear on offense and shutting down the Kent State offense.
Toledo is #1 in the MAC (all games) in average yards per play on defense...and that includes the 77 point / 763 yards against the Buckeyes! UB is 9th in that category.
The Bulls are better than we thought they were, especially after the lackluster Holy Cross loss. They have confidence after the four straight wins, especially moving the ball on offense. But this is going to be a big, big test. It is good UB is at home. UB has a week to develop a game plan on defense to try to slow down the Toledo attack. On offense, I think UB will be able to move the ball at times, but I don't think the Bulls come out on top if this is one of those typical MAC 40+ each team shootouts. They are going to need to generate some takeaways on defense and get some big plays on offense (and keep the chains moving with smart decision making from Snyder).
I suspect the line drifts up as the week progresses...so if you are a UB fan, you will probably get better odds later in the week.
Go Bulls!