I think the Bulls best case scenario is 5-2 in remaining league games. An 11-7 record might sneak in a fourth place finish, but right now Kent, and Ball St have the tie breaker in that they each beat the Bulls already. BG would have to go 2-5 to end up at 11-7 and currently has the tie breaker with the Bulls. N Illinois would have to finish 3-4 to end up at 11-7 and they too have the tie breaker.
Fortunately, the Bulls still have games against BG, Ball St, and Kent. Bulls also play Akron here. I think the worst case scenario is for the Bulls to finish 2-5 in remaining league games. That puts them at 8-10, but still probably hosting a game that they would need to win to get to Cleveland.
Bottom Line: Barring a miracle, the Bulls will be playing at AA on March 9 for a chance to play in Cleveland.