DocCas86

The areas I see as critical for the remainder of the MAC season are turnovers and 3P shooting. Here is snapshot of MAC results for these two the past three years - as well as target for the team including an estimate of points per game impact: I feel that they could hit the 3P% - as I have to think Adams (and hopefully Graham) start making 3s at a better clip. The turnovers rate is more critical to the team's success - hopefully, they can follow up last game with a few more lower turnover games. Edit: I decided to color code the top 4 teams (green) and bottom 4 teams in red. It was interesting that the 3P shooting percentage was more likely to predict the ranking in MAC (at least for the past 3 years).

Per pre game show on Tuesday, they said Kanye was taking time to deal with personal issues and the team was supportive. Was he on the sidelines yesterday? Yesterday was disappointing, as they did well in keeping turnovers down ( a season long problem). However, they faltered defensively, which they had been respectable lately. WMU shot 42% from three, well above WMU season average of 32% (most games in the 20s%), which would mean two or three fewer made threes, which was the difference between w and l.

A couple of thoughts, I would suggest that WMU is slightly better than their ranking. Why, Javonte Brown recently became eligible due to NCAA decision on two time transfers. At 7' he gives UB a bit of a matchup problem. He has averaged 17.0 ppg shooting nearly 70%. That said one key to me, can UB limit their turnovers. If they are around 11 or fewer for the game, they have a good shot at the w. In addition to Adams I am eager for Graham to start contributing on offense.

And BG is up on Akron, not quite halfway through the second half. I think the gap between the top four in the MAC and next four is not as big as in the past. Akron will probably end up winning, they just narrowed gap to three points while I wrote the post.

Brayden expected to visit soon.

UB definitely played a very tough out of conference schedule compared to MAC. Eight out of UB's eleven opponents would be top four in the MAC at this point according to Kenpom.

Last time I listen to pregame. Fulcher is playing, and scores

No Fulcher tonight, and Jones taking some personal time.

They just said on pregame, they expect Harding to play, so I may have been ....wrong. Supposedly some personnel news coming from GH after commercial break.

I am always right LOL. https://www.covers.com/sport/basketball/ncaab/teams/main/central-michigan-chippewas/injuries You are correct rebounding and defending the 3 could be a factor...but it may be about who turns it over less.

I certainly get the sentiment. Per rankings CMU is the second worst MAC team - and UB only gets one shot at them this season - hopefully they get the 'w'.

Tonight is MAC opener for UB / Halcovage. Rankings on Kenpom and Bartorvik have CMU ranked slightly better, with CMU favored between 4 and 7 points. However, current spread is only 1.5 points per ESPN. CMU looks to be without one of their better offensive players 6'10" Markus Harding which may explain the small overall spread. Both teams have struggled offensively, and turn the ball over often.

Tough to follow Enrique's post, it captures my disappointment perfectly. I was hopeful that the team had turned the corner on some early season problems (defense and turnovers), and just needed to shoot better and they would come away with a win. Well they shot better 50.9% eFG% - about the D1 average. However, they turned the ball over 17 times (1 in every 4 possessions). If they had only 12 turnovers (about the D1 average rate) they would have likely scored 6 more points. Combine that with leaving 3 or 4 points at the FT stripe - and that is the difference between a win and a loss. If they continue to average 3-5 more turnovers than their opponents - they start off each game with a 4-6 point deficit. They do not have much chance to counter that. I can't help but think back to this past summer and comments from the board that the team needed another ball handler. That may be the biggest miss so far of Halcovage's first team.

I always think that it is more important to look at a span of games, but this game does seem more important than most. A one to two possession win bolsters case that the team has improved slightly from early November, but still needs more improvement. It would be nice if they can win a bit more comfortably, as this will likely mean they have had a better shooting night along with the improved ball handling and defense of recent games. As for a loss, I personally don't want to dwell on that possibility 🙂.

Probably less than we'd like. For now, hoping he sticks to it.

https://www.maxpreps.com/m/news/A45bNtgfv0CuR0Xk8hqzUg/coolidge-triumphant-thanks-to-a-strong-effort-from-quintin-cooper.htm Quintin Cooper scores 35 in latest game and has been in double figures fo 9 straight games. https://www.maxpreps.com/dc/washington/coolidge-colts/athletes/quintin-cooper/?careerid=8cd46vgqko955 According to this he is scoring 29 points per game.

I think there is reason to have hope for improved shooting during MAC play. First, Adams is currently shooting 24.5% from 3, when he shot 35.5% last year. Second, adding Graham, who shot 42.6% last year, will settle in and could shoot better than 30%. Last, Sabol, I think potential he becomes a bit more consistent as he gains experience. As for all else being equal, that has not been the case as the TO% and the team defense has generally improved as of late. A possible way to look at potential (get perspective) is based on barttorvik game score. Here is chart of that. As you can see there is an upward trend indicative of improvement over first 11 games (impossible to get worse!). But to put things in perspective, a game score of 20 corresponds to a rank of about 315, a game score of 30, a rank of 270, and score of 40, a rank of 215. Now these are merely observed stats, and as @MuchMany correctly pointed out, some of the game scores JMU, Butler and Richmond may be inflated due to late game runs due to the opponent letting up. So what does this mean? At a minimum, it gives a perspective as to the needed improvement to be on par with likes of MOH (33) and Ball St (28). If they play more like the recent games, with improved shooting, they might have a shot to compete for 7th / 8th in MAC. The keys to the if...continued better ball control, team defense and shooting better overall. The next four games will definitely provide perspective.

Both our perspectives have merit, I just waste more time coming up with my thoughts. I am not aware of easy source for stats prior to garbage time. Things would definitely look a lot worse. In the recent games I scanned the gamecast, UB was competitive to a point and then went on a rather lengthy drought where the bulk of bad shooting stats come from. The timing of when that starts and length varies from game to game. Even if runs at the end of games is a function of the opponent letting up, I give the team props for continuing to play hard. For now I am hoping that Adams return, Graham playing more to his Mo St stats, Sabol being more consistent and Chapman being a little more efficient, helps them improve shooting. Hoping we have some more optimism after next four games.

Why things are trending a slightly more optimistic for me - at the beginning of the season - the team struggled on offense, both shooting percentages and turnover percentages and on defense - allowing opponents a very high shooting percentages This was especially the case in the Hofstra and Iona outcomes. The turnover rate and opponent eFG% has improved recently to more average D1 levels - but more consistency is needed and if possible improvement. The one area that has continued to plague the team is poor shooting. If this can be sorted out (a big if perhaps), then prospects will improve for MAC. As for comment about late game runs to make end margin closer - likely some of this is due to opponents taking their 'foot off the gas', but the press that UB employed late in second half gave Richmond trouble - so some of the credit should go to UB for fighting back to make the game close. Lastly the Niagara game is a good yardstick for (if / how) the team has progressed. Niagara / FDU are roughly similar quality - a win would be evidence of some progress. In addition, opening MAC play @CMU, WMU and MOH - will give a good gauge of expectations for the MAC regular season. It will be interesting to see where this team stands on 1/10/2024.

It is not 100% clear where team goes from here, but I put together a few charts using D1 only games to try to gauge UB performance in each game vs season to date performance of their opponent's other games. Turnover Rate This is percent of possessions with a turnover. The team has settled in to be about the median in terms of turnover rate, after early season struggles against Hofstra and Iona. There is still room for improvement, but the recent trend has been favorable. Offensive Rebounding Rate This has been about the median for most of the season. Offense eFG% As mentioned in almost every thread - UB shooting needs to improve. Defense eFG% The Hofstra and Iona games stand out (in a bad way). Overall, defensive performance has been about the median. I will stop with these four. I have other stats from BT that I could produce charts. I will gauge interest and determine if other charts worth creating.

A thought...I know this is just one game, but Richmond is about on par with the best the MAC has to offer, and UB lost by only six points on the road. I think we would all take that result. I know you have to take in the whole season, but this team has been slowly improving. Need to, as others have said, figure out the offense. Niagara would be a good place to start.

The positives winning the turnover (against a team that does not turn it over) and offensive rebounding battle, plus playing hard the entire game. As other posters have stated, need to improve shot selection and make a few more shots and a few games will go their way. First game back for Adams, he looked ok, had a few forced shots. As for Graham, hoping a combination of rust and jitters. Let's hope they return to Alumni and pick up a win against Niagara.

Adams is starting!

Not sure how much to expect from Graham first game out, but hopefully he shows some promise. It will be interesting to see how rotation changes. Oh and 10 to 35 points seems wide enough to capture actual result