Agree with what you are saying.
I would say that regular season wins would be correlated to MAC tourney prospects, so I agree with your point of 17 win team winning MAC, possible but not the most likely.
As for tournament being a crapshoot, I looked at last 20 years of semifinal results. The top ranked of the remaining semifinal teams won only 50% of time. So top seed in current format (I.e. win 3 games) would proabably have 25-35% chance of winning tournament. Note I focused only on semifinals, because changing format of tournament makes it impossible to compare across years.
So in my opinion, you need to consider the whole season and not judge solely based on 3 games in Cleveland. That said, I want a championship.