UB92 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) They are 1-1 now. The next game is against BSU on the 10th. Edited January 6 by UB92 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyjee Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The painful thing is there's not an upcoming game in conference where I can point to it on the calendar and say "this one is definitely a win". Let's see how we respond at home vs a middle of the pack MAC team in Miami OH. Gotta go back to the 20-21 season to find a MAC team without at least 4 wins. Are we that bad? I hope not. Chalk me up for more than 4 but no more than 6 but ask me again Tuesday around 9pm... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluebird96 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Only game UB is currently projected to have better than 50% chance to win the rest of the season is home vs EMU. Maybe we could beat M-OH, BSU, and NIU at home and steal another game on the road somewhere. So the best I could realistically see the Bulls doing is 6-12 but I’m sticking with 3-15 as more likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBulls99 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Bluebird96 said: Only game UB is currently projected to have better than 50% chance to win the rest of the season is home vs EMU. Maybe we could beat M-OH, BSU, and NIU at home and steal another game on the road somewhere. So the best I could realistically see the Bulls doing is 6-12 but I’m sticking with 3-15 as more likely. EMU just knocked off Kent State. Any given day I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UBinMD Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 18 hours ago, Bluebird96 said: Only game UB is currently projected to have better than 50% chance to win the rest of the season is home vs EMU. Maybe we could beat M-OH, BSU, and NIU at home and steal another game on the road somewhere. So the best I could realistically see the Bulls doing is 6-12 but I’m sticking with 3-15 as more likely. I’m not convinced we are better at home Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocCas86 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) The areas I see as critical for the remainder of the MAC season are turnovers and 3P shooting. Here is snapshot of MAC results for these two the past three years - as well as target for the team including an estimate of points per game impact: I feel that they could hit the 3P% - as I have to think Adams (and hopefully Graham) start making 3s at a better clip. The turnovers rate is more critical to the team's success - hopefully, they can follow up last game with a few more lower turnover games. Edit: I decided to color code the top 4 teams (green) and bottom 4 teams in red. It was interesting that the 3P shooting percentage was more likely to predict the ranking in MAC (at least for the past 3 years). Edited January 8 by DocCas86 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UB92 Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 I am not sure how I saw that the next game was BSU tomorrow. it is not. it is at home versus Miami tonight. and we are 1.5 pt favorites. we were 2.5 point favorites on open. This line could move more leading up to game time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C1ubP1fanaticM7 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/7/2024 at 2:43 PM, UBinMD said: I’m not convinced we are better at home Game results would support your lack of conviction. I calculated a spread for each game, by finding the difference in AdjEM’s and multiplying it by the average pace of the two teams. Based off of this, we have underperformed by an average of 3.33 points per home game. Underperforming in all but the game against St. Bonaventure, where we were projected to lose by 16 and lost by 15. Now, I will say that the last two home games have been better, underperforming by an average of 2 points per game. Onto the road, we have actually over-performed in each of the four games by an average of 7.75 points per game. I know it’s a small sample size, so it may mean nothing. But it’s interesting to see that they do appear to play better on the road. Could it be that they don’t like playing in front of a crowd, where the loudest moments of the game are when free t-shirts are being passed out? 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UBinMD Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, C1ubP1fanaticM7 said: Game results would support your lack of conviction. I calculated a spread for each game, by finding the difference in AdjEM’s and multiplying it by the average pace of the two teams. Based off of this, we have underperformed by an average of 3.33 points per home game. Underperforming in all but the game against St. Bonaventure, where we were projected to lose by 16 and lost by 15. Now, I will say that the last two home games have been better, underperforming by an average of 2 points per game. Onto the road, we have actually over-performed in each of the four games by an average of 7.75 points per game. I know it’s a small sample size, so it may mean nothing. But it’s interesting to see that they do appear to play better on the road. Could it be that they don’t like playing in front of a crowd, where the loudest moments of the game are when free t-shirts are being passed out? 😂 Good stats to back up my gut feeling. I was physically present for the Niagara game and the crowd was pretty good and I didn't see very much purple in the crowd. I am still hopefully we will find enough success in the MAC to make it to Cleveland. This conference is not a gauntlet by any means. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluebird96 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 12 hours ago, UB92 said: I am not sure how I saw that the next game was BSU tomorrow. You must have been looking at the women’s schedule. They play Ball State tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UB92 Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 25 minutes ago, Bluebird96 said: You must have been looking at the women’s schedule. They play Ball State tomorrow I am not sure MBB would be Ball State WBB at this point... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skrabukes Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 (edited) On 1/9/2024 at 8:40 PM, UB92 said: I am not sure MBB would be Ball State WBB at this point... Maybe Becky will punch that 🤡 coach of theirs this time. Edited January 29 by skrabukes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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