UB's NCAA NET Rating: 360!

[promotherobot]

Might be too high.

[Chet]

The metrics match my own assessment. 

[Tee4three]

The wins will start coming, I think they have figured out a rotation that will work. Need Adams back so that a couple of the players that need more time to develop on the bench and in practice can do so without the pressure of the games 

[Chet]

7 minutes ago, Tee4three said:

The wins will start coming, I think they have figured out a rotation that will work. Need Adams back so that a couple of the players that need more time to develop on the bench and in practice can do so without the pressure of the games 

Your optimism is awesome!

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

 

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

KenPom projects Buffalo to go 6-24 with the Niagara game being the only game left on their schedule in which UB is favored. I thought the Bulls would win 10-12 games prior to the season but it's going to be an uphill climb to reach double digits.

[MuchMany]

Ah yes, this needed its own thread, the other two weren't enough. 

[squire17]

It’s all voodoo. No way is this team better than only 2 DI teams. I don’t know how many wins the Bulls will get, but I expect them to learn, improve, and compete in every game. Go Bulls!

[DocCas86]

2 hours ago, squire17 said:

It’s all voodoo. No way is this team better than only 2 DI teams. I don’t know how many wins the Bulls will get, but I expect them to learn, improve, and compete in every game. Go Bulls!

I was going to point out that there are some odd rankings in the initial net rank, like NIU being the highest rated MAC team, or Princeton being better than UConn, but I don't think it changes the perspective on UB significantly.  The bottom line will be how / if this team progresses from here.  I will reserve judgment for the end of this year.

[Bluebird96]

4 hours ago, Big 4 Hoops Blogger said:

KenPom projects Buffalo to go 6-24 with the Niagara game being the only game left on their schedule in which UB is favored. I thought the Bulls would win 10-12 games prior to the season but it's going to be an uphill climb to reach double digits.

Splitting hairs here, but adding up those projected W’s and L’s from KenPom comes out to a 2-28 record, no?  If UB is only favored in 1 game the rest of the way, it would take a lot of upsets to get to 6 wins.  As with most everyone on this board, I hope they’re dead wrong and Bulls find a way to right the ship come MAC play if not sooner

Edited December 5, 2023 by Bluebird96

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

17 minutes ago, Bluebird96 said:

Splitting hairs here, but adding up those projected W’s and L’s from KenPom comes out to a 2-28 record, no?  If UB is only favored in 1 game the rest of the way, it would take a lot of upsets to get to 6 wins.  As with most everyone on this board, I hope they’re dead wrong and Bulls find a way to right the ship come MAC play if not sooner

KenPom doesn't project records strictly off of who's favored in each individual game. They go based off the probabilities over the course of the season, factoring in that you'll win some games you're an underdog in percentage wise and lose some that you're expected to win.

That's how they arrive at UB having a 6-24 record despite only being favored in one of their remaining games at the current moment.

Edited December 5, 2023 by Big 4 Hoops Blogger

[promotherobot]

On 12/4/2023 at 7:13 PM, MuchMany said:

Ah yes, this needed its own thread, the other two weren't enough. 

I didn't realize this was posted in 2 other threads, and this site doesn't give you the option to delete. That's why.

[Ubbulls84]

On 12/4/2023 at 5:37 PM, Tee4three said:

The wins will start coming, I think they have figured out a rotation that will work. Need Adams back so that a couple of the players that need more time to develop on the bench and in practice can do so without the pressure of the games 

Wish I can be as optimistic as you. I don’t see the wins coming like you do. This team just doesn’t have the talent to win right now. Sure do I think they will win a couple games the rest of the year, sure. But going 5-25 is still a terrible year. Halcovage will need to get some experienced transfers next year in the portal to start really turning things back around and get more skill players on the court. That’s really the only way you turn things around these days with the portal.

Edited December 6, 2023 by Ubbulls84

[yussi1870]

On 12/4/2023 at 6:53 PM, Big 4 Hoops Blogger said:

 

He’s comparing NET to AP. Not sure what our NET was that year but wasn’t as high as 14

[DocCas86]

52 minutes ago, yussi1870 said:

He’s comparing NET to AP. Not sure what our NET was that year but wasn’t as high as 14

I did not research the highest UB net ranking was - but here are rankings from Massey Composite for end of year.

Final net rank was 18, with many sites in upper teens to upper twenties.  However, the 2018-19 UB team is a rare exception for any MAC team, so unfair to compare to that level.  A more reasonable measure of the gap is comparison to typical rankings for a top MAC team, 80+/-.  Also, the initial net rank is a bit erratic - as I pointed out Princeton was ranked higher than UConn, NIU was top MAC team.  The majority of sites have UB in 340 range which seems fair given play so far.  There definitely is a ways to go to get back to the top of the MAC, but that was expected in year one.  The question remains will the team develop over the course of the year (they have shown some progress from the Hofstra and Iona games) and will they have a solid core that they can add a few good players so that they are close to the top of the MAC next season.

A question I pose - at this point, what would you put the odds that Bowling Green will have a better ranking next year than UB?  Bowling Green Massey composite is 210 and UB is 346.  Would it be nicer to see a few more wins and better play - but in long run - it may not matter.

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

5 hours ago, yussi1870 said:

He’s comparing NET to AP. Not sure what our NET was that year but wasn’t as high as 14

That’s me and yes, that’s the comparison I was making in the video.

Btw, is it possible to change usernames here so I can go under my actual name? 😂 

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

4 hours ago, DocCas86 said:

I did not research the highest UB net ranking was - but here are rankings from Massey Composite for end of year.

Final net rank was 18, with many sites in upper teens to upper twenties.  However, the 2018-19 UB team is a rare exception for any MAC team, so unfair to compare to that level.  A more reasonable measure of the gap is comparison to typical rankings for a top MAC team, 80+/-.  Also, the initial net rank is a bit erratic - as I pointed out Princeton was ranked higher than UConn, NIU was top MAC team.  The majority of sites have UB in 340 range which seems fair given play so far.  There definitely is a ways to go to get back to the top of the MAC, but that was expected in year one.  The question remains will the team develop over the course of the year (they have shown some progress from the Hofstra and Iona games) and will they have a solid core that they can add a few good players so that they are close to the top of the MAC next season.

A question I pose - at this point, what would you put the odds that Bowling Green will have a better ranking next year than UB?  Bowling Green Massey composite is 210 and UB is 346.  Would it be nicer to see a few more wins and better play - but in long run - it may not matter.

Agree with all of this. It’s obviously not fair to expect UB to be around where they were during the 2018-19 season. That was a historic, once in a generation type season that I was hoping they’d use to continue building the program but it wasn’t meant to be.

A more reasonable expectation would’ve been for them to be in the top 90-120 conversation. I still think with the right coach and proper investment, they could’ve remained in the 60-90 range for a few more seasons but it obviously didn’t play out that way.

The original point of the video was to simply show that this program has the ability to be a special, top end mid major that can win tournament games and has fallen down to one of the bottom teams in college basketball.

Will they stay near the cellar? I don’t think so but that’s up to Halcovage and how he does turning things around. We’ll need to be patient.

[UB Horns Up]

I wonder as a Canisius alum if Griffs basketball should lower itself to play UB Bulls basketball anymore. The Griffs would be better off from a rankings standpoint playing like minded basketball programs like St Bonaventure home and home. Just kidding but remember when some UB alums got to full of themselves and wanted to drop Canisius and Niagara for such SUNY powerhouses Albany and Stony Brook. Just remember mid majors have up and down years in their basketball programs when the shoe is on the other foot where Canisius and Niagara basketball is struggling in my opinion. UB Horns Up! Go Bulls! Let’s Go Buffalo 

[DocCas86]

17 hours ago, Big 4 Hoops Blogger said:

Agree with all of this. It’s obviously not fair to expect UB to be around where they were during the 2018-19 season. That was a historic, once in a generation type season that I was hoping they’d use to continue building the program but it wasn’t meant to be.

A more reasonable expectation would’ve been for them to be in the top 90-120 conversation. I still think with the right coach and proper investment, they could’ve remained in the 60-90 range for a few more seasons but it obviously didn’t play out that way.

The original point of the video was to simply show that this program has the ability to be a special, top end mid major that can win tournament games and has fallen down to one of the bottom teams in college basketball.

Will they stay near the cellar? I don’t think so but that’s up to Halcovage and how he does turning things around. We’ll need to be patient.

I appreciate your perspective.  With respect to your statement '...with the right coach and proper investment, they could’ve remained in the 60-90 range...'.  This is certainly a lot easier said than done.  While overall, I agree that it was time to move on from Whitesell, the choice initially had some merit, keep team together, an experienced coach (albeit an average past record).  The team was even ranked in your desired range in his second year (77), but they were stopped short by a hot Ohio team led by Preston.   My point is not to reopen discussion about the choice, as it proved not to work out, but to emphasize it is not a simple task to pick the right coach.  There was certainly some carryover from the success of Oats into Whitesell years, but in the end Whitesell was not able to capitalize.

To me the sweet spot of a MAC coach is one who keeps the team successful but stays put, Groce (Kenpom ranks between 80-110)?  It will be interesting to see if Groce stay put.  I would have said Kowalczyk but he has not delivered a MAC championship but has delivered rankings in 60-90 range.  I struggle to see a scenario where you have a carousel of coaches and you remain consistently competitive. 

As for rankings, this team has had two very bad games which justify the net rank of 360, and two decent losses (JMU and Butler) that suggest a better ranking.  Overall, I do think their true ranking is slightly higher, ~330.  I think if the team brings effort on defense they will be competitive in more games and their rank will improve.  As you say, it is in Halcovage's and the team's hands how much the rank changes from here.   I wish them success in that effort.

Edited December 8, 2023 by DocCas86

[BrooklynBull]

27 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

MAC coach is one who keeps the team successful but stays put, Groce

Groce did not stay put.  He was at Ohio and went to Illinois after a run to the Sweet 16.  He had less success at Illinois and then was out. a  He is now at Akron.  He may stay now because he likes the less pressure in the MAC than in the Big Ten.  I think Coach Jack would agree with that perspective.

Edited December 8, 2023 by BrooklynBull

[DocCas86]

1 hour ago, BrooklynBull said:

Groce did not stay put.  He was at Ohio and went to Illinois after a run to the Sweet 16.  He had less success at Illinois and then was out. a  He is now at Akron.  He may stay now because he likes the less pressure in the MAC than in the Big Ten.  I think Coach Jack would agree with that perspective.

I am not concerned about Groce's motivation for staying now when he didn't previously at Ohio.   I am merely stating that if you can find a coach that provides you with some level success and is willing to stay at given level - that is a better path to longer success than having continuing succession of coaches.  Neither scenario is easy to pull off.

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

3 hours ago, DocCas86 said:

I appreciate your perspective.  With respect to your statement '...with the right coach and proper investment, they could’ve remained in the 60-90 range...'.  This is certainly a lot easier said than done.  While overall, I agree that it was time to move on from Whitesell, the choice initially had some merit, keep team together, an experienced coach (albeit an average past record).  The team was even ranked in your desired range in his second year (77), but they were stopped short by a hot Ohio team led by Preston.   My point is not to reopen discussion about the choice, as it proved not to work out, but to emphasize it is not a simple task to pick the right coach.  There was certainly some carryover from the success of Oats into Whitesell years, but in the end Whitesell was not able to capitalize.

To me the sweet spot of a MAC coach is one who keeps the team successful but stays put, Groce (Kenpom ranks between 80-110)?  It will be interesting to see if Groce stay put.  I would have said Kowalczyk but he has not delivered a MAC championship but has delivered rankings in 60-90 range.  I struggle to see a scenario where you have a carousel of coaches and you remain consistently competitive. 

As for rankings, this team has had two very bad games which justify the net rank of 360, and two decent losses (JMU and Butler) that suggest a better ranking.  Overall, I do think their true ranking is slightly higher, ~330.  I think if the team brings effort on defense they will be competitive in more games and their rank will improve.  As you say, it is in Halcovage's and the team's hands how much the rank changes from here.   I wish them success in that effort.

I agree with the majority of your post. I was originally going to say the 70-100 range but edited it at the last second. As you stated, they really weren’t far off from that range during the early Whitesell years which is why I think it was fair to want a little bit more from the program even if it’s not an easy standard for MAC schools to achieve.

Toledo is such an interesting program. Consistently good regular seasons under Coach K but no NCAA Tournaments to show for it. Ohio has kinda been the opposite the last 15 years where they’re normally pretty good but never great but get hot in Cleveland every once in a while.

I think more fans would take the postseason success over the regular season consistency. The nice part of the Oats years was that Buffalo had both.

[Tee4three]

I think in buffalo you can get the top 75 year in year out rankings but you need a coach that's willing to stay or really wants to build something

Toledo is a good example of this the coach has stayed and the program has really started to take off with their recruiting 

I think UB has a good coach in George halcovage, just starting slower than many want and or expected

[DocCas86]

2 hours ago, Big 4 Hoops Blogger said:

I agree with the majority of your post. I was originally going to say the 70-100 range but edited it at the last second. As you stated, they really weren’t far off from that range during the early Whitesell years which is why I think it was fair to want a little bit more from the program even if it’s not an easy standard for MAC schools to achieve.

Toledo is such an interesting program. Consistently good regular seasons under Coach K but no NCAA Tournaments to show for it. Ohio has kinda been the opposite the last 15 years where they’re normally pretty good but never great but get hot in Cleveland every once in a while.

I think more fans would take the postseason success over the regular season consistency. The nice part of the Oats years was that Buffalo had both.

Good contrast of Toledo and Ohio.  I know I am going to sound like a broken record, but I attribute this to defense.  Since 2012, if you compare, year in and year out Toledo has been a better offensive team, but Ohio is generally a better defensive team.  I feel like less likely in a pressure situation that you are going to let up on defense, but possible to have a bad offensive day despite playing hard. 

Here is some additional information:

 

[Tee4three]

For reference ub's bartorvik ranking in the last 3 games is 299 (11/26/23 - 12/8/23) so moving in the right direction