At Richmond 12/21 7pm

[squire17]

This is starting to slip away from the Bulls. Have to get hot from 3 to get back in it and win it.

[squire17]

Bulls hanging tough. Need a couple of shots and some breaks.

[Tee4three]

Nice 14-1 run to get within 7 with the ball

Run a good set out of the time out and let's get within 2 possessions 

[DaBulls99]

Good first half. Was hoping for more from Graham but first one back. That’s all I got. 

[Tee4three]

Better that's for sure

Gotta figure out the offense, way too many forced or bad shots and too much confusion

 

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

With tonight's loss, Buffalo drops to 1-10 on the season, matching their worst record through 11 games since returning to Division 1 under Dan Bazzani in 1991-92.

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

Thought UB battled hard tonight. Their offense is obviously a work in progress but it was nice to have Isaiah Adams back in the lineup. They ended the game on a 20-6 run to make it somewhat close in the final minutes. Graham looks really raw for a former 4 star recruit. Overall, one of the better games they've played this season.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Big 4 Hoops Blogger

[Bluebird96]

Missed most of the 2nd half so was pleasantly surprised to see UB hung in there and only lost by 6.  I’m a broken record, but if Bulls shot even 30% from 3 instead of 19% they would’ve won handily.  If they could manage to get hot and shoot 40% a few times like we were used to seeing in the golden years, they could do some damage.

Seeing signs of improvement, especially in the turnover department with only 6 for the game. On to the next

Edited December 22, 2023 by Bluebird96

[DocCas86]

The positives winning the turnover (against a team that does not turn it over) and offensive rebounding battle, plus playing hard the entire game.  As other posters have stated, need to improve shot selection and make a few more shots and a few games will go their way.  

First game back for Adams, he looked ok, had a few forced shots.  As for Graham, hoping a combination of rust and jitters.

Let's hope they return to Alumni and pick up a win against Niagara.

[DaBulls99]

We gotta take the ball to the basket more. A lot more. I know we don’t have a ton of size but at least try to draw a foul. That will improve our outside game/shot selection as well. 

[Bluebird96]

8 minutes ago, DaBulls99 said:

We gotta take the ball to the basket more. A lot more. I know we don’t have a ton of size but at least try to draw a foul. That will improve our outside game/shot selection as well. 

Couldn’t agree more.  You don’t want to see a team take more 3’s than 2’s no matter how good they shoot, but especially not when you miss 30 of them like Bulls did tonight.

Really like Boldin and would’ve liked to see more from him tonight than just 5 shots from the field including only 1 from inside the arc.  He seems more of a physical player that you’d expect to get to the line a lot, but so far not the case shooting just 11/18 FTs (61%) thru 11 games.

 

 

[DocCas86]

A thought...I know this is just one game, but Richmond is about on par with the best the MAC has to offer, and UB lost by only six points on the road.  I think we would all take that result.

I know you have to take in the whole season, but this team has been slowly improving.   Need to, as others have said, figure out the offense.  Niagara would be a good place to start.

 

[xDerekRx]

5 hours ago, Big 4 Hoops Blogger said:

With tonight's loss, Buffalo drops to 1-10 on the season, matching their worst record through 11 games since returning to Division 1 under Dan Bazzani in 1991-92.

Great one of those pointless ESPN type stats the media loves to put out for no reason. Literally service no purpose but thanks.

They also won 4-5 games total in the early Battle Reggie startup days before they quickly turned it around with generally the same roster (granted the battle injury was depressing that season). It's all relative. Has nothing to do with this team.

 

[xDerekRx]

I will say to start this game I enjoyed the approach. They worked hard on defense with good intensity and on offense every player has the greenlight to shoot a three within 5 seconds.

Seemed fun for a bit but after a while they missed so many of those 3s so badly, Im shocked we went 7-37 from 3. Felt like 2-50 honestly.

That being said why not try something.

Truth is the end of the game showed they need a bit more balance in the approach. Let the skill guys get the bucket in between the 3 pt attempts. 

I don't hate the idea of us trying to become a run and gun team but you gotta make the shots look better. 

I figured sabol would be the most up for this style but he was the most hesitant during the early barrage and seemed to always pass it off.

All that being said you can see GH experimenting still with different styles but if the effort and hustle remain at this level for the remainder of the season they'll win some games for sure.

[xDerekRx]

Lastly I'll add I have a weird excitement for the Niagara game. And it has nothing to do with the local rivalry that used to be somewhat fun. 

Mostly because it's a 3-9 team, our last chance to get an OOC win on the record in 2023. 

We've been pretty much playing either very good or solid teams the entire schedule. 

It's a must win game even though this year isn't about the Ws, but it's just an early season benchmark. If they are improving as it seems, it would be great to see them really show out.

[MuchMany]

Appreciate the attempts at positivity but...

We've trailed by ~20 points at some point in 8/10 D1 games, all but Louisiana and FDU. I've never even heard of something like that. We haven't had a lead in the second half against any of the 10 D1 teams we've played. That is UNBELIEVABLE. Skimming the game flow charts, I don't think we've had a lead past the ten minute mark of the first half. We've pulled some games close late when the opponent has already let up, making scores look closer than they really were.

Agree that Niagara feels like a could/should win game. The MAC schedule should present even better opportunities for wins compared to the decent schedule we've faced of 50-200 ranked teams. But nonetheless it is a commentary on where we are at the moment when we're combing the schedule looking for a single solitary win.

Kudos to the guys and staff for maintaining the effort level in the face of some harrowing results so far. 

[DocCas86]

1 hour ago, MuchMany said:

Appreciate the attempts at positivity but...

We've trailed by ~20 points at some point in 8/10 D1 games, all but Louisiana and FDU. I've never even heard of something like that. We haven't had a lead in the second half against any of the 10 D1 teams we've played. That is UNBELIEVABLE. Skimming the game flow charts, I don't think we've had a lead past the ten minute mark of the first half. We've pulled some games close late when the opponent has already let up, making scores look closer than they really were.

Agree that Niagara feels like a could/should win game. The MAC schedule should present even better opportunities for wins compared to the decent schedule we've faced of 50-200 ranked teams. But nonetheless it is a commentary on where we are at the moment when we're combing the schedule looking for a single solitary win.

Kudos to the guys and staff for maintaining the effort level in the face of some harrowing results so far. 

Why things are trending a slightly more optimistic for me - at the beginning of the season - the team struggled on offense, both shooting percentages and turnover percentages and on defense - allowing opponents a very high shooting percentages  This was especially the case in the Hofstra and Iona outcomes.  The turnover rate and opponent eFG% has improved recently to more average D1 levels - but more consistency is needed and if possible improvement.  The one area that has continued to plague the team is poor shooting.   If this can be sorted out (a big if perhaps), then prospects will improve for MAC. 

As for comment about late game runs to make end margin closer - likely some of this is due to opponents taking their 'foot off the gas', but  the press that UB employed late in second half gave Richmond trouble - so some of the credit should go to UB for fighting back to make the game close.

Lastly the Niagara game is a good yardstick for (if / how) the team has progressed.  Niagara / FDU are roughly similar quality - a win would be evidence of some progress.    In addition, opening MAC play @CMU, WMU and MOH - will give a good gauge of expectations for the MAC regular season.  It will be interesting to see where this team stands on 1/10/2024.

[MuchMany]

3 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

Why things are trending a slightly more optimistic for me - at the beginning of the season - the team struggled on offense, both shooting percentages and turnover percentages and on defense - allowing opponents a very high shooting percentages  This was especially the case in the Hofstra and Iona outcomes.  The turnover rate and opponent eFG% has improved recently to more average D1 levels - but more consistency is needed and if possible improvement.  The one area that has continued to plague the team is poor shooting.   If this can be sorted out (a big if perhaps), then prospects will improve for MAC. 

As for comment about late game runs to make end margin closer - likely some of this is due to opponents taking their 'foot off the gas', but  the press that UB employed late in second half gave Richmond trouble - so some of the credit should go to UB for fighting back to make the game close.

Lastly the Niagara game is a good yardstick for (if / how) the team has progressed.  Niagara / FDU are roughly similar quality - a win would be evidence of some progress.    In addition, opening MAC play @CMU, WMU and MOH - will give a good gauge of expectations for the MAC regular season.  It will be interesting to see where this team stands on 1/10/2024.

Great posts as usual, in this and the other thread. Admittedly, my analysis is more shallow than yours. I can't quite get up the interest to dive deeper on this team, mostly due to the simple facts I posted. Not leading for a single possession past the first quarter of a single game is pretty damning evidence of an uncompetitive team. 

Not trying to heap work on you, but I'm curious how the stats you're working with would look up until the largest lead of the game, or some other way to exclude what I regard as garbage time.

[DocCas86]

52 minutes ago, MuchMany said:

Great posts as usual, in this and the other thread. Admittedly, my analysis is more shallow than yours. I can't quite get up the interest to dive deeper on this team, mostly due to the simple facts I posted. Not leading for a single possession past the first quarter of a single game is pretty damning evidence of an uncompetitive team. 

Not trying to heap work on you, but I'm curious how the stats you're working with would look up until the largest lead of the game, or some other way to exclude what I regard as garbage time.

Both our perspectives have merit, I just waste more time coming up with my thoughts.  I am not aware of easy source for stats prior to garbage time.  Things would definitely look a lot worse.  In the recent games I scanned the gamecast, UB was competitive to a point and then went on a rather lengthy drought where the bulk of bad shooting stats come from. The timing of when that starts and length varies from game to game. Even if runs at the end of games is a function of the opponent letting up, I give the team props for continuing to play hard.

For now I am hoping that Adams return, Graham playing more to his Mo St stats, Sabol being more consistent and Chapman being a little more efficient, helps them improve shooting.   Hoping we have some more optimism after next four games.

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

15 hours ago, xDerekRx said:

Great one of those pointless ESPN type stats the media loves to put out for no reason. Literally service no purpose but thanks.

They also won 4-5 games total in the early Battle Reggie startup days before they quickly turned it around with generally the same roster (granted the battle injury was depressing that season). It's all relative. Has nothing to do with this team.

 

It’s a fact that puts their current start into perspective. That’s it. No reason to overthink it.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Big 4 Hoops Blogger

[Bluebird96]

7 hours ago, DocCas86 said:

 The one area that has continued to plague the team is poor shooting.   If this can be sorted out (a big if perhaps), then prospects will improve for MAC. 

I’m afraid after 11 games, there’s enough evidence to conclude this year’s team just isn’t very good at shooting the 3.  Despite the team’s generally more consistent showing over the past few games, the 3P shooting has actually declined sharply over the last 4 games (total of 20/114, 17.5%), dragging the season 3P% down to 24.9%.  Even those under-achieving JW teams shot in the low 30’s.

As much as we’d all like to see a turn-around in this one aspect of the team’s performance, even if UB had managed to shoot 35% from 3 in each of the first 11 games, with everything else being equal the only different outcomes would be wins in the last 2 games vs WKU and Richmond.  And, the games vs USA, SBU and Butler would have been much closer but still losses.  So, maybe we’d be looking at 3-8 instead of 1-10…but what it tells me is there’s still much improvement needed in most other aspects of the game.  Starting with Niagara and leading into the MAC schedule.  Nowhere to go but up! 🤘

[Sportsfan]

44 minutes ago, Bluebird96 said:

I’m afraid after 11 games, there’s enough evidence to conclude this year’s team just isn’t very good at shooting the 3.  Despite the team’s generally more consistent showing over the past few games, the 3P shooting has actually declined sharply over the last 4 games (total of 20/114, 17.5%), dragging the season 3P% down to 24.9%.  Even those under-achieving JW teams shot in the low 30’s.

As much as we’d all like to see a turn-around in this one aspect of the team’s performance, even if UB had managed to shoot 35% from 3 in each of the first 11 games, with everything else being equal the only different outcomes would be wins in the last 2 games vs WKU and Richmond.  And, the games vs USA, SBU and Butler would have been much closer but still losses.  So, maybe we’d be looking at 3-8 instead of 1-10…but what it tells me is there’s still much improvement needed in most other aspects of the game.  Starting with Niagara and leading into the MAC schedule.  Nowhere to go but up! 🤘

Another option is that they are just not very good shooters and this is really what to expect the balance of the year.

Seems recruiting athletic players doesn't translate to good basketball players for UB over the past few years. 

Maybe a new recruiting strategy should be to recruit basketball players first, and athletisim second. 

[Blue03]

49 minutes ago, Bluebird96 said:

I’m afraid after 11 games, there’s enough evidence to conclude this year’s team just isn’t very good at shooting the 3

Yes but I believe this reinforces the “lost year, not lost program” narrative. 3 point percentage can be improved in an offseason/new recruits. What’s important is they’re looking better apart from that. Still have hope for the future. Go bulls

[DocCas86]

I think there is reason to have hope for improved shooting during MAC play.

First,  Adams is currently shooting 24.5% from 3, when he shot 35.5% last year.  Second, adding Graham, who shot 42.6% last year, will settle in and could shoot better than 30%.  Last, Sabol, I think potential he becomes a bit more consistent as he gains experience.

As for all else being equal, that has not been the case as the TO% and  the team defense has generally improved as of late.

A possible way to look at potential (get perspective) is based on barttorvik game score.  Here is chart of that.  

As you can see there is an upward trend indicative of improvement over first 11 games (impossible to get worse!).  But to put things in perspective, a game score of 20 corresponds to a rank of about 315, a game score of 30, a rank of 270, and score of 40, a rank of 215.  Now these are merely observed stats, and as @MuchMany correctly pointed out, some of the game scores JMU, Butler and Richmond may be inflated due to late game runs due to the opponent letting up.  So what does this mean? At a minimum, it gives a perspective as to the needed improvement to be on par with likes of MOH (33) and Ball St (28).  If they play more like the recent games, with improved shooting,  they might have a shot to compete for 7th / 8th in MAC.  The keys to the if...continued better ball control, team defense and shooting better overall.  The next four games will definitely provide perspective.

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by DocCas86

[Tee4three]

The schedule definitely lightens up the next few games

According to kenpom today UB has only played 1 team ranked higher than 175 in country which was FDU and the first game of the season