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Reflecting On The 2023/2024 Men's Season And Discussing The Future.


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5 hours ago, trueblue32 said:

Honestly don't think Boldin deserved it either. Ranks among the top 10 MAC freshmen in mins:

PRPG! (usage adjusted ORtg):
Sabol - 7th
Boldin - 9th

PER:
Boldin - 6th
Sabol - 8th

Box Plus/Minus:
Boldin - 6th
Sabol - 9th

Win Shares:
Boldin - 8th
Sabol - 9th

EvanMiya's BPR:
Sabol - 8th
Boldin - 10th

In a "rebuilding year" in the worst MAC in 20+ years, Halcovage brought in 5 freshmen and went 0 for 5 on all-freshmen players.

Nice players that I hope stick around, but some have over hyped them on this forum. 

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I looked back at my comments to see if I overhyped any of the FR. I will admit that I was guilty of focusing more on the positive, but I did mention defensive shortcomings.  I was being a little defensive in response to 'borderline D2' characterization.  That said I decided to compare Sabol to Osojnik who was on all freshman team.

First I want to acknowledge that any of the statistical comparisons are based on a limited number of observations.  I still feel that it is appropriate in this comparison to compare MAC stats - despite it being a smaller sample - as I feel that it is a more apples to apples comparison.  The first reason it is a better comparison, is Strength of Schedule - UB had a tougher schedule than EMU.  The majority of the stats are pulled from Sports Reference and include non-D1 opponents.  Second - Sabol played more in OOC than Osojnik.  So Sabol's overall stats get skewed downward by including more stats when he was still adjusting to the D1 level.  Without further delay, here are the comparisons.

image.png.7821af1638cf957e620d8f8ce358bd05.png

So my overall assessment would be Sabol was a slightly better offensive player, but Osojnik was better defensively based on RBG, STLG and BLKG.  I have no qualms with MAC picking Osojnik over Sabol - but would say that Sabol is much closer to the top of MAC FR than he is the bottom.  Hopefully this presents a balanced enough view.

Edited by DocCas86
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1 hour ago, DocCas86 said:

I looked back at my comments to see if I overhyped any of the FR. I will admit that I was guilty of focusing more on the positive, but I did mention defensive shortcomings.  I was being a little defensive in response to 'borderline D2' characterization.  That said I decided to compare Sabol to Osojnik who was on all freshman team.

First I want to acknowledge that any of the statistical comparisons are based on a limited number of observations.  I still feel that it is appropriate in this comparison to compare MAC stats - despite it being a smaller sample - as I feel that it is a more apples to apples comparison.  The first reason it is a better comparison, is Strength of Schedule - UB had a tougher schedule than EMU.  The majority of the stats are pulled from Sports Reference and include non-D1 opponents.  Second - Sabol played more in OOC than Osojnik.  So Sabol's overall stats get skewed downward by including more stats when he was still adjusting to the D1 level.  Without further delay, hear are the comparisons.

image.png.7821af1638cf957e620d8f8ce358bd05.png

So my overall assessment would be Sabol was a slightly better offensive player, but Osojnik was better defensively based on RBG, STLG and BLKG.  I have no qualms with MAC picking Osojnik over Sabol - but would say that Sabol is much closer to the top of MAC FR than he is the bottom.  Hopefully this presents a balanced enough view.

I think this is a fair assessment and provides some hope. Hopefully defense, handles and continued shooting will be the summer focus for Sabol and come back stronger.

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9 hours ago, UBinMD said:

I think this is a fair assessment and provides some hope. Hopefully defense, handles and continued shooting will be the summer focus for Sabol and come back stronger.

Sabol is a nice three point shooter, albeit streaky. Lacks athleticism. He reminds of Zach Filzen. I liked Filzen too, but always thought be would have been a better role player of the bench in favor of a multi level scorer.

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On 3/13/2024 at 10:52 AM, UBinMD said:

So rock bottom is official. Buffalo got no post season accolades, not even MAC Honorable Mention for Sy. Not that I disagree, but there are basically 20 spots( 1st, 2nd, 3rd, Honorable) and we have none of them, truly embarrassing. Certainly All-Defense was out the window. Definitely not 6th man. Hopefully better things to come!

There were 36 names here:   https://getsomemaction.com/news/2024/3/12/mac-announces-2023-24-mac-mens-basketball-all-mac-teams-specialty-award-winners.aspx

None were from UB.

I don't have the time or heart to check back in the history books to see when this happened the last time for UB (though who knows if there were 36 slots back then).

I understand the various tables and figures (and analysis therein) allows one to go deeper into the numbers (which is fine), but the "eye test" tells me that this is reasonable.   

There was a poster recently that looked at the (recent) history of Freshman and their impact -- it was a good look into that.  I remember about 15 years or so ago people on this board would project the hell out of some of our players who were underclassman and coming off questionable seasons.  Things like "so and so will be a junior next year" and that fact alone was supposed to account for improvement.  It was silly then and its silly now.

--

I think 0 - 36 and 3 D1 wins tells you all you need to know about the year.

On the plus side...I bleed blue...so...Tim Oboh!   I hope GH3 and his staff have a phenomenal offseason in filling out the roster.

Go Bulls.

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7 minutes ago, MuchMany said:

Yep. And Famakinde is a question mark, either a rising sophomore or a departure.

He disappeared off the roster months ago, so I assumed he was gone. He posts cryptic messages on X from time to time, which seem to indicate he is looking for something new.

I am personally shocked with the lack of portal movement from UB at this point. Is it possible this group wants to run it back and figure it out together? Are they willing to take a hard look at themselves and work on actual improvement? If this is the case, we should have 2 scholarships for presumably a JUCO or Transfer scorer and a JUCO or Transfer PG (one would hope). 

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7 minutes ago, UBinMD said:

He disappeared off the roster months ago, so I assumed he was gone. He posts cryptic messages on X from time to time, which seem to indicate he is looking for something new.

I am personally shocked with the lack of portal movement from UB at this point. Is it possible this group wants to run it back and figure it out together? Are they willing to take a hard look at themselves and work on actual improvement? If this is the case, we should have 2 scholarships for presumably a JUCO or Transfer scorer and a JUCO or Transfer PG (one would hope). 

Only one scholarship available currently, call it the unused one from this year (along with the 3 in/3 out balancing each other).

I feel like we need size just as much as a PG. Jo, Zaakir, and an unknown freshman from England is a precarious frontcourt after losing Sy.

In an ideal world for me, Graham would leave (he looked utterly broken this year) as well as McVeigh. Then bring in a vet PG, vet big, and a HS/JUCO shooter.

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2 hours ago, MuchMany said:

Only one scholarship available currently, call it the unused one from this year (along with the 3 in/3 out balancing each other).

I feel like we need size just as much as a PG. Jo, Zaakir, and an unknown freshman from England is a precarious frontcourt after losing Sy.

In an ideal world for me, Graham would leave (he looked utterly broken this year) as well as McVeigh. Then bring in a vet PG, vet big, and a HS/JUCO shooter.

This may be a stupid question and may end up being moot (if Adams / Smith transfer).  However, at one point, players were getting additional year of eligibility and it was not counting against the 13 available scholarships if they stayed with the same school.

Here is an excerpt from a story I found from 2021

In other words, if you have 13 basketball players on scholarship and three seniors stay for their extra year, you still get three additional scholarships for 2021-22. If a senior transfers to another school for that extra season, he or she counts against the allotted scholarship limit (which is 13 for men’s basketball).

Another excerpt:

COVID Blanket Waiver
When COVID-19 hit, the NCAA had to think fast. They came up with something called the COVID blanket waiver. 

In simple terms, this gave many student-athletes an extra year to play. That's why you see so many athletes taking an 'extra' 5th year to transfer schools and go for their master's degree while still playing in the NCAA.

Remember that this waiver was only for active athletes during the 2020-2021 academic year, and soon this waiver will become obsolete.

Does this rule still apply or did it expire?  Based on what I highlighted in prior sentence, it seems like it may apply to both Adams and Smith since they were active during the 2020-21 academic year.  If so, any chance we keep Adams and/or Smith and have three scholarships still available?

Edited by DocCas86
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1 minute ago, DocCas86 said:

This may be a stupid question and may end up being moot (if Adams / Smith transfer).  However, at one point, players were getting additional year of eligibility and it was not counting against the 13 available scholarships.

Here is an excerpt from a story I found from 2021

In other words, if you have 13 basketball players on scholarship and three seniors stay for their extra year, you still get three additional scholarships for 2021-22. If a senior transfers to another school for that extra season, he or she counts against the allotted scholarship limit (which is 13 for men’s basketball).

Another excerpt:

COVID Blanket Waiver
When COVID-19 hit, the NCAA had to think fast. They came up with something called the COVID blanket waiver. 

In simple terms, this gave many student-athletes an extra year to play. That's why you see so many athletes taking an 'extra' 5th year to transfer schools and go for their master's degree while still playing in the NCAA.

Remember that this waiver was only for active athletes during the 2020-2021 academic year, and soon this waiver will become obsolete.

Does this rule still apply or did it expire?  Based on what I highlighted in prior sentence, it seems like it may apply to both Adams and Smith since they were active during the 2020-21 academic year.  If so, any chance we keep Adams and/or Smith and have three scholarships still available?

I have no idea tbh. But based on the bolded, wouldn't Adams and Smith be regarded as having transferred elsewhere (here) for their fifth year since they aren't at the same school they were at for the covid season?

I'm a lifer Duke fan and they have a scholarship crunch coming with an insane six-man class incoming. Jeremy Roach may return for his fifth (covid) year, but I haven't seen any discussion of him being exempted from the 13 count. 

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4 minutes ago, MuchMany said:

I have no idea tbh. But based on the bolded, wouldn't Adams and Smith be regarded as having transferred elsewhere (here) for their fifth year since they aren't at the same school they were at for the covid season?

I'm a lifer Duke fan and they have a scholarship crunch coming with an insane six-man class incoming. Jeremy Roach may return for his fifth (covid) year, but I haven't seen any discussion of him being exempted from the 13 count. 

I certainly don't know either.  I understood whether they stay at the same school they attended their senior year vs any transfer during their career, but that is an interesting wrinkle you raise.  If either stay, hoping the rule applies, and we have three scholarships available regardless of what they choose.

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7 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

I certainly don't know either.  I understood whether they stay at the same school they attended their senior year vs any transfer during their career, but that is an interesting wrinkle you raise.  If either stay, hoping the rule applies, and we have three scholarships available regardless of what they choose.

So another Duke example that I think shows Adams and Smith are going to count against the 13.

Ryan Young played three years at Northwestern, including the Covid waiver year as a Soph. He transferred to Duke for his fourth year and is now in his fifth and final year. He is counting against the 13 scholarships this year. So he technically didn't transfer for his extra year, but he counts still.

I'm going with we're at one open scholarship unless I hear otherwise.

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8 minutes ago, MuchMany said:

So another Duke example that I think shows Adams and Smith are going to count against the 13.

Ryan Young played three years at Northwestern, including the Covid waiver year as a Soph. He transferred to Duke for his fourth year and is now in his fifth and final year. He is counting against the 13 scholarships this year. So he technically didn't transfer for his extra year, but he counts still.

I'm going with we're at one open scholarship unless I hear otherwise.

Thank you for the extra information.  Both Adams and Smith may end up transferring any way, but was trying to determine if the were eligible for exemption.

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57 minutes ago, MuchMany said:

So another Duke example that I think shows Adams and Smith are going to count against the 13.

Ryan Young played three years at Northwestern, including the Covid waiver year as a Soph. He transferred to Duke for his fourth year and is now in his fifth and final year. He is counting against the 13 scholarships this year. So he technically didn't transfer for his extra year, but he counts still.

I'm going with we're at one open scholarship unless I hear otherwise.

Usually Duke had plenty of turnover to the NBA, so it's interesting they are having to play the scholarship roulette with the rest of us!

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Just now, UBinMD said:

Usually Duke had plenty of turnover to the NBA, so it's interesting they are having to play the scholarship roulette with the rest of us!

Even the best NBA factory in the world gets a little clogged up when there are five 5-stars and one 4-star incoming. Maybe the most historic class ever.

I'd do backflips if UB ever sniffs a 4-star like Jeenathan again. Sigh.

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3 minutes ago, MuchMany said:

Even the best NBA factory in the world gets a little clogged up when there are five 5-stars and one 4-star incoming. Maybe the most historic class ever.

I'd do backflips if UB ever sniffs a 4-star like Jeenathan again. Sigh.

We need about $500k and a free Metro pass to make that happen again.

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1 hour ago, DocCas86 said:

Thank you for the extra information.  Both Adams and Smith may end up transferring any way, but was trying to determine if the were eligible for exemption.

They are not. That was a one year deal because the extra year was announced after incoming recruits were already committing and signing NLIs so that no one was left out in the cold. It's been back to the normal 13 scholarships again for a couple years

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On 3/19/2024 at 1:32 PM, MuchMany said:

Even the best NBA factory in the world gets a little clogged up when there are five 5-stars and one 4-star incoming. Maybe the most historic class ever.

I'd do backflips if UB ever sniffs a 4-star like Jeenathan again. Sigh.

The number of recruits brought in by this staff that are not rated by the recruiting services is shocking. I was at a game about a month ago when I told the person next to me that I could beat McVeigh one on one. Truth is he’d beat me 9 out of 10, but I could get him once. The difference between the types of athletes and players today compared to the golden era is stark.

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24 minutes ago, Chet said:

The number of recruits brought in by this staff that are not rated by the recruiting services is shocking. I was at a game about a month ago when I told the person next to me that I could beat McVeigh one on one. Truth is he’d beat me 9 out of 10, but I could get him once. The difference between the types of athletes and players today compared to the golden era is stark.

UB commit Brayden Jackson is playing/announced to the all Canadian team. I'm not familiar with it or it's history but it's something 

If you're bored check out the names also announced to this team while Jackson doesn't have any stars where I find him listed on recruiting sites the guys on this all Canadian team are all power conference recruits with 3/4/5 stars

Gotta mean something good 

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Just now, Tee4three said:

UB commit Brayden Jackson is playing/announced to the all Canadian team. I'm not familiar with it or it's history but it's something 

If you're bored check out the names also announced to this team while Jackson doesn't have any stars where I find him listed on recruiting sites the guys on this all Canadian team are all power conference recruits with 3/4/5 stars

Gotta mean something good 

Let's hope so!

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