dutchcountry7 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ranking-every-college-basketball-team-from-no-1-to-353-for-2019-20-and-an-interesting-fact-on-every-team/ 154. Buffalo: The most dominant season in program history -- by far; the Bulls were 32-4 last season! -- will lead to a huge comedown as Jim Whitesell takes over for outgoing Nate Oats. Buffalo still has some dudes, but winning the MAC will be a tussle. Top-100 teams on the schedule: #39 Harvard, #54 UConn, #87 DePaul, #88 St. Bonaventure, #93 Toledo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocCas86 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 45 minutes ago, dutchcountry7 said: https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ranking-every-college-basketball-team-from-no-1-to-353-for-2019-20-and-an-interesting-fact-on-every-team/ 154. Buffalo: The most dominant season in program history -- by far; the Bulls were 32-4 last season! -- will lead to a huge comedown as Jim Whitesell takes over for outgoing Nate Oats. Buffalo still has some dudes, but winning the MAC will be a tussle. Top-100 teams on the schedule: #39 Harvard, #54 UConn, #87 DePaul, #88 St. Bonaventure, #93 Toledo So I have seen everything form #29 - Massey.com to #175 on Barttovik.com. With the turnover on this team there is a lot of uncertainty as to how they will perform. I expect that a drop off in offense from 84.4 ppg last year to around 77-78. I expect the defense to be as tough as last year - giving up 71-72 ppg. My basic model suggests this means winning 60%-65% of games (~19 /20 wins). I am inclined to go along with Kenpom.com at #93 and collegesportsmadness.com at #109. This equates to UB being one of the top 3 teams in the MAC, with a definite shot at winning the MAC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UB92 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 23 minutes ago, DocCas86 said: So I have seen everything form #29 - Massey.com to #175 on Barttovik.com. With the turnover on this team there is a lot of uncertainty as to how they will perform. I expect that a drop off in offense from 84.4 ppg last year to around 77-78. I expect the defense to be as tough as last year - giving up 71-72 ppg. My basic model suggests this means winning 60%-65% of games (~19 /20 wins). I am inclined to go along with Kenpom.com at #93 and collegesportsmadness.com at #109. This equates to UB being one of the top 3 teams in the MAC, with a definite shot at winning the MAC. Buffalo has some room to regress and still have success...they were that much better than most teams they played last year (as you would expect from a Top 25 program that they were). So I tend to agree with you in that they will lose some scoring. I am curious to see how the defense looks. If they lose some on offense, but gain a similar amount on defense, shouldn't they have a strong year again (says the optimist!) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocCas86 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 (edited) 48 minutes ago, UB92 said: Buffalo has some room to regress and still have success...they were that much better than most teams they played last year (as you would expect from a Top 25 program that they were). So I tend to agree with you in that they will lose some scoring. I am curious to see how the defense looks. If they lose some on offense, but gain a similar amount on defense, shouldn't they have a strong year again (says the optimist!) I would love it if my assumptions are not optimistic enough. My very simplistic model predicts winning percent based on point per game differential (score more than your opponent and you win - so easy even I could figure that out!). If UB improves defensively to produce a differential of 8-10 points per game, then the winning percentage would be closer to 70-75%. Based on 31 regular season games would be ~21/22 wins. FWIW, when UB had a 70%-75% winning percentage, ranking was in 50 to 60 range. Finally, as a reasonableness test, last year UB scored 13.6 ppg more than their opponents. This would correspond to a predicted 85% winning percentage compared to actual win percentage of 89%. Here is the data I looked at: Edited October 22, 2019 by DocCas86 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
everlast2504 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 20 hours ago, dutchcountry7 said: https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ranking-every-college-basketball-team-from-no-1-to-353-for-2019-20-and-an-interesting-fact-on-every-team/ 154. Buffalo: The most dominant season in program history -- by far; the Bulls were 32-4 last season! -- will lead to a huge comedown as Jim Whitesell takes over for outgoing Nate Oats. Buffalo still has some dudes, but winning the MAC will be a tussle. Top-100 teams on the schedule: #39 Harvard, #54 UConn, #87 DePaul, #88 St. Bonaventure, #93 Toledo This ranking is a joke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocCas86 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 1 hour ago, everlast2504 said: This ranking is a joke. I agree, but you have to give them credit for recognizing that we 'still have some dudes'. 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikescherrer8 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 2 hours ago, everlast2504 said: This ranking is a joke. I just, don’t understand how the Bonnies are so high. I don’t care that they play in the A-10, but their current roster doesn’t dictate that ranking. They are not great on paper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutchcountry7 Posted October 24, 2019 Author Share Posted October 24, 2019 22 hours ago, mikescherrer8 said: I just, don’t understand how the Bonnies are so high. I don’t care that they play in the A-10, but their current roster doesn’t dictate that ranking. They are not great on paper. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Aren't they less experienced than we are? We have seasoned D1 guys and they have like no upper classmen... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BasketBull Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 23 hours ago, mikescherrer8 said: I just, don’t understand how the Bonnies are so high. I don’t care that they play in the A-10, but their current roster doesn’t dictate that ranking. They are not great on paper. Bonaventure has some great young talent on their roster. Lofton is going to be a fixture on the A10 all conference teams and Osunniyi, Planiutis and Welch should develop nicely. I have no issue with their ranking. I definitely take issue being behind Kent State, Ball State, Central Michigan (are you kidding me?) and Toledo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChubbyHubby Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Planiutis? They make orthotics to remedy that problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalobonnie Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 On 10/23/2019 at 12:55 PM, mikescherrer8 said: I just, don’t understand how the Bonnies are so high. I don’t care that they play in the A-10, but their current roster doesn’t dictate that ranking. They are not great on paper. Mike there are 153 teams rated ahead of UB and you only are worried about the Bonnies! You do care! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
961819 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Hopefully now everyone sees what I meant when I said Grant is easily a 10 ppg guy for us 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooleyBull06 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, 961819 said: Hopefully now everyone sees what I meant when I said Grant is easily a 10 ppg guy for us I was impressed with his size and ability to shoot from outside. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
961819 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Just now, DooleyBull06 said: I was impressed with his size and ability to shoot from outside. Plays with a chip on his shoulder, solid player and I’m sad we only get one season of him 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
961819 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Also I’d like to quickly point out someone who may not stick out much on the stat sheets this season but Savion is going to be a hell of a player down the line for us. He’s always giving 100% every play 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocCas86 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 A lot of positives tonight, glad I was able to get a glimpse of what people were saying on here. Looking forward to a successful season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
121Merrimac Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, 961819 said: Also I’d like to quickly point out someone who may not stick out much on the stat sheets this season but Savion is going to be a hell of a player down the line for us. He’s always giving 100% every play I think you were also pretty accurate regarding Brock's value. Your board participation rating might say "four year starter", but sometimes your insight feels more like team manager. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
961819 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, 121Merrimac said: I think you were also pretty accurate regarding Brock's value. Your board participation rating might say "four year starter", but sometimes your insight feels more like team manager. I appreciate that! It’ll be interesting to see if Brock still gets the start once Hardnett comes back. My guess is the center position will be largely situational depending on what the other team’s center situation is. Like when we play Miami OH we’ll probably start Brock since Miami has Bam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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