MBB vs Ball State | 1/23/24 7pm | ESPN+

[trueblue32]

With ratings updated, here are the complete list of teams that major rating sites have rated below UB (out of 362 D1 teams):


They all agree on only 14 teams being worse than UB (3.8% of all D1 teams). If UB was an underfunded HBCU, a service academy, or a recent D2->D1 transition school then Halcovage would be doing pretty well!

Edit: and for fun the consensus teams and their KenPom program rankings:

Edited January 24 by trueblue32

[John]

13 hours ago, eyjee said:

Getting real close to deeming this offense unwatchable. I don't know enough about basketball X's and O's to even try and think what system GH3 has in place for this team in the offensive zone... but man... if I see one more iso fade-away mid-range jumper...

Ball State has such a great thing going having Jihad and Hendricks on the court at the same time. Jo covering Hendricks and having Jihad on Isaiah or Sy is the whole reason we're in the foul trouble we find ourselves in.

Jihad and Hendricks is what our Skogman/Mballa should have been.

Playing basketball and coaching this is the worst team basketball we have seen in years. There was no offensive play. One player playing iso ball and the other players standing watching. No player went to the boards when a shot went up except Smith. I wonder what Coach H is drawing up at timeouts. Unfortunately this team is losing more season ticket holders and general fans. Just so demoralizing to see what has become of UB basketball. Watching this game there were no set plays, no picks and no screens. Watching this coaching staff we could see how upset Calvin Gage was and another coach clapping his hands like all was good. No life on the bench and especially from Coach H. With two road games coming up maybe this team will give a better performance.

[DocCas86]

2 hours ago, trueblue32 said:

With ratings updated, here are the complete list of teams that major rating sites have rated below UB (out of 362 D1 teams):


They all agree on only 14 teams being worse than UB (3.8% of all D1 teams). If UB was an underfunded HBCU, a service academy, or a recent D2->D1 transition school then Halcovage would be doing pretty well!

Edit: and for fun the consensus teams and their KenPom program rankings:

I had to look up the program rankings as it was a new one to me.   Here are details from Kenpom.

https://kenpom.com/blog/program-ratings/

Here is a view of the MAC - UB would rank 5th in the MAC.

Let's hope that GH3 is able to turn things around.

 

 

[MuchMany]

3 hours ago, trueblue32 said:

With ratings updated, here are the complete list of teams that major rating sites have rated below UB (out of 362 D1 teams):


They all agree on only 14 teams being worse than UB (3.8% of all D1 teams). If UB was an underfunded HBCU, a service academy, or a recent D2->D1 transition school then Halcovage would be doing pretty well!

Edit: and for fun the consensus teams and their KenPom program rankings:

Wow. We're such an outlier in that consensus list, as a large flagship state research university. Especially considering the success we had within the past five years (I'd love to see the high water mark for each school in that list). Appreciate you taking the time to lay out this perspective, bitter as it is.

[trueblue32]

14 minutes ago, MuchMany said:

Wow. We're such an outlier in that consensus list, as a large flagship state research university. Especially considering the success we had within the past five years (I'd love to see the high water mark for each school in that list). Appreciate you taking the time to lay out this perspective, bitter as it is.

KenPom does have that data. Here is the whole program ranking page for these teams, sorted by best season:

Edited January 24 by trueblue32

[trueblue32]

39 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

I had to look up the program rankings as it was a new one to me.   Here are details from Kenpom.

https://kenpom.com/blog/program-ratings/

Here is a view of the MAC - UB would rank 5th in the MAC.

Let's hope that GH3 is able to turn things around.

 

 

Important to note that the program rankings don't update until after the season. There's a decent shot we drop below at least Miami after this season. IUPUI was the biggest faller last season (among non-recent transitioners), dropping 23 spots after finishing ranked 360.

These are all made up numbers so who cares I guess, but they help quantify what a disaster Halcovage has been. Somehow it feels like this board was more pessimistic when Whitesell was here than when Halcovage is actively running this program into the ground. I guess all but the most optimistic have just stopped caring, and I counted myself in the more optimistic group during the Whitesell years.

Edited January 24 by trueblue32

[Tee4three]

1 hour ago, trueblue32 said:

Important to note that the program rankings don't update until after the season. There's a decent shot we drop below at least Miami after this season. IUPUI was the biggest faller last season (among non-recent transitioners), dropping 23 spots after finishing ranked 360.

These are all made up numbers so who cares I guess, but they help quantify what a disaster Halcovage has been. Somehow it feels like this board was more pessimistic when Whitesell was here than when Halcovage is actively running this program into the ground. I guess all but the most optimistic have just stopped caring, and I counted myself in the more optimistic group during the Whitesell years.

I think the optimistic ones that remain because realistically you need to give Coach GH3 another season 

The guy lost an entire team and needed to start from scratch, should it be as bad as what we are witnessing probably not but fans do need to at least have some patience

Side note if Chatman had played last season whitesell is likely still coaching, which is kinda crazy to think about

Edited January 24 by Tee4three

[DocCas86]

15 minutes ago, Tee4three said:

I think the optimistic ones that remain because realistically you need to give Coach GH3 another season 

The guy lost an entire team and needed to start from scratch, should it be as bad as what we are witnessing probably not but fans do need to at least have some patience

Side note if Chatman had played last season whitesell is likely still coaching, which is kinda crazy to think about

I also wonder, especially with this being a down year in the MAC, if you had Whitesell and most of last years team.  Curtis Jones, Jack, Zid and Ceaser still playing alongside Chatman, and Adams, would Whitesell have been competing for a MAC championship.  Certainly no way to know as you don't know who would have still transferred.  I am not second guessing the decision and hoping this doesn't open up a debate, but I do wonder.   

[skrabukes]

13 minutes ago, Tee4three said:

I think the optimistic ones that remain because realistically you need to give Coach GH3 another season 

The guy lost an entire team and needed to start from scratch, should it be as bad as what we are witnessing probably not but fans do need to at least have some patience

Side note if Chatman had played last season whitesell is likely still coaching, which is kinda crazy to think about

"Kinda crazy"? Is having a competent coach "crazy"? This team would be a million miles better under the old regime. Sorry, he wasn't Nate and never was going to be, but he was a solid coach. Now look at what we have.

Why don't we give him 5 more years while we're at it? I mean, this year we can't count because "these aren't his guys" or "he lost an entire team". Next year's excuse will be "these guys are young and growing into the system". The following year will be "we need more money and support". By then, maybe we'll have 10 total wins under this regime, but I'd wager against it, unless they schedule 15 games with Roberts Wesleyan. 

This is so sad to watch the absolute disaster that this has become. Watching long time fans and supporters walking out with 10 minutes to go last night, shaking their heads, one after another. You could've heard a pin drop pretty much the entire 2nd half. The only time there is noise is when a t-shirt is being tossed into the crowd. I made it to 0:00, but my head was in my hands. As I walked past the Ball State fans (all 20 of them who made the trip) I overhears one of them say "we were louder than all of their fans" to which I casually replied "you see the product we have, right?". One season ticket holder, Courtside, even mentioned casually that he's likely not renewing next year. This is not good whatsoever, with absolutely zero light at the end if the tunnel, only deeper darkness.

[enrique14150]

2 hours ago, trueblue32 said:

Somehow it feels like this board was more pessimistic when Whitesell was here than when Halcovage is actively running this program into the ground. I guess all but the most optimistic have just stopped caring, and I counted myself in the more optimistic group during the Whitesell years.

I think there's a sense of, Halcovage is in his first year and he gets some patience from people for that.  But no one thought it would be THIS bad.  They were a .500 team last year.  I thought it might be a little ragged but not THIS bad.  You're not wrong to cut the guy some slack in his first season - you're also not wrong to say, you came into a program that has some standards and expectations and those are really not being met.

I think that Whitesell had a different situation in that he (a) picked up a better team to begin with and (b) higher expectations right away.  I also think there was always a significant segment of the fans who didn't like his hiring in the first place.  I too counted myself among the optimistic group in the past couple years.

For all the talk of how they have a lot of new players this year - they had the same challenge last year.  Between seniors and transfers after 21-22, 22-23 was a whole new team (THREE returning players from 21-22).  They managed a .500 year.  There's five returning players from last year (if you count Chatman, who didn't play because he was hurt).  

It will be big to see what Halcovage can bring in after this season and who leaves.  While it wouldn't be bad to turn over a bad team, constant turnover is like running in quicksand.  Big picture, it's vital that they keep the freshmen and that Graham gets playing time to see what he can possibly be. If they can't bring in recruits, if this still looks this bad this time next year, then we've got huge problems.

I think programs plan along and sometimes you get a really good group (Battle/Bortz/Gilbert/Bird, or CJ/Perkins/Carruthers/Harris), but the next group you recruited to carry on doesn't reach the same level (Gamble/Robinson/Betts, Williams/Segu/Mballa).  I think Whitesell and company recruited that next core of the team which was supposed to be Curtis Jones and Dave Skogman, to build around...but in today's NCAA Skogman transferred, then Jones and Jack transferred, and the bottom fell out (talent development pipeline-wise) of the whole project.  And that's where we're at.

So it's vital that they recruit the next core of this team in the next year or two.  

Edited January 24 by enrique14150

[skrabukes]

1 minute ago, DocCas86 said:

I also wonder, especially with this being a down year in the MAC, if you had Whitesell and most of last years team.  Curtis Jones, Jack, Zid and Ceaser still playing alongside Chatman, and Adams, would Whitesell have been competing for a MAC championship.  Certainly no way to know as you don't know who would have still transferred.  I am not second guessing the decision and hoping this doesn't open up a debate, but I do wonder.   

I don't need to compete for a MAC championship. At this point, I'd settle for being able to compete in a game and watch a game without raising my arms in disgust every possession on either side of the floor. 

And the answer is yes, if last years crew was here, they'd have been top 4 MAC this year.  Maybe wouldn't have won (probably wouldn't have), but at least would've been a formidable opponent for teams most of the time, unlike the doormat we currently are.

[enrique14150]

Skrabukes - yeah, I have wondered lately if Whitesell and company actually got a lot out of that group last year and we didn't realize it.  (As in, you needed to really know how to coach if you were going to get that group playing).   I don't know if they would be a contender this year but it certainly wouldn't look this bad.

[Tee4three]

18 minutes ago, skrabukes said:

"Kinda crazy"? Is having a competent coach "crazy"? This team would be a million miles better under the old regime. Sorry, he wasn't Nate and never was going to be, but he was a solid coach. Now look at what we have.

Why don't we give him 5 more years while we're at it? I mean, this year we can't count because "these aren't his guys" or "he lost an entire team". Next year's excuse will be "these guys are young and growing into the system". The following year will be "we need more money and support". By then, maybe we'll have 10 total wins under this regime, but I'd wager against it, unless they schedule 15 games with Roberts Wesleyan. 

This is so sad to watch the absolute disaster that this has become. Watching long time fans and supporters walking out with 10 minutes to go last night, shaking their heads, one after another. You could've heard a pin drop pretty much the entire 2nd half. The only time there is noise is when a t-shirt is being tossed into the crowd. I made it to 0:00, but my head was in my hands. As I walked past the Ball State fans (all 20 of them who made the trip) I overhears one of them say "we were louder than all of their fans" to which I casually replied "you see the product we have, right?". One season ticket holder, Courtside, even mentioned casually that he's likely not renewing next year. This is not good whatsoever, with absolutely zero light at the end if the tunnel, only deeper darkness.

I mean I stand by kinda crazy

One player being injured last season likely cost whitesell his job...which is kinda crazy that one player likely swings a large decision that much

Never said that had we kept whitesell we would be better currently.....I mean that's pretty obvious 

[trueblue32]

41 minutes ago, enrique14150 said:

I think there's a sense of, Halcovage is in his first year and he gets some patience from people for that.  But no one thought it would be THIS bad.  They were a .500 team last year.  I thought it might be a little ragged but not THIS bad.  You're not wrong to cut the guy some slack in his first season - you're also not wrong to say, you came into a program that has some standards and expectations and those are really not being met.

My stance on it is that "not being bottom 15 in the country" is a reasonable bar for a first year coach. He didn't add the talent to avoid that and he's not doing anything Xs and Os wise to elevate the talent above that. On top of that the roster is unexplainably shrinking in size as well as fan support. I'd like to know what exactly people think he's bringing to the table. 

What are the patient people hoping to see next year? .500 in the MAC if we're lucky? The same record that got Whitesell canned?

Edited January 24 by trueblue32

[skrabukes]

6 minutes ago, trueblue32 said:

My stance on it is that "not being bottom 15 in the country" is a reasonable bar for a first year coach. He didn't add the talent to avoid that and he's not doing anything Xs and Os wise to elevate the talent above that so I'd like to know what exactly people think he's bringing to the table.

What are the patient people hoping to see next year? .500 in the MAC if we're lucky? The same record that got Whitesell canned?

.500? Are you watching the same stuff that I am? They will be lucky to win 5 next year in total. This team will be worse next year, if that's possible. Losing Sy, a 1st team mac caliber guy is very big, with nothing in the pipeline. 

[trueblue32]

22 minutes ago, Tee4three said:

Never said that had we kept whitesell we would be better currently.....I mean that's pretty obvious 

Maybe if we're still paying him we can eat Halcovage's contract instead and bring Whitesell back.. I'm only half joking

[trueblue32]

1 minute ago, skrabukes said:

.500? Are you watching the same stuff that I am? They will be lucky to win 5 next year in total. This team will be worse next year, if that's possible. Losing Sy, a 1st team mac caliber guy is very big, with nothing in the pipeline. 

To be clear I'm very much on your side. I was giving an optimistic projection since I was asking what the optimistic people are thinking. Smith and Adams are also likely going to be in position to graduate and get a free transfer regardless of whatever happens with the NCAA's two time transfer stuff. It's very likely that we will have at most 40% of the scoring production returning from what is currently a two win team.

Edited January 24 by trueblue32

[eyjee]

I think there's a lot of revisionist history happening on Whitesell in here. The 21-22 roster was absolutely stacked and he couldn't get them better than a 4 seed in the MAC tourney coupled with a first-round exit (yes, to the eventual winner, but still). I'm sorry but if you have Williams and Segu coupled with Mballa, Skogman, Hardnett. Jack coming off the bench drilling threes. Fagan coming off the bench with that hustle. Brewton coming off the bench wishing he could shoot threes like Mace... you gotta do better

Really what I think we all miss deep down is just the general blue collar hard hat era. I saw Zaakir try to draw a charge last night and that was one of the most charged up moments I've had this season, even with it ending up being a defensive foul. It was just nice to see a player have the attitude of putting their body on the line for the team, trying to spark something with hustle.

But yes, that culture that attitude that comes from the staff down.

I'm trying so hard to give GH3 the benefit of the doubt. To give him a full recruiting year. To see if he can keep Boldin and Sabol and what kind of growth they show next season. To see if he can coach Fulcher out of these turnovers so he can be a tempo changing guard off the bench for us.

I'm just not seeing it though.

[trueblue32]

43 minutes ago, eyjee said:

I think there's a lot of revisionist history happening on Whitesell in here.

I won't speak for anyone else but I'm fully aware of what transpired in the Whitesell years.
All I'm saying is that it was a lot more fun when in his worst season he had 10 wins on January 24th instead of 2. It was a lot more fun when in Whitesell's worst seasons we were still participating in the MAC tournament, not trending towards elimination by February.

You also highlighted all the talent that you felt like he underachieved with, it's a fair point, but getting talent on the roster and keeping it is still part of being a coach, and Whitesell was generally successful at it. Do you think you can say the same thing about Halcovage? Chatman/Smith/Adams/Kanye were all stuck here due to NCAA rules so who is the most talented player that Halcovage recruited or retained? Where would you slot them into the rotation on the Segu/Williams/Hardnett/Mballa/Skogman/Jack/Brewton teams?

My defense of Whitesell was always that UB is a lot closer to falling off the map *broadly gesturing at the current situation* than becoming the Gonzaga of the East or a perennial top 25 team or whatever Nate Oats tricked half this board into believing. UB's path forward was maintaining competitive relevance and hoping to get scooped up into a better conference in the next round of realignment (that ship has sailed). We're now two coaches removed from our top 25 football and MBB teams. I'm now over pretending that we're destined for something special and I would just like to see a competitive product at a minimum.

Edited January 24 by trueblue32

[MuchMany]

Reposting this as a tool for discussing what has transpired with the roster and program in the last few years. Couple tweaks, added future verbal commits, working on linking seasons & players. Crazy to think about the quality of guards we had in the last decade compared to now.

Buffalo MBB Roster Flow (1999-present)

[DaBulls99]

We could literally cut the whole team and start fresh if we wanted. To say right we’ll be worse is total BS. At least wait until we have a finished roster. 

[trueblue32]

11 minutes ago, DaBulls99 said:

We could literally cut the whole team and start fresh if we wanted. To say right we’ll be worse is total BS. At least wait until we have a finished roster. 

Parents of prospective recruits love it when a coach has a history of running off scholarship players

[Ubbulls84]

1 hour ago, MuchMany said:

Reposting this as a tool for discussing what has transpired with the roster and program in the last few years. Couple tweaks, added future verbal commits, working on linking seasons & players. Crazy to think about the quality of guards we had in the last decade compared to now.

Buffalo MBB Roster Flow (1999-present)

More than a decade, two decades of quality guards, even can go back to the Turner Battle, Calvin Cage days they had quality backcourt back than also. It’s been basically 25 years since been this bad..

[eyjee]

2 hours ago, trueblue32 said:

I won't speak for anyone else but I'm fully aware of what transpired in the Whitesell years.
All I'm saying is that it was a lot more fun when in his worst season he had 10 wins on January 24th instead of 2. It was a lot more fun when in Whitesell's worst seasons we were still participating in the MAC tournament, not trending towards elimination by February.

You also highlighted all the talent that you felt like he underachieved with, it's a fair point, but getting talent on the roster and keeping it is still part of being a coach, and Whitesell was generally successful at it. Do you think you can say the same thing about Halcovage? Chatman/Smith/Adams/Kanye were all stuck here due to NCAA rules so who is the most talented player that Halcovage recruited or retained? Where would you slot them into the rotation on the Segu/Williams/Hardnett/Mballa/Skogman/Jack/Brewton teams?

My defense of Whitesell was always that UB is a lot closer to falling off the map *broadly gesturing at the current situation* than becoming the Gonzaga of the East or a perennial top 25 team or whatever Nate Oats tricked half this board into believing. UB's path forward was maintaining competitive relevance and hoping to get scooped up into a better conference in the next round of realignment (that ship has sailed). We're now two coaches removed from our top 25 football and MBB teams. I'm now over pretending that we're destined for something special and I would just like to see a competitive product at a minimum.

I don't disagree with any of this per se, and frankly I hate that I'm becoming a Halcovage apologist of sorts... 

And for the record, I'm pissed too don't get me wrong. This team is basically unwatchable. I can't figure out the system, if one exists. And I miss the competitiveness our guys used to have on the court. Guys far more skilled than what we're pumping out on the court right now willing to dive on the floor, take charges, hustle back on D and hustle to get into the play on O.

But I'm willing to give GH3 a full recruiting shot... that's really my only point and the only thing keeping me from fully giving up on the guy as a HC at this point. He's gotta prove it this off-season. That's for sure.

[DaBulls99]

1 hour ago, trueblue32 said:

Parents of prospective recruits love it when a coach has a history of running off scholarship players

Ah yes. So the coach will play scared and not want to recruit over the current pile of dog crap to continue to be bottom 15 in the country. Makes sense.