2022-23 Men's Basketball Expecations

[DocCas86]

With exhibition with Daemen less than 1 week away and first game  in 2 weeks - thought I would get sense for what people are expecting for this years team.

[UBinMD]

54 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

With exhibition with Daemen less than 1 week away and first game  in 2 weeks - thought I would get sense for what people are expecting for this years team.

A good question and a peg in the sand on expectations. I will be VERY lenient at the beginning of the year until we can get a sense of what we have and how they play together. I expect to see a number of different starting lineups and rotations to see which guys play best together, who is a spark off the bench, who is the lockdown defenders, etc. I have tempered hopes for this group. Similar to the women's team, I think we have a lot of talent, but can they play as one.

[Tee4three]

I'm in the 18 or 19 wins total and 12 or 13 Mac wins

Think UB as a program those should be the minimum expectations no matter what

The talent is there to beat those expectations but at the same time it's such a huge turnover it might take a few games to get going so might be high on the total 

[clodney]

Obviously, I disagreed with giving Whitesell another term with a completely fresh roster after doing nothing with perhaps our best talent ever. But since we're so deeply committed to him I'm really hoping that the team at least shows progress throughout the season. It's hard to stomach yet another year of mediocre results but if it means we can challenge for the MAC title next year then I'm on board. This is Whitesell's biggest opportunity to show his ability to develop young players. Prove me wrong, coach.

[DocCas86]

26 minutes ago, clodney said:

Obviously, I disagreed with giving Whitesell another term with a completely fresh roster after doing nothing with perhaps our best talent ever. But since we're so deeply committed to him I'm really hoping that the team at least shows progress throughout the season. It's hard to stomach yet another year of mediocre results but if it means we can challenge for the MAC title next year then I'm on board. This is Whitesell's biggest opportunity to show his ability to develop young players. Prove me wrong, coach.

I agree with your view of upcoming season.  The turnover does present some challenges.  This is Whitesell's team.  I am looking for improvement as season goes on.  At a minimum need hope that the team can challenge for MAC next year.

[JoeyRattlesnake]

Agree with the overall sentiment here.  Rebuilding year and it will take time to develop chemistry.  That, and given we play arguably our toughest non-conference schedule ever with UConn, WVU and Michigan State all on the docket, I think we'll be hard-pressed to enter MAC play with a .500 record.  And we all know how tough the MAC can be, so best case scenario we're 6-6 entering MAC play and a great year would be 12-6 in conference play... we're looking at 18-12 or so.  Clearly not any at-large conversations happening with that resume, so it's as it always is... win the tourney or else.

[promotherobot]

2 hours ago, JoeyRattlesnake said:

Agree with the overall sentiment here.  Rebuilding year and it will take time to develop chemistry.  That, and given we play arguably our toughest non-conference schedule ever with UConn, WVU and Michigan State all on the docket, I think we'll be hard-pressed to enter MAC play with a .500 record.  And we all know how tough the MAC can be, so best case scenario we're 6-6 entering MAC play and a great year would be 12-6 in conference play... we're looking at 18-12 or so.  Clearly not any at-large conversations happening with that resume, so it's as it always is... win the tourney or else.

With the transfer portal, the deck is going to get shuffled every year in mid-major conferences. You could be great one year and crap the next. Let's hope we get lucky.

[DocCas86]

Here is a little perspective - using MAC records from 2015-2020 (all 18 game seasons).  Here are the ranges for wins from best record to worst record:

I see us finishing somewhere between 4th-6th this upcoming season, which seems to be in line with the initial results of 10-11 wins in the MAC.

[Chet]

It's certainly appears that this season will be a difficult one. Unless MAC basketball is as bad as MAC football is this year, I'd be surprised by any thing better than .500.

[DocCas86]

4 hours ago, promotherobot said:

With the transfer portal, the deck is going to get shuffled every year in mid-major conferences. You could be great one year and crap the next. Let's hope we get lucky.

I believe one way to get 'lucky' is by playing tough 'd'.   The best year in Whitesell era was his second when the team had 96.1 adj def eff.    I hope he has been preaching d to the team!

[DooleyBull06]

I'm tempering expectations this year.  This is essentially an entirely new team.  Its going to take months for them to develop an identity.  I don't even think coach knows who the starters will be and what the rotation will be.  Which is fine at this point, but furthers the point that we can't expect this team to hit the ground running.  There are gonna be growing pains.  We can have all the individual talent and athleticism in the world but the players have to buy in on both ends of the court.  Quicker we do that the better.  But for now, let us use the non conference to develop and grow.  Yes I wanna win games and maybe pull an upset along the way, but I honestly don't know what to expect. Therefore I am I'm just going to hope to grow and develop and really turn the corner come February and make a push for Cleveland. It is what it is at this point, we've had so much turnover on the roster that all we are left with is "if".  If this player does this, if we hit some 3s, if we play better D.  If.  So lets enjoy the ride.  Go Bulls!

[John]

3 hours ago, DooleyBull06 said:

I'm tempering expectations this year.  This is essentially an entirely new team.  Its going to take months for them to develop an identity.  I don't even think coach knows who the starters will be and what the rotation will be.  Which is fine at this point, but furthers the point that we can't expect this team to hit the ground running.  There are gonna be growing pains.  We can have all the individual talent and athleticism in the world but the players have to buy in on both ends of the court.  Quicker we do that the better.  But for now, let us use the non conference to develop and grow.  Yes I wanna win games and maybe pull an upset along the way, but I honestly don't know what to expect. Therefore I am I'm just going to hope to grow and develop and really turn the corner come February and make a push for Cleveland. It is what it is at this point, we've had so much turnover on the roster that all we are left with is "if".  If this player does this, if we hit some 3s, if we play better D.  If.  So lets enjoy the ride.  Go Bulls!

Do agree. With so many newcomers it will probably take a number of games to see who are going to be the main contributors. What is the status of Hardnett and Chatman? They could be the two players that could help our frontline. Go Bulls!!

[DaBulls99]

Someone mentioned in the game thread Chatman is still recovering from injury and may redshirt. Hardnett didn’t dress 🤷‍♂️

Edited October 31, 2022 by DaBulls99

[DocCas86]

Here is chart showing composite (10 rankings) expectations.  The blue bar captures rankings from 25th to 75th percentile.  The other boxes capture overall range from min to max.

The most uncertain expectations are UB and EMU (how much does Emoni Bates improve them).  I would say that the composite mirrors the results of the poll so far.  I would translate this into following predictions for MAC tourney:

Toledo:  13-5; Akron:  12-6; Kent:  11-7; Ohio:  11-7; Buffalo:  10-8; Ball St:  9-9; EMU:  9-9; BGSU:  8-10

[UB92]

8 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

Here is chart showing composite (10 rankings) expectations.  The blue bar captures rankings from 25th to 75th percentile.  The other boxes capture overall range from min to max.

The most uncertain expectations are UB and EMU (how much does Emoni Bates improve them).  I would say that the composite mirrors the results of the poll so far.  I would translate this into following predictions for MAC tourney:

Toledo:  13-5; Akron:  12-6; Kent:  11-7; Ohio:  11-7; Buffalo:  10-8; Ball St:  9-9; EMU:  9-9; BGSU:  8-10

Did you do this yourself (i.e., mine ten rankings for the info) or did someone else do this composite?

I understand the blue bar capturing 25 - 75 percentile, but does the red box capture all 10 of the low rankings (likewise, the green capturing all of the high rankings)?  I guess I don't understand those boxes.  Do they represent the ranges from 75 - 100th and 1st to 25th quartile?  Is this a box-and-whisker plot?

[DocCas86]

28 minutes ago, UB92 said:

Did you do this yourself (i.e., mine ten rankings for the info) or did someone else do this composite?

I understand the blue bar capturing 25 - 75 percentile, but does the red box capture all 10 of the low rankings (likewise, the green capturing all of the high rankings)?  I guess I don't understand those boxes.  Do they represent the ranges from 75 - 100th and 1st to 25th quartile?  Is this a box-and-whisker plot?

First the composite comes from this website:  https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

As for the chart, apologies I did not explain well enough or format better.  The green bar would capture range from best (minimum) ranking to the 25 percentile and the red bar represents the range from the 75th  to worst (maximum) ranking.  So from the bottom of the green bar to top of red bar represents the entire range of the 10 rankings.  Yes - it was my attempt at box and whisker plot.  I see now that Excel has an option for box-and-whisker which may have been formatted more to what you are accustomed to seeing.

[UB Horns Up]

UB Bulls basketball NCAA tournament this season or Jim Whitesell should finally either be fired or forced to retire. I don’t know which coach is worse at this point Jim Whitesell or Canisius Golden Griffins Reggie Witherspoon? There is no such thing as a rebuilding year with the transfer portal available today for coaches in my opinion. UB Horns Up! Go Bulls! Let’s Go Buffalo 

Edited November 1, 2022 by UB Horns Up

[UB92]

23 hours ago, UB92 said:

Did you do this yourself (i.e., mine ten rankings for the info) or did someone else do this composite?

I understand the blue bar capturing 25 - 75 percentile, but does the red box capture all 10 of the low rankings (likewise, the green capturing all of the high rankings)?  I guess I don't understand those boxes.  Do they represent the ranges from 75 - 100th and 1st to 25th quartile?  Is this a box-and-whisker plot?

I think this 10-ranking compilation is interesting, though I don't know how much of this is independent analysis and how much of it is multiple outlets using one (or a few persons) research.  

Either there is optimism in the Bulls or pessimism in several teams towards the bottom of the MAC.  

Indeed, if you trust Massey, he ranks SUNY Buffalo [120] as 3rd in the conference (behind Toledo [115] and Akron [119]), and first in offense.  I am a little surprised in the optimism, but pleasantly surprised.  When you look at the UBfan poll, the 30 members have us at about 17 wins overall, and around 10 or 11 in conference.  That's more in the 5th - 6th place range.  But the composite rankings, as you allude to, paint a similar picture to our 30 members.

[DocCas86]

39 minutes ago, UB92 said:

I think this 10-ranking compilation is interesting, though I don't know how much of this is independent analysis and how much of it is multiple outlets using one (or a few persons) research.  

Either there is optimism in the Bulls or pessimism in several teams towards the bottom of the MAC.  

Indeed, if you trust Massey, he ranks SUNY Buffalo [120] as 3rd in the conference (behind Toledo [115] and Akron [119]), and first in offense.  I am a little surprised in the optimism, but pleasantly surprised.  When you look at the UBfan poll, the 30 members have us at about 17 wins overall, and around 10 or 11 in conference.  That's more in the 5th - 6th place range.  But the composite rankings, as you allude to, paint a similar picture to our 30 members.

There is definitely overlap / correlation between ranking.  However, the range for UB is much larger than others - which is not surprising given the amount of turnover on the team. 

I suspect Massey gives a fair amount of weight in initial projection to past performance, so may very well be optimistic.  Conversely, barttorvik penalizes this turnover quite significantly.  Both these views go out the window with the amount of transfers that we will be seeing from here on out.  These preseason polls are interesting and do a reasonably good job of saying who is near the top and who is in the bottom. 

EMU is interesting team - as if not for Bates, they would be a MAC cellar dweller again.  It will be interesting how much he brings them up.  Also I  feel 3 days in Cleveland, he could take over or he could have one bad game and they are gone, a lot of variability I think in EMU's expectation.

[DocCas86]

On 11/1/2022 at 1:30 AM, UB Horns Up said:

UB Bulls basketball NCAA tournament this season or Jim Whitesell should finally either be fired or forced to retire. I don’t know which coach is worse at this point Jim Whitesell or Canisius Golden Griffins Reggie Witherspoon? There is no such thing as a rebuilding year with the transfer portal available today for coaches in my opinion. UB Horns Up! Go Bulls! Let’s Go Buffalo 

This year may very well prove to be a down year, especially when you consider all the turnover of personnel and arguably one of our toughest OOC schedules.  My research comparing Whitesell to elite MAC coaches found win/loss pct for Whitesell (0.613) in the MAC similar to the likes of Boals (0.609)/ Groce (0.609), but below true elites (Oats (0.691) and Jim Christian(0.697)).  The team rankings per Kenpom for Whitesell (median 130)in the MAC are similar to Boals (median 134) / Groce (median 112).   The one area where Whitesell's teams have been lacking is winning a MAC championship (0/3) compared to an 'elite' coach who have typically won a MAC championship about 25%-30% or once every 3 or 4 years.  Note also we are talking about six 'elite' coaches in 15 MAC seasons, so it is not exactly a slam dunk that you will land an 'elite' coach.

Therefore, I take a slightly different perspective.  I do want a MAC championship, we all do.  However, I am inclined to consider progress throughout the year with this team, did they have a shot at MAC Championship come March and what are the prospect for the following season.  He will have to earn another year, but I think you consider a broader picture.

[yussi1870]

Looks like SI has us ranked 187th. It’s great to see us get recognized and special thanks to coach Whitesell for this.

https://www.si.com/.amp/college/2022/11/02/ranking-every-team-in-college-basketball-unc-gonzaga

[UBinMD]

17 minutes ago, yussi1870 said:

Looks like SI has us ranked 187th. It’s great to see us get recognized and special thanks to coach Whitesell for this.

https://www.si.com/.amp/college/2022/11/02/ranking-every-team-in-college-basketball-unc-gonzaga

Always good to get some press! I'm really interested to see how the guys fair against Colgate. I really liked a lot of things during the exhibition, so we will see how they handle taking the competition up a notch. Colgate is projected #1 in their conference and are positioned 60 spots ahead of us in these rankings, so it will be a good test out of the gate. Go Bulls!!

[DocCas86]

1 hour ago, yussi1870 said:

Looks like SI has us ranked 187th. It’s great to see us get recognized and special thanks to coach Whitesell for this.

https://www.si.com/.amp/college/2022/11/02/ranking-every-team-in-college-basketball-unc-gonzaga

Agree this is not the type of recognition that we want.  There is talent on this roster, and I think the team will end up ranked 130 - 150 range.  They won't be the favorite for the MAC championship, but will be competitive and could have a shot come March. 

Does anyone have any more on status of Chatman and Hardnett - I have heard Chatman may be available come January or possible red-shirt.  I have not heard anything about Hardnett.

[clodney]

On 11/2/2022 at 8:57 AM, DocCas86 said:

This year may very well prove to be a down year, especially when you consider all the turnover of personnel and arguably one of our toughest OOC schedules.  My research comparing Whitesell to elite MAC coaches found win/loss pct for Whitesell (0.613) in the MAC similar to the likes of Boals (0.609)/ Groce (0.609), but below true elites (Oats (0.691) and Jim Christian(0.697)).  The team rankings per Kenpom for Whitesell (median 130)in the MAC are similar to Boals (median 134) / Groce (median 112).   The one area where Whitesell's teams have been lacking is winning a MAC championship (0/3) compared to an 'elite' coach who have typically won a MAC championship about 25%-30% or once every 3 or 4 years.  Note also we are talking about six 'elite' coaches in 15 MAC seasons, so it is not exactly a slam dunk that you will land an 'elite' coach.

I don't understand why you keep comparing these coaches by simply looking at their overall win-loss records. In my mind they are wildly different:

 - Boals inherited a sub-500 team that forced the prior coach, Saul Phillips, out of a job. His teams have shown constant growth in his 3 years with records of 17-15, 17-7 and 25-10 and he's managed to not only win the MAC but win in the NCAA tournament as well.

 - Groce may be a slightly better comparison while at Akron but he took over a bare bones roster with only 3 returning players with any minutes after being fired by Illinois. He took a few years to install his system after Dambrot's Reggie-Ball style but he's shown a ton of progress and he won the MAC last year. Don't forget he took Ohio to the Sweet 16 a few years back.

 - Whitesell was literally hired to maintain an insanely talented roster and while I give him credit for doing so, he also managed to completely dismantle our blue collar system of defensive intensity and counter attacks. He squandered that talent and the team showed minimal growth over his 3 years ending with 0 MAC Championships and 2 horrendous first round upsets.

I just don't see the comparison. 2 teams have shown growth and development while the other has completely lost its identity. It's beyond simple wins and losses.

 

[UBinMD]

21 minutes ago, clodney said:

I don't understand why you keep comparing these coaches by simply looking at their overall win-loss records. In my mind they are wildly different:

 - Boals inherited a sub-500 team that forced the prior coach, Saul Phillips, out of a job. His teams have shown constant growth in his 3 years with records of 17-15, 17-7 and 25-10 and he's managed to not only win the MAC but win in the NCAA tournament as well.

 - Groce may be a slightly better comparison while at Akron but he took over a bare bones roster with only 3 returning players with any minutes after being fired by Illinois. He took a few years to install his system after Dambrot's Reggie-Ball style but he's shown a ton of progress and he won the MAC last year. Don't forget he took Ohio to the Sweet 16 a few years back.

 - Whitesell was literally hired to maintain an insanely talented roster and while I give him credit for doing so, he also managed to completely dismantle our blue collar system of defensive intensity and counter attacks. He squandered that talent and the team showed minimal growth over his 3 years ending with 0 MAC Championships and 2 horrendous first round upsets.

I just don't see the comparison. 2 teams have shown growth and development while the other has completely lost its identity. It's beyond simple wins and losses.

 

I know a lot falls on any coaching staff, as it rightly should. I do, however, lay a lot of the blame at the feet of our Veteran Heavy lineup. Those guys grew up with the Blue Collar guys, knew what it took to win, but they underperformed when it was their turn to step up. It's great to see Segu and Williams getting their shot at the next level (but this also makes me wonder why they wilted so badly since they obviously have talent). Mballa was a shell of himself for most of the year, we will see if he turns it around in the SEC this year. The bright spot was Skogman and I think he was poorly used down the stretch. I wonder if he saw what the staff brought in a support cast would have changed his mind on transferring because he could have thrived with this group of ballhanders we have now. It will also be interesting how the coaches son at Davidson does stepping out of his dad's shadow. I think of John Thompson's son who lived Georgetown his whole life, but could not keep it rolling there.

I am just looking forward to this year, I'm excited about the guys I saw and their potential. Let's hope the staff and players get on the same page and put together a great season.