121Merrimac Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 That was a good pre-game to watch... given Toledo and Ohio are UB's next two scheduled opponents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big 4 Hoops Blogger Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 15 hours ago, Erie County said: Ohio is getting rocked at home right now, good. I dont think they are that good besides Preston Sears, BVP and Carter make a solid top 3. One bad game doesn’t define a team. They’re still 14-3 with a win over Belmont and all of their losses against Top 100 opponents including two Top 25 teams. I think that game says more about Toledo. IMO, they look to be the top team in the MAC at this moment. We’ll see where Ohio and Buffalo stack up when they battle each other. The rest of the league is battling for 4-12. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tee4three Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 32 minutes ago, Big 4 Hoops Blogger said: Sears, BVP and Carter make a solid top 3. One bad game doesn’t define a team. They’re still 14-3 with a win over Belmont and all of their losses against Top 100 opponents including two Top 25 teams. I think that game says more about Toledo. IMO, they look to be the top team in the MAC at this moment. We’ll see where Ohio and Buffalo stack up when they battle each other. The rest of the league is battling for 4-12. Toledo to me is still Toledo. Great regular season team. Maybe this is their year who knows Ohio is just a very very solid team. Very consistent. Very methodical. Very well coached. One of the best teams in the mac I don't know the injury status of carter or wilson(is he still coming back?) But first week of the year I said that Ohio will struggle playing athletic teams and I stand by that. Still believe a match up between UB and Ohio favors UB As of today I feel the mac is Ub's or Toledo to win with Ohio just waiting for a screw up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooleyBull06 Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 MAC power rankings at this point…key phrase…this point: 1)Toledo 2)Ohio 3)UB 4) everyone else. It’s not only a big week for us but a big week for Toledo and Ohio too. All three teams have flaws. It’s about who will improve from now till Cleveland. But for this week the power rankings are subject to change. So far…Toledo has made the biggest statement. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocCas86 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 23 minutes ago, DooleyBull06 said: MAC power rankings at this point…key phrase…this point: 1)Toledo 2)Ohio 3)UB 4) everyone else. It’s not only a big week for us but a big week for Toledo and Ohio too. All three teams have flaws. It’s about who will improve from now till Cleveland. But for this week the power rankings are subject to change. So far…Toledo has made the biggest statement. Proper assessment. This week is huge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big 4 Hoops Blogger Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 (edited) 8 hours ago, Tee4three said: Toledo to me is still Toledo. Great regular season team. Maybe this is their year who knows Ohio is just a very very solid team. Very consistent. Very methodical. Very well coached. One of the best teams in the mac I don't know the injury status of carter or wilson(is he still coming back?) But first week of the year I said that Ohio will struggle playing athletic teams and I stand by that. Still believe a match up between UB and Ohio favors UB As of today I feel the mac is Ub's or Toledo to win with Ohio just waiting for a screw up Rumor on the street is that Dwight Wilson III is out for the year but will get an injury exemption and return next year. There’s also rumblings that BVP could possibly comeback using his COVID year. Sounds like Carter was dealing with extreme cramps and should be fine. It was an issue he dealt with earlier in the season. Toledo was lights out shooting last night. Hard to carry that over into Cleveland but they’re the best team for now. I really think it’s a coin flip between UB/Ohio/Toledo. Edited January 23, 2022 by Big 4 Hoops Blogger 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocCas86 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 (edited) Below is a table showing the percent of points / minutes in conference play coming from top 5 players on the top 5 teams. Not sure who this gives an edge to. Buffalo and Kent have had slightly better production beyond their top 5. Toledo is at the extreme of getting very little from bench. I think have more people involved in scoring could be a good thing, I know that this was a characteristic of Oats' last year, but something that will have to research. Edit: I should caveat does not include today's games. Edited February 20, 2022 by DocCas86 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skrabukes Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, DocCas86 said: Below is a table showing the percent of points / minutes in conference play coming from top 5 players on the top 5 teams. Not sure who this gives an edge to. Buffalo and Kent have had slightly better production beyond their top 5. Toledo is at the extreme of getting very little from bench. I think have more people involved in scoring could be a good thing, I know that this was a characteristic of Oats' last year, but something that will have to research. Surprising stat distribution. I hadn't looked deeply into the other teams' stats, but frequently posts on here read as though UB has little to no bench. While points aren't the only statistic, it's surprising to see that 3/4 of the teams near UB have "less production" (at least in terms of scoring) from the bench. Thanks for the post/info! Other point of note, disappointing that UB has so many fewer minutes as compared with others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocCas86 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, skrabukes said: Surprising stat distribution. I hadn't looked deeply into the other teams' stats, but frequently posts on here read as though UB has little to no bench. While points aren't the only statistic, it's surprising to see that 3/4 of the teams near UB have "less production" (at least in terms of scoring) from the bench. Thanks for the post/info! Other point of note, disappointing that UB has so many fewer minutes as compared with others. Quick digging into 2019 team FWIW: Distribution is not all that different. Of course as you say this isn't the only statistic. For example the 2018-19 team averaged nearly 5 points more per game, and allowed fewer nearly 2 points less per game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocCas86 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 6 hours ago, Erie County said: I have a feel that today alters this. But what this tells me is that 600 less minutes to our top 5 and playing their bench too much. That top 5% would be much higher with minutes on par with the other top 5 teams. Whitesell thinks he has the bench that he did with Oats. It's just not true, hes fallen to have a MAC level bench. Minutes to bench does mean good minutes Sorry I am a little confused. First you can't compare minutes directly as we have played fewer games. I am not saying this year's bench is same quality as Oats' last season. That is why in part we are scoring 5 ppg less. I was wondering if getting more from bench would possibly help Kent and Buffalo. Perhaps they are a little fresher, or have someone step up a little more if someone in top 5 struggles a bit. Are you saying Whitesell should be playing his starters more? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skrabukes Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, DocCas86 said: Sorry I am a little confused. First you can't compare minutes directly as we have played fewer games. I am not saying this year's bench is same quality as Oats' last season. That is why in part we are scoring 5 ppg less. I was wondering if getting more from bench would possibly help Kent and Buffalo. Perhaps they are a little fresher, or have someone step up a little more if someone in top 5 struggles a bit. Are you saying Whitesell should be playing his starters more? Usually come playoff time, doesn't the rotation generally shrink a bit anyway? Fagan and Jones seem to bring a good deal of positives when on the floor. Hardnett finally looks to be relatively healthy again. I know most dislike Brewton here, but he can bring some flash, although a little too much "green light" for me many times. Brock is Brock, giving his best efforts and dives, along with getting big down low. A problem with the bench seems that 3-4 of them play at the same time, causing the "flat line". Is this by design, rest your starters, take a little hit, then bang the fresh full group? Maybe. It has worked for the last 6 games anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skrabukes Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 9 hours ago, DocCas86 said: Quick digging into 2019 team FWIW: Distribution is not all that different. Of course as you say this isn't the only statistic. For example the 2018-19 team averaged nearly 5 points more per game, and allowed fewer nearly 2 points less per game. My surprise was more with the other teams having a higher % of starters minutes/points than ours. 2018-19 bench could've started for most teams in the MAC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skrabukes Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, Erie County said: Yes. I am saying Whitesell should be playing his starters more and should have a shrunk bench to Jones/Fagan, like the teams ahead of them do. Just because you play your bench, doesn't mean you should. Surely the starters are pretty clearly the best options, but with the condensed schedule, playing relatively every other day, maybe he's trying to save them for the final run. I mean, I know they're 20 and in crazy good shape, but the grind of 32-35 minutes every other day could pose issues for Cleveland. I can't say that I disagree with your statement, because sometimes I think we all scratch our heads as to why he or FLJ make a certain substitution/lineup, but that might be their rationale. Surely they see things in practice or matchups in the gameplan/video prep that we don't also. In the end, hopefully another win on Tuesday, no matter who goes out there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocCas86 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Some more stats to put things into perspective. Here are the top MAC coaches based on overall winning percentage with number of tournament appearances. You will note that beside Hurley / Oats / Boals, the other top coaches were in tournament approximately 1 in 4 years. Of course there are other factors to consider - for example the MAC ranking may vary over the different periods, but it seems like winning MAC tournament 1 in 4 years puts you in pretty good company in MAC history. Trying to add a little historic perspective. This appears to be Whitesell's best shot, hopefully he takes advantage. You could argue that he had tailwinds following Oats and we will have to see beyond Williams / Segu years to truly evaluate him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
121Merrimac Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 25 minutes ago, DocCas86 said: … Trying to add a little historic perspective… In that case, you might be interested in the following investigation I did just before Hurley arrived. https://www.ubbullrun.com/2014/3/26/5552030/14-years-a-drought?_ga=2.102214920.848640035.1644009622-520710113.1644009622 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocCas86 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 (edited) 46 minutes ago, 121Merrimac said: In that case, you might be interested in the following investigation I did just before Hurley arrived. https://www.ubbullrun.com/2014/3/26/5552030/14-years-a-drought?_ga=2.102214920.848640035.1644009622-520710113.1644009622 I am out of reactions but thank you for sharing...a good additional perspective that seems aligned with what I am seeing...depending on how many teams are in the conference, you can kind of infer what a good program is. I took a moment to look at your data - and it is consistent with stats on top coaches, the top team wins about 30% of time. Edited February 20, 2022 by DocCas86 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocCas86 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Erie County said: Yes. I am saying Whitesell should be playing his starters more and should have a shrunk bench to Jones/Fagan, like the teams ahead of them do. Just because you play your bench, doesn't mean you should. Thanks for clarification...as I indicated hadn't really investigated any correlation with success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skrabukes Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, Erie County said: The MAC has moved below the MAAC to the 18th best conference. That will factor in its overall seed as well. Respectfully, it doesn't matter a hill of beans. If/when Iona wins, they'll get whatever seed they deserve based on their resume, not based on Canisius or Niagara's ranking. If Canisius wins, somehow, some way (0.00001% chance) they'll get a 15-16 seed, regardless of the fact that their conference is now "higher" than the MAC. Same goes for the MAC. if UB, Toledo, Ohio, Kent win, they'll get around a 13. If somehow BG wins 3 out of nowhere, the ranking of the conference won't matter, only their middling at best record. Regardless, one ranking point up or down, based on some sort of stats means very little in the grand scheme of things. Most of the leagues get 1 bid and they'll fill in the 12-16 lines, as they always do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire17 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 If UB wants to make their bench not only look better, but actually more imposing, it should bench Segu and start Brewton. It would definitely add to the mystique as a “Team that can dig itself out of a hole”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooleyBull06 Posted February 20, 2022 Author Share Posted February 20, 2022 6 hours ago, Erie County said: Yes. I am saying Whitesell should be playing his starters more and should have a shrunk bench to Jones/Fagan, like the teams ahead of them do. Just because you play your bench, doesn't mean you should. I disagree with this considering we are in the midst of 6 games in 12 days. Plenty of season left. No need to only play 7 guys and it isn’t March yet. Come the tournament you might see a tightening of the rotation. Or short leashes. But anything is far game in Cleveland. For now…we gotta get there healthy and fresh. Playing guys is vital to team growth. What @skrabukessaid is accurate. The problem is playing 4 reserves at the same time. Can’t have that. Whitesell has to be better at getting guys strategic breaks and using his bench mixed with starters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chet Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 hours ago, Erie County said: The MAC has moved below the MAAC to the 18th best conference. That will factor in its overall seed as well. I was hoping that the MAC would have expanded with WKU and MTSU. It's unfortunate that we are stuck in the MAC as it's currently constructed. Basketball has been brutal this year. Other then the Akron, Kent, Ohio and Toledo, the conference is absolutely dreadful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire17 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Holy cow! Akron is up on Ohio by 18 with 1:30 left in the first half! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UBinMD Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 31 minutes ago, squire17 said: Holy cow! Akron is up on Ohio by 18 with 1:30 left in the first half! Ohio might be in trouble on this one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluebird96 Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, UBinMD said: Ohio might be in trouble on this one Ohio has cut the lead to 14 with under 8:00 left. But only 18 rebounds for the Bobcats thus far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 IF UB and BG win out, UB is your new #1 seed. You are all now Falcons fans 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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