Jim Whitesell and UB Part Ways

[dutchcountry7]

On 12/19/2021 at 7:00 PM, Big 4 Hoops Blogger said:

It was literally an outside hire that ignited the Buffalo program with Bobby Hurley. I get what you're saying and you're mostly correct but don't dismiss it as something that never happens or works out.

This comment really struck me.

It's still mind blowing to me that we have a team that is a legitimate contender for an NIT at-large bid right now and people act like the program is dead.  We literally have, and have had, a better team than Bobby Hurley has at Arizona State...  And somehow we think going out and finding another coach like him would be a panacea that ensures we don't have the feeling we have right now following the loss.

Either you think that Buffalo is a better job than Arizona State or even Bobby Hurley isn't able to sustain the success we like to attribute to Bubbly Hurley.  

Either way, I think it is telling.

[Jeseph]

2 minutes ago, dutchcountry7 said:

we have a team that is a legitimate contender for an NIT at-large bid.

Are we?

2 minutes ago, dutchcountry7 said:

the success we like to attribute to Bubbly Hurley.

I attribute the spark and the path to Nate Oats. Hurley was a big-name splash that produced recruiting profile and through family connections led to one of the best coaches in America.

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

24 minutes ago, dutchcountry7 said:

Again, that's the point.

Landing a solid outside hire is rare.  Everyone plans for an improvement when they go outside and most programs do not land a great hire that is "better than should be at their program" which are the coaches that get hired away.

You're using the rare success as proof that UB does it.  But the only thing that is more rare than making a great "homerun" hire is doing it back to back.  

I know you think that we are a destination job and we thought so too.  We thought as an AAU member, state flagship, recent history of success, and being in a respected conference that we would be able to go outside and find a great hire.  That's why we engaged a firm.  And after the due diligence, there weren't options available that felt like they were a slam dunk or would provide the spark needed to win over the team.  It was clear it would be a rebuild if we went outside and it wouldn't be with a coach that would be expected to have a quick turnaround due to their name recognition.

This is why the program made the wise decision to go with an internal hire.  UB is a strong program and one of the best in the MAC--a strong conference.  I know we have had some losses that we don't want to see but that doesn't change the calculus.  We are in a better position as a result.

If the program is unable to reload in the next year or two then we would look for a change but the hire has been successful and it has helped make the program more attractive. 

The reality is that the job will be more desirable for the next hire than it was when Whitesell was hired.  It doesn't matter if that hire happens in two years or ten years.  It will be more desirable because the success will be through three separate head coaches.  And if it is in 10 years it would mean that the program continues to perform well and the staff reloads.

This would not have been true if we went outside, lost all the players, had a few subpar seasons while trying to rebuild and peaked as a middling MAC team before we parted ways with the outside hire.

The hire was absolutely the right move.  And the constant desire to live in the past and rehash the possibilities and dreams of making the perfect hire undermines the program.  

The "want to be more" refrain and acting like you need to make irrational risks to be great is a sign of someone that doesn't believe the program is actually good.  When you feel like the only way to succeed is to engage in risky behavior is a tell-tale sign that you don't actually believe the program is positioned to succeed on its own merits.  It is the admission that you're willing to take long shots that have a high probability of failure in hopes of hitting it big.  That isn't a strategy and it isn't how you build a program.

The athletic department made the investment.  They engaged an outside firm to put additional resources into the search to be able to turn up any and all possible candidates.  They made the investment to find the best option and put in an extensive search.  And after making that investment they made the wise decision to go with an internal hire.  

People like to act like that is a sign of a failure but it was a very wise decision and showed great strength by the athletic department.  The easy thing to do would be to make a hire from the outside pool of candidates.  There was a pressure to justify the spending on the search firm and this is something some here like to complain about.  But the sunk cost fallacy is a fallacy for a reason.  You're not merely paying to find an outside hire.  You're paying to have a better understanding of where your program sits in the marketplace and how your internal candidate compares to options you may not have known were options.  The fact that they engaged the search firm, interviewed candidates, discussed compensation, and weighted expected benefits (and risks) of hires and then decided to not use any of the candidates they were able to generate through the firm shows that the due diligence was performed properly and all of the factors were considered.  It would be easy to feel like you had to justify the search firm and their expense and by default had to settle for a candidate through that process.  But that is how a program that isn't willing to invest operates.

The risk assessment is how you win long term.  This is no different than business or investments.  The ones that can't accurately price in risk are the ones that aren't around long term.  UB needs to build for the long term.  There are many programs with successful coaches hired away that don't keep the success going.  The programs that keep the success going are the rare ones.  The ones that are gutted and rebuild are the norm.

Thanks for the response, Mark Alnutt

[Jeseph]

2 minutes ago, Erie County said:

I think because Jerry Sullivan or someone i can't remember said Segu was thinking about leaving. I saw an article a few days ago actually. But IDK man, we can't be so sure what would have happened.

Of course they were thinking about it. And I give Whitesell credit for convincing them to stay (because, well, we hired him).

I just don't know how we assume he was the only one that had a chance at that?

[UB92]

26 minutes ago, dutchcountry7 said:

Again, that's the point.

Landing a solid outside hire is rare.  Everyone plans for an improvement when they go outside and most programs do not land a great hire that is "better than should be at their program" which are the coaches that get hired away.

You're using the rare success as proof that UB does it.  But the only thing that is more rare than making a great "homerun" hire is doing it back to back.  

I know you think that we are a destination job and we thought so too.  We thought as an AAU member, state flagship, recent history of success, and being in a respected conference that we would be able to go outside and find a great hire.  That's why we engaged a firm.  And after the due diligence, there weren't options available that felt like they were a slam dunk or would provide the spark needed to win over the team.  It was clear it would be a rebuild if we went outside and it wouldn't be with a coach that would be expected to have a quick turnaround due to their name recognition.

This is why the program made the wise decision to go with an internal hire.  UB is a strong program and one of the best in the MAC--a strong conference.  I know we have had some losses that we don't want to see but that doesn't change the calculus.  We are in a better position as a result.

If the program is unable to reload in the next year or two then we would look for a change but the hire has been successful and it has helped make the program more attractive. 

The reality is that the job will be more desirable for the next hire than it was when Whitesell was hired.  It doesn't matter if that hire happens in two years or ten years.  It will be more desirable because the success will be through three separate head coaches.  And if it is in 10 years it would mean that the program continues to perform well and the staff reloads.

This would not have been true if we went outside, lost all the players, had a few subpar seasons while trying to rebuild and peaked as a middling MAC team before we parted ways with the outside hire.

The hire was absolutely the right move.  And the constant desire to live in the past and rehash the possibilities and dreams of making the perfect hire undermines the program.  

The "want to be more" refrain and acting like you need to make irrational risks to be great is a sign of someone that doesn't believe the program is actually good.  When you feel like the only way to succeed is to engage in risky behavior is a tell-tale sign that you don't actually believe the program is positioned to succeed on its own merits.  It is the admission that you're willing to take long shots that have a high probability of failure in hopes of hitting it big.  That isn't a strategy and it isn't how you build a program.

The athletic department made the investment.  They engaged an outside firm to put additional resources into the search to be able to turn up any and all possible candidates.  They made the investment to find the best option and put in an extensive search.  And after making that investment they made the wise decision to go with an internal hire.  

People like to act like that is a sign of a failure but it was a very wise decision and showed great strength by the athletic department.  The easy thing to do would be to make a hire from the outside pool of candidates.  There was a pressure to justify the spending on the search firm and this is something some here like to complain about.  But the sunk cost fallacy is a fallacy for a reason.  You're not merely paying to find an outside hire.  You're paying to have a better understanding of where your program sits in the marketplace and how your internal candidate compares to options you may not have known were options.  The fact that they engaged the search firm, interviewed candidates, discussed compensation, and weighted expected benefits (and risks) of hires and then decided to not use any of the candidates they were able to generate through the firm shows that the due diligence was performed properly and all of the factors were considered.  It would be easy to feel like you had to justify the search firm and their expense and by default had to settle for a candidate through that process.  But that is how a program that isn't willing to invest operates.

The risk assessment is how you win long term.  This is no different than business or investments.  The ones that can't accurately price in risk are the ones that aren't around long term.  UB needs to build for the long term.  There are many programs with successful coaches hired away that don't keep the success going.  The programs that keep the success going are the rare ones.  The ones that are gutted and rebuild are the norm.

This is one of the most delusional posts I have read in the 20 (?) years on ubfan...and that includes the many "in my opinion" run-on-sentences of a certain super fan of buffalo.   Holy cow!  If I didn't know your history on this board, I would confuse it for satire.

 

 

[dutchcountry7]

21 minutes ago, Jeseph said:

Why is everyone so sure our roster would have left?

We have been told that players like(d) Whitesell but it's also somehow a foregone conclusion that a new coach had no chance to arrive and earn buy-in?

Yes.  They would have left.  

It was well discussed.  

The kids get to pick their coach and program by transferring.  So they each could find the perfect situation for themselves.  With each transfer out there is an exponentially higher probability of others leaving.  No one wants to be the one staying around in a rebuild.

You think that a new coach can put on a sales pitch and convince them that he is the best one to lead them.  But if they are listening to sales pitches they open it up to hear from everyone.

The whole team bought in on Whitesell.  He is the reason they are still around.  It isn't because they love the UB campus, the weather, the food, or whatever attribute we want to try to claim keeps kids around.  Personal relationships are the biggest selling point.  

 

 

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

14 minutes ago, dutchcountry7 said:

This comment really struck me.

It's still mind blowing to me that we have a team that is a legitimate contender for an NIT at-large bid right now and people act like the program is dead.  We literally have, and have had, a better team than Bobby Hurley has at Arizona State...  And somehow we think going out and finding another coach like him would be a panacea that ensures we don't have the feeling we have right now following the loss.

Either you think that Buffalo is a better job than Arizona State or even Bobby Hurley isn't able to sustain the success we like to attribute to Bubbly Hurley.  

Either way, I think it is telling.

I have never said the UB program was dead and I’ve never claimed they were on the level of P5 schools.

You obviously have some connections inside UB athletics and use that to talk down to the rest of the posters on UB Fan that disagree with your opinion.

I didn’t attend UB. In fact, I went to Ohio University, a school that went through the same thing Buffalo is going through now. I’ve talked to those connected with their program on where things went wrong after John Groce left and formulate my own opinions.

I have multiple connections inside UB and know some of my opinions are shared by others close to the program so please don’t dismiss my thoughts as “fantasy.” That’s insulting and dismisses the fact that many others on this board have valid opinions and know what they’re talking about as well.

Edited December 21, 2021 by Big 4 Hoops Blogger

[dutchcountry7]

15 minutes ago, Big 4 Hoops Blogger said:

I have never said the UB program was dead and I’ve never claimed they were on the level of P5 schools.

You obviously have some connections inside UB athletics and use that to talk down to the rest of the posters on UB Fan that disagree with your opinion.

I didn’t attend UB. In fact, I went to Ohio University, a school that went through the same thing Buffalo is going through now. I’ve talked to those connected with their program on where things went wrong after John Groce left and formulate my own opinions.

I have multiple connections inside UB and know some of my opinions are shared by others close to the program so please don’t dismiss my thoughts as “fantasy.” That’s insulting and dismisses the fact that many others on this board have valid opinions and know what they’re talking about as well.

Again, you're wrong on so many accounts.  

I have no doubt you talk to some people at Ohio and UB.  That doesn't mean you have an understanding of the situations.  And you're wrong about me.

[Jeseph]

6 minutes ago, dutchcountry7 said:

Yes. They would have left.  

It was well discussed.

You know this isn't a fact but ok.

[UB92]

3 minutes ago, Big 4 Hoops Blogger said:

I have never said the UB program was dead and I’ve never claimed they were on the level of P5 schools.

You obviously have some connections inside UB athletics and use that to talk down to the rest of the posters on UB Fan that disagree with your opinion.

I didn’t attend UB. In fact, I went to Ohio University, a school that went through the same thing Buffalo is going through now. I’ve talked to those connected with their program on where things went wrong after John Groce left and formulate my own opinions.

I have multiple connections inside UB and know some of my opinions are shared by others close to the program so please don’t dismiss my thoughts as “fantasy.” That’s insulting and dismisses the fact that many others on this board have valid opinions and know what they’re talking about as well.

I am 1000% convinced that dutchcounty7 is an employee of athletics or has personal/professional connections to UB athletics (or both).  This poster swoops in and posts in multiple threads "flying the flag" as if it were one of their job responsibilities.    All you have to do is check their posts -- a history exists.  

Yes...the condescending part is very consistent!   As is taking many points out of context to create the straw man that is beaten up time and again.

[dutchcountry7]

18 minutes ago, UB92 said:

This is one of the most delusional posts I have read in the 20 (?) years on ubfan...and that includes the many "in my opinion" run-on-sentences of a certain super fan of buffalo.   Holy cow!  If I didn't know your history on this board, I would confuse it for satire.

 

 

Come with evidence.

Name the mid-major programs that had success leading to their head coach being poached, and continued that success through an outside hire.

I want the evidence to support this claim that is made around here and seems to be widely accepted.

 

[dutchcountry7]

15 minutes ago, UB92 said:

I am 1000% convinced that dutchcounty7 is an employee of athletics or has personal/professional connections to UB athletics (or both).  This poster swoops in and posts in multiple threads "flying the flag" as if it were one of their job responsibilities.    All you have to do is check their posts -- a history exists.  

Yes...the condescending part is very consistent!   As is taking many points out of context to create the straw man that is beaten up time and again.

You're mistaken.

[TheWolff]

Really enjoying this discussion. I'm thankful the Bulls as a program overall have these expectations and the need for greatness now year in and year out.

 

If Whitesell isn't the guy they'll surely move on to someone who is! Horns!

[Tee4three]

22 minutes ago, Erie County said:

I think because Jerry Sullivan or someone i can't remember said Segu was thinking about leaving. I saw an article a few days ago actually. But IDK man, we can't be so sure what would have happened. 

2022 roster - Hardnett, Skogman, Mading, Blocker, Perry, and Williamson. EEEEKKKKkkkkkkk. They dont have a name/star/high-end player let alone a starting lineup.

I'm gonna sound like my usual nut job self but I really like the freshman class that was brought in this year of jones/blocker/mading/Williamson

Add in skogman, hardnett, perry and brock. I think that a more team oriented blue collar team 

 

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

8 minutes ago, Tee4three said:

I'm gonna sound like my usual nut job self but I really like the freshman class that was brought in this year of jones/blocker/mading/Williamson

Add in skogman, hardnett, perry and brock. I think that a more team oriented blue collar team 

 

I like this class as well. Mading and Blocker are raw but have high upside. Jones has held his own. We’ll have to wait and see on Williamson.

[Kevin]

When I created this thread, I never thought we would make it to page 45. Here we are. I hope you all have been well. I miss a lot of my guys here @961819, @Big 4 Hoops Blogger, @Jesephand others. I appreciate all the tweets and passion with UB sports. 

I just want what's best for the UB basketball program which is now considered a great mid major. Is it Arizona State? No. Is it one that should see the tournament at the very least every other year? Yes. They have the resources and ability to do so. 

I can't say who or who isn't within the department on this board. I can say with 100% certainty that they are on here. You can take my honest word for it. 

The Canisius loss to Reggie stung. We can tell by the activity here, my DMs, and our social accounts. 

[clodney]

57 minutes ago, dutchcountry7 said:

Landing a solid outside hire is rare.  

 

Yet Danny White hired Felisha Legette-Jack, Bobby Hurley, and Lance Leipold. Not to mention, a controversial internal promotion of Nate Oats...

[dutchcountry7]

14 minutes ago, clodney said:

Yet Danny White hired Felisha Legette-Jack, Bobby Hurley, and Lance Leipold. Not to mention, a controversial internal promotion of Nate Oats...

Yes.  Danny White has had an amazing eye for hires.  Which is why he has been poached away by both of his last two jobs.

This was his strength. 

But it is also like saying Nate Oats built a top-20 program at Buffalo so that should be expected of every coach.  

The skill that White had was not in finding the best coach but in finding the best coach for a specific program.  Some coaches don't work at certain schools and in certain environments.  White did well here.  He was like Oats in his ability to perform in that regard.

I have a lot of criticisms of Danny White as an athletic director at UB.  (Which I have shared and there is no point in rehashing.)  But he has shown to be a rockstar in his hiring of coaches.  Honestly, he is probably better suited in leading a search firm to find head coaches.  He would could be paid handsomely and would knock it out of the park.

White has a rare talent.  Which is why he is being paid $2 Million a year by Tennessee.  Pointing to him is like pointing to Jack Welch, Lee Iacocca, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos, or Elon Musk and saying: "We just need to hire a CEO like those companies had."  Simple enough, right? 

[yussi1870]

1 hour ago, dutchcountry7 said:

... the program made the wise decision to go with an internal hire.  UB is a strong program and one of the best in the MAC--a strong conference.  I know we have had some losses that we don't want to see but that doesn't change the calculus.  We are in a better position as a result.

If the program is unable to reload in the next year or two then we would look for a change but the hire has been successful and it has helped make the program more attractive. 

The reality is that the job will be more desirable for the next hire than it was when Whitesell was hired...

You say the program made a wise decision. That will be based on results. So far it is not looking good.

You say the MAC is a strong conference. Maybe it was in years past when it was a multiple bid conference. Now? I'm not sure the MAC is better even than the MAAC.

You say there is patience to wait a year or two. Can we afford those delays? Isn't the writing on the wall?

You say the job will be more desirable after failure. Why?

[DooleyBull06]

We need some basketball rather than personal attacks. Can the team scrimmage themselves and live stream it?

[Gxtrex]

1 hour ago, DooleyBull06 said:

We need some basketball rather than personal attacks. Can the team scrimmage themselves and live stream it?

So what are your thoughts on Brock coming in as a coach? 😅

[DooleyBull06]

29 minutes ago, Gxtrex said:

So what are your thoughts on Brock coming in as a coach? 😅

Those who can’t do, teach. Right? Something like that? Lol

[Jeseph]

57 minutes ago, Gxtrex said:

So what are your thoughts on Brock coming in as a coach? 😅

Let's see:

✅ Older than many in his position
✅ Popular with the current roster
✅ A good guy
✅ Positive presence on the bench and in practice
✅ Already with the team
✅ Uninspiring performance throughout a long career
✅ Probably less expensive than many

Sounds like our kind of hire!

[dutchcountry7]

3 hours ago, yussi1870 said:

You say the program made a wise decision. That will be based on results. So far it is not looking good.

Top-100 team.  Winning record.  75% of losses by one possession.  Top ranked team in the conference.  You can be disappointed and want more but those are not bad results.

I can assure you that the programs you want to schedule in the future and the events that you want the team to get invited to are looking at those results and are confident that UB is a solid program.

 

3 hours ago, yussi1870 said:

You say the MAC is a strong conference. Maybe it was in years past when it was a multiple bid conference. Now? I'm not sure the MAC is better even than the MAAC.

A conferences are not judged by how good the top team is in the conference.

The metric most commonly used by programs for ballparking competitive level is KenPom.  It's an easy metric for people to follow and is made public. 

Power Conference teams tend to look at the number of Top-100 teams in a conference when judging the strength of the conference.  Mid-Majors tend to look at the number of Top-150 teams.

When you're talking about at-large bid teams they aren't judged by their conference but by their own merit.  This is a point many people don't seem to understand.  Gonzaga isn't considered a WCC team.  They are simply considered a Top-20 team which is why they can get good games. 

The reason conferences are considered by these levels is because this is what teams in those tiers consider acceptable challenging games.

You're focused on a team like Iona and think that they dictate the strength of the conference.  They don't.  No one who does scheduling and considers conference strength looks at conferences that way.  

They look at the MAAC and see that there are two teams in the Top-150 which means that winning the regular season or conference tournament means those are your challengers.  They look at the MAC and see that there are five teams in that range that could challenge.  Yes, upsets by teams outside of that range happen but the

The MAC is considered significantly better than the MAAC.

I am sure that doesn't make much sense but it is important to remember that MTEs are often scheduled blind.  We played in the Cancun Challenge this year so I will give that as an example. 

We committed to play in the event, not to play against any specific teams.  The event coordinator has complete control over the assignment of games and selection of teams.  But what they do communicate are the conferences they are working with and negotiating with.  It is common for events to work with the same tier of teams every year.

We were likely told that they were in talks with also securing a team from the Atlantic 10, CUSA, Southland, Missouri Valley Conference.  So while we didn't know the teams we would play we had an idea of the tier of the team and the type of teams that they would be accustomed to playing during the year.

We ended up in a bracket with Saint Louis from the Atlantic 10 (who we didn't play), and played games against Illinois State (MVC) and SF Austin (who moved to the WAC).   The Southland team was better than we might have thought as they were the flagship of the Southland before moving to the WAC.  Illinois State was below what we would expect from the MVC but Saint Louis is one of the best programs in the Atlantic 10.

The MAC does significantly better scheduling than the MAAC.  The MAAC has to sponsor their own events which is how they get into events like the Gotham Classic and Orlando Invitational.  The MAAC sponsors those and puts money into them.  The MAC doesn't sponsor any events but we get invites.

3 hours ago, yussi1870 said:

You say there is patience to wait a year or two. Can we afford those delays? Isn't the writing on the wall?

You say the job will be more desirable after failure. Why?

Yes, there is no reason to act.   

In the last 15 years Buffalo, despite having four different head coaches the team has only been outside the top-150 two times, with the most recent time being 10 years ago, in 2003.  The program has remained in the level that mid-majors consider a strong and stable program--regularly inside the top-100.  

The equation now is very different than it was just a few years ago.

This is why we are just now getting good games.  UC Irvine, North Texas, Western Kentucky are big games.  Those are solid teams that Hurley and Oats could not get scheduled.  They were not able to schedule anticipated top-100 teams.  And we've won those games and done it on the road.

Mid-majors struggle with scheduling because of the risk of turmoil.  So few programs sustain success.  The boom and bust cycle is common in mid-majors.  Many mid-majors find success but very few of them sustain it at a conference level let alone at a national level (as judged by overall rank among D1 programs).  Stability long term is the sign of a strong program--which is very different than a strong team which is more fleeting.

This is what makes a job attractive.

And the job wasn't as attractive as many think when Oats left.

There were a lot of coaches that were skittish about UB.  School with competing football interest... located in a location that doesn't have local recruits so you have to travel for recruits... Mid-major with a mid-major budget but one of the better mid-major conferences so can be tougher to get to the NCAA tournament which is the easiest way to attract power conference offers...  The high expectations after following Oats which makes it hard for a coach to be viewed as a success and can stunt a career for a young motivated coach looking to rise through the ranks.  (Which is exactly what we are seeing in this discussion.)

It was understood by many candidates that they would struggle to keep the team together as it was the first off season with the new transfer portal that made it much easier for kids looking to transfer to find quality suitors. and the talented Mid-Major players were expected to be very valuable for power conference teams looking to fill holes in their lineup.

Now, I want to preface this by saying that I don't accept the premise that the program is destined for failure but I think it is is important to discuss contingencies when you are assessing risk and looking at possible outcomes.  This is a worthy discussion.

Every coach and every program can have bad games and bad seasons.

The program is one of the better mid-major programs.  But if the program were to struggle the next few years (for more than a year) then there is no doubt a change would be made.  But at that point, there would be a lot more interest in the position.  The track record of success through four coaches, the ability to keep players from transferring out in the modern area, the ability to schedule quality teams and getting considered for quality events, and not following one of the top coaches in college basketball but rather being viewed as someone to save the program is a much more welcoming environment for a coach.

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by dutchcountry7

[ChubbyHubby]

I've gotta retire.  Where the heck do you guys get all of this time?