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Reflecting On The 2023/2024 Men's Season And Discussing The Future.


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25 minutes ago, UBlearns said:

Truthfully fellas, I'm not particularly optimistic.

I understand that in this transfer portal era it's entirely possible that the team has 10 new players next year, but the sad fact remains that this team was not competitive for the vast majority of the season.  They lost 20 games by double-digits, including 13 (!) conference losses.  They had no semblance of a cohesive coaching/gameplan scheme.

Coach will get a second season and I accept that, but the entire staff should be on the hot seat as of the beginning of training camp.  I haven't figured out my benchmark yet for next season.  I want to say .500 overall and .500 in the MAC, but this team was not remotely close to either of those benchmarks this season.....and let's be honest, those aren't exactly lofty goals to begin with.

Realistically 7+ conference wins would be a successful season with the current state of the roster. 

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5 hours ago, DaBulls99 said:

You know this for a fact or you’re just talking out of your butt? Such doom and gloom before we have any real info at all. 

Just calling it as it is, buddy. Things don’t look promising.

Edited by MKBullsfan
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3 hours ago, MKBullsfan said:

Just calling it as it is, buddy. Things don’t look promising.

Lots of turnover for sure, maybe not 80% (considering we only rostered 12 this year ) but with the current JR/SRs I'd be surprised to see any return besides Graham.

Of the underclassmen, would be fairly surprised to see Sabol, Fulcher, Wilson, McVeigh, or Williamson hit the portal. So I'll take a slightly more optimistic guess of 50% turnover, leaving lots of room for experienced transfers to come in and support the young returnees. Go Bulls.

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7 hours ago, MDBullsfan89 said:

Lots of turnover for sure, maybe not 80% (considering we only rostered 12 this year ) but with the current JR/SRs I'd be surprised to see any return besides Graham.

Of the underclassmen, would be fairly surprised to see Sabol, Fulcher, Wilson, McVeigh, or Williamson hit the portal. So I'll take a slightly more optimistic guess of 50% turnover, leaving lots of room for experienced transfers to come in and support the young returnees. Go Bulls.

I would be happy to see those 5 stay, I would like to see Boldin stay, but we will see. He may not necessarily "need" NIL money compared to others, but if someone else wants him, he will likely go. We were one of a very few that offered him if I remember correctly. I'll give Graham another shot, gotta be tough not thinking you are eligible then being thrown into the fire with a days notice and expect to be at game speed more than halfway thru the season. Given that state, we have room for 7 or 8 (pending Boldin). You can make a lot happen with 7 new guys, if they are the right guys and fit whatever the scheme was intended. I will take a wait and see approach.

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19 hours ago, bullsbball said:

Oh, on the radio post game, UB coaching staff says they have one Commit for next year but it hasn't been made public yet. 

Why would anybody want to come to UB?

UB is a very good university with what can be a solid mid-major program. We just need to find the self aware student atheletes who are good enough at basketball to play D1 at a high level. But know that this is it after 4 years so better get the best education they can. 

 

 

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I was going to start this topic after the game, but then I went out of town...and now I see it has already started and thrived.  

A few thoughts...

  • Has anyone on this board ever complained about UB scoring too many fast break points?  I don't think so, but it was brought up.  
  • One of the things we saw was GH3 trying to play the system he knew at Villanova, but didn't get the guys he needed to do it.  However, he ran that system anyway for most of the season...and it showed.
  • Throughout the season, the 1 v 1 ball and the look of a pick-up game was very evident on the offensive side.  I don't know enough about basketball coaching/coaching staffs to properly diagnose why that was, but I suspect whatever the reason...it isn't a good thing.  As someone mentioned, it was in sharp contrast to the women's team and, of course, to MBB.  In fact, I really can't remember that much 1 v 1 ball in any of our coaches in the last 20+ years (except McCrea, and when you are All-MAC 1st team for 3 years, it is okay!) 
  • The defense broke down alot.  From my eyes, this was the biggest weakness.  Other teams scored so easily so often.  We seemed always a step behind.
  • Someone mentioned that the players, it seemed, didn't really like each other (or looked like they didn't like each other).  When you are losing like they did, it is hard to gel.  Having a new coach, many new players, and less than seasoned assistants, perhaps this was inevitable.  
  • I am not sure how many players we will turnover (outside of graduation), but I suspect it will be a sizeable chunk of the roster.  After all, UB is a known team playing in a decent conference...but ends up 345 NET (surrounded by teams you don't want to be surrounded by).  I suspect many/most players will explore their options elsewhere as scholarship athletes.  
  • I can't say I am optimistic here.  This coach/his staff didn't recruit well/get what they needed last year...and even with that, they (by most measures) underperformed as a team.  So the expectation is that they will now recruit what they need for his system and perform up to par?   They had 3 D1 wins and 27 D1 losses.  That should get you fired, but that won't happen here for a variety of reasons.  I don't even have to see what the roster looks like for November to say that a single-digit win season is exceedingly likely.  Anyone who is thinking a .500 season is in the cards isn't really looking at the facts.  I am sure someone with time can look at 3-win teams during the last 20 years and provide an average win total (with SD) in the following season.  Or 5 win and under teams and look at the win-total change in the last 20 years (year-by-year) to identify any portal outliers.

 

While Championship Week progresses across the country without UB, I will think back to days when people were saying...Gonzaga of the East.

Of course, of the 350 or so D1 teams, I only have one:  Buffalo.  So I bleed blue...and am saddened by the 3-win season as I think about the spring football game next month (and who will be our QB).

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Maybe I’m just old. But to scream the sky is falling in regards to transfers when you hit a bump in the road doesn’t seem like reality. There’s plenty of examples now of guys hitting the portal and not finding a home. To cry like a little baby and say that nobody is going to come back is frankly pathetic. Maybe it ends up that way, but let’s not put the cart before the horse. Again, same could have happened last year when Becky lost her entire coaching staff and the entire recruiting class asked out of their NLI, but we ended up 4th. Not saying it’ll happen that way, but holy crap some of you guys are soft. 

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21 hours ago, bullsbball said:

People complained the past several years that we had so many fast break points. Sure didn’t seem like we had so many this year. This year was a lot of “in-bound the ball, go down the court, try to break the defense”. This team needs to be faster in order to get the “easy” (and more exciting) baskets.

I've been called out twice now for this comment.  A quick forum search, you will find this:

 

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1 hour ago, UB92 said:

One of the things we saw was GH3 trying to play the system he knew at Villanova, but didn't get the guys he needed to do it.  However, he ran that system anyway for most of the season...and it showed.

Educate me. What is the Villanova system (that I just witnessed at UB this year)? What type of guys is GH3 looking for (and didn't find here, yet)?

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This was one of the hardest seasons of UB basketball to watch that I can recall.  Us as fans and these coaches and players all need to do some self reflection and make some hard decisions this offseason.  I have been a huge fan of this team since I attended UB in 1995.  I have watched every game and I have supported the team religiously.  I make an annual trip to Buffalo each year from Maine to watch the Bulls in person.  I attended the final three home games last week.  I felt the game day experience has been improved slightly from last year.  The band was spot on for all three of these games!  The crowds were disappointing but that is to be expected for weekday games for a team with 4 wins on the season.  I did attend the girls game on Wednesday and was impressed with the crowd for this game.  Becky Burke has something brewing with this girls team.  KLW and Alexis Davis are going to be superstars in this conference!  Future is bright for the girls.

The coach was in a tough spot with this men's team.  He painted himself into a corner when he allowed both Chatman and Adams to return.  They are not his type of players and do not fit his system.  Chatman and Adams let this team down by being selfish and lacking effort especially on the defensive end.  Chatman played hard but was the most selfish player I have seen at UB since maybe Zid.  He came here to play with his high school teammate Curtis Jones and coach Whitesell, both of whom left, hence he lacked motivation to do as he was asked.  He chose to do as he pleased and it hurt this team tremendously.  Don't get me wrong he played hard but he only cared about his stats and not the success of the team.  He was more concerned about not getting hurt then he was whether this team won or lost.  If you pump fake he would jump out of his shoes.  He got himself out of position all season long by trying to block a shot that would result in an easy basket.  If I am ranking UB players with worst defensive ability he is definitely in the top 5.  He spent the entire season taking ill advised shots.  His game is to use his strength and back down his opponent and try to get to the line using his athleticism.  Sadly he rarely took this approach instead choosing a contested three that he shot under 25.7% at.  He is a great athlete that could have done much more on the glass then he did but he did.  This team really needed help in rebounding.  I am so happy this bozo is leaving us, our program is much better for it.  His lazy running up the court or complaining to an official constantly and terrible attitude will not be missed.  Watching him in person on the final game versus NIU was sickening.  He is the opposite of blue collar basketball.  Honestly I am shocked the coach allowed his behavior all season.  As mentioned above the downfall was letting him return, coach was in a tough spot as he clearly was not listening to what the coaching staff was preaching.  Adams let this team down even more than Chatman did this year.  It is mind blowing how poorly he shot the ball all season long.  His shot has no arc what so ever.  Its flat and barely gets over 10 feet high.  He has flawed mechanics that at this point cannot be fixed.  field goal% for year under 40%, 3 point percentage 22.8%.  Those are atrocious!  His shot selection is terrible.  The coaching staff was trying to develop an offense with lots of ball movement, but that was impossible with Adams on the floor.  The ball stops when it gets to him every time.  GO back and watch film, every time he catches the ball he jab steps and puts ball down in front of him.  Yes, he lead the team in assists, I get it, but his game is not conducive to the type of offense the coach was trying to run.  He is a selfish player and he showed it all season long.  As we all know this team needed help on the glass, poor JO was on an island all season long with not much help.  Adams, like Chatman, could have been the help we needed.  But again he is too lazy to take this on constantly.  I have never seen the amount of lazy turnovers that Adams consistently produced this season.  He and Chatman combined for a staggering total of 169 turnovers on the season.  That's 5.5 a game!  Over the course of the season those two alone resulted in 5 to 6 points a game just with their turnovers! That's god awful and I blame the players for not correcting the issue and I blame the coaches for continuing to play them when they were hurting the team.  I would have benched both of them down the stretch of the season.  Give the minutes to the kids who want to be on the floor and are willing to lay it all on the line for the success of the team.  Look back at the NIU game, once Chatman was kicked out and Adams was benched down the stretch, look at the results, that is when we made our run and made a game of it, cause the kids on the floor may have had less talent but they were working together and were working towards once goal, the success of the team.  Basketball is about one thing, effort and sacrifice, both Adams and Chatman have none of that in their games.  They let this team down so much and this program will be better for all now that they are both finally moving on.

I liked what I saw from our freshman, Boldin and Sabol.  They could be good players at this level if they continue to develop.  The fact they got so many minutes this season in the end will help their development.  I hope they don't transfer.  The fact Boldin dressed for final game versus NIU tells me he is still committed to team.  If he was planning to transfer I don't think he would have any intentions of playing in that final game.  I really liked what I saw from Wilson as he continued to get minutes.  His effort on the defensive end was impressive and he is a remarkable athlete a lot like Boldin.  He needs to shoot 1000 shots a day all summer to improve his jump shot as that will be key to his success.  McVeigh seemed to slowly improve all season.  He looked lost early in the season, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  I liked his ability to rebound and his effort was always really high.  I am hoping this staff can develop each of these players and they remain with the team this off season, but that seems unlikely at this point.  I would love to see Williamson and Fulcher return as I think each of them showed some ability and I think they can be pieces on a successful team. Like Wilson, Fulcher needs to get a ton of shots up this summer and Williamson needs to improve his defensive rebounding.  Jo appears to be gone since he participated in Senior day and that's a bummer for this team in some ways.  I loved his effort and his motor, it never quit.  He is a great rebounded especially on the offensive glass.  His game does not work with the offense this coach is trying to run.  He is not strong enough with the ball on the perimeter to participate in this offense.  They had to sit him down often this season as a result of this.  I really like his game but him moving on is best for this team.  We thank you for all you did for us and we will miss you Jo and wish you all the best.

Where do we go from here?  The coach is likely here to stay since he was hired to build a system.  After Year one I am hesitant and nervous about the future of this program.  I am not convinced this is not the coach for the job but at this point he has to step up and make a big jump in year two.  I think moving on from Whitesells players of Chatman, Adams and Smith is a big first step.  Next he needs to bring in some high level recruits to compete in year two.  These players needs to be able to do the two things this coach came here looking to do, shoot the basketball efficiently and defend.  That is the recipe for success.  I support bringing in transfers or freshmen, which ever this staff feels can help them the most.   Transfers will result in better success next season but I think that is not the end goal.  I think this admin is ok with a slow build, I think this coach came here selling his system and how it takes time to build it.  Year one was painful but here is hoping year two can be better.  If not, I am afraid admin has no choice but to move on.  It saddens me how far this program has fallen since the Oats years but I will remain steadfast in my support of this team and this program.  We will return to those days, lets hope next season is a big step in the right direction.  Go Bulls!

              

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image.png.5e10a9e7aea2159a66e061ce71518bdf.png

Did a little research on 3 pointers made as well as 3 point defense over the years. This year, UB had the fewest made 3-pointers in the 10 years I tracked. Also, the worst 3-point defense. And had only 3 players make 20 or more 3-pointers on the season.

Those 3 players are Sabol, Adams and Chatman.

Chatman was 37-144 for 0.257.
Adams was 34-149 for 0.228.

A lot of 3-point attempts from the "big men".

Who was expected to be our SG? Was Adams expected to be our Point Forward, Shooting Forward and a Forward? Was he expected to be the Jeenathan Williams of this team?

If the Villanova system is 3-pointers, they will need a lot more than Sabol next year.

 

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2 hours ago, UB92 said:

I don't even have to see what the roster looks like for November to say that a single-digit win season is exceedingly likely.  Anyone who is thinking a .500 season is in the cards isn't really looking at the facts. 

Maybe I'm alone here, but what the roster looks like in November will matter a lot to my season predictions. Presutti could pull guys from his Big East connections. Tibbs could find guys from his northeast AAU ties. Cage could land guys he knows from the DMV.

The fact is the "facts" haven't been formed yet. The roster is going to look very different and that's a good thing. I expect some real talent to arrive this spring, like the staff's jobs depend on it.

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1 minute ago, MuchMany said:

Maybe I'm alone here, but what the roster looks like in November will matter a lot to my season predictions. Presutti could pull guys from his Big East connections. Tibbs could find guys from his northeast AAU ties. Cage could land guys he knows from the DMV.

The fact is the "facts" haven't been formed yet. The roster is going to look very different and that's a good thing. I expect some real talent to arrive this spring, like the staff's jobs depend on it.

I would be very happy to be wrong, but you could also put together a scenario for the A's to win the West this year as well.  

My point is that, with the portal and the very likely roster turnover, we are relying on this coaching staff to remake the roster AND improve on all the other challenges people have listed.   It is not even a big ask...it's a huge ask.  

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2 minutes ago, UB92 said:

I would be very happy to be wrong, but you could also put together a scenario for the A's to win the West this year as well.  

My point is that, with the portal and the very likely roster turnover, we are relying on this coaching staff to remake the roster AND improve on all the other challenges people have listed.   It is not even a big ask...it's a huge ask.  

I hear ya, I'm not particularly optimistic either. But the A's can't swap out 50-75% of their roster before the season like UB can as a transfer-era CBB team.

I'm not as worried about the other challenges listed. Recruiting is what matters. Until we have better players, the rest is deck chairs on the Titanic. I was saying the same thing the last few years of JW. Watching other good teams in mid-major conference tournaments, it's clear that we don't have the athletes, we don't have the shooters, we don't have the size, and we don't have the ball handling. That needs to change. The good news is that it can, quickly.

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13 minutes ago, MuchMany said:

Maybe I'm alone here, but what the roster looks like in November will matter a lot to my season predictions. Presutti could pull guys from his Big East connections. Tibbs could find guys from his northeast AAU ties. Cage could land guys he knows from the DMV.

The fact is the "facts" haven't been formed yet. The roster is going to look very different and that's a good thing. I expect some real talent to arrive this spring, like the staff's jobs depend on it.

I agree with you here. All of these guys should have good connections, should be able to find guys. Let's see where we are in April/May as to who they pull in/sign. Only time will tell and moving on from Adams and Chatman is fine with me. We are pretty close to rock bottom. Even if we just find 7-8 guys that are willing to play together and share the ball, we will be better off.

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2 hours ago, MaineBull said:

The coach was in a tough spot with this men's team.  He painted himself into a corner when he allowed both Chatman and Adams to return.  They are not his type of players and do not fit his system.  Chatman and Adams let this team down by being selfish and lacking effort especially on the defensive end. 

Not sure I agree with this statement.  I'm so tired of people saying "bring in his type of players" (still).  GH3 had MANY opportunities to bring in his players through the transfer portal before the start of the season. But instead, he brought in a bunch of freshman guards.  I was under the impression that he "brought in his type of players" THIS season and look what happened. 

If GH3 didn't want them, he wouldn't have played them 1872 minutes combined this season and they scored 42% of the teams total points.

GH3 needs to be more active on the transfer portal.

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1 hour ago, bullsbball said:

GH3 needs to be more active on the transfer portal.

I agree with this.  Two things I recall hearing over the past year:

Last summer - I recall GHIII saying something along the lines that he was not quite prepared for what it took to be successful in the transfer portal.  He did go after Panzo and Gordon.  Panzo shot nearly 37% from three on 7.5 attempts per game and would have improved upon the teams 3 pt shooting.   Another deficiency from the roster was an experienced PG.  UB was mentioned in connection to Kyree Brown, an experienced point guard who average 4 Assists per game from New Hampshire.  It was ultimately determined that he had used up his eligibility. 

Also at some point in the NIU game - they mentioned GHIII will be utilizing the transfer portal more this year.  So I think they are certainly aware that they need to use portal more.

As for execution, one could say he / his staff were not successful last year in the transfer portal and this does not bode well for this year.  Another possibility is that they learned from last year and are better prepared.  As others have stated, I am waiting to see the team he puts together to make assessment, but I do get the pessimism of many on the board.

Edited by DocCas86
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1 hour ago, bullsbball said:

Not sure I agree with this statement.  I'm so tired of people saying "bring in his type of players" (still).  GH3 had MANY opportunities to bring in his players through the transfer portal before the start of the season. But instead, he brought in a bunch of freshman guards.  I was under the impression that he "brought in his type of players" THIS season and look what happened.

You're right. Anyone saying otherwise is coping with the fact that this coaching staff sucks. Imagine actually thinking that Sy Chatman was the major issue on this team. Even if we pretend that he was, is Halcovage being so spineless that he can't just bench him really an excuse for Halcovage?
 

Halcovage's "Guys":

Fulcher - 83.2 ORtg on 22.5% usage
Sabol - 102.3 ORtg on 15.2% usage
Boldin - 101.0  ORtg on 13.7% usage
Wilson - 84.1 ORtg on 14.5% usage
Graham - 62.7 ORtg on 14.0% usage
McVeigh - 86.5 ORtg on 11.1% usage

Halcovage went 6 for 6 on bringing in below average (106.5) offensive performers and that's with them all having to carry small loads (with the exception of Fulcher). Not to mention Famakinde never playing and disappearing off the roster. When people complain about Adams or Chatman the extent of their analysis is "these are the guys that missed the most shots". Which of the Halcovage guys should Adams and Chatman have been deferring more to? The correct answer is none of them. This team was atrocious and the only players that were D1 caliber are likely to be gone next year. If you choose to be baselessly optimistic about transfers or whatever that's fine we can let it play out, but we don't need to do this BS revisionist history that Chatman and Adams were holding this team back from mediocrity, much less greatness.

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48 minutes ago, trueblue32 said:

You're right. Anyone saying otherwise is coping with the fact that this coaching staff sucks. Imagine actually thinking that Sy Chatman was the major issue on this team. Even if we pretend that he was, is Halcovage being so spineless that he can't just bench him really an excuse for Halcovage?
 

Halcovage's "Guys":

Fulcher - 83.2 ORtg on 22.5% usage
Sabol - 102.3 ORtg on 15.2% usage
Boldin - 101.0  ORtg on 13.7% usage
Wilson - 84.1 ORtg on 14.5% usage
Graham - 62.7 ORtg on 14.0% usage
McVeigh - 86.5 ORtg on 11.1% usage

Halcovage went 6 for 6 on bringing in below average (106.5) offensive performers and that's with them all having to carry small loads (with the exception of Fulcher). Not to mention Famakinde never playing and disappearing off the roster. When people complain about Adams or Chatman the extent of their analysis is "these are the guys that missed the most shots". Which of the Halcovage guys should Adams and Chatman have been deferring more to? The correct answer is none of them. This team was atrocious and the only players that were D1 caliber are likely to be gone next year. If you choose to be baselessly optimistic about transfers or whatever that's fine we can let it play out, but we don't need to do this BS revisionist history that Chatman and Adams were holding this team back from mediocrity, much less greatness.

I would attribute the poor results to a lack of overall experience.  However, I feel that the four freshman put up numbers during MAC play that were respectable when comparing them to past UB FR.

Here are how they stack up against past UB FR - using only MAC conference results - as this is a more apples to apples comparison in my opinion:

image.png.8b3580c56a37a031e20e72819efb0fc7.png

Some observations:

  • Only Graves and CJ had higher ORTG than Boldin during their FR year.
  • Sabol's 3 point percentage is comparable to CJ's with almost 2x the attempts.  (Don't get excited I am not saying Sabol is the next CJ! - just that he had good numbers from 3 pt.)
  • McVeigh didn't attempt a lot, but he came on late with his 3 point shooting and shot in excess of 40% in MAC conference play.
  • Wilsons numbers are not great, but I felt he played better down the strecth.

So offensively - I feel like the freshman held their own.

Defensive performance was another story - I don't know how much poor defense is attributable to being FR, vs ability - but I would hope each of them would improve defensively over the next three years.

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Sorted by PRPG! it looks a lot worse though. Usage and quality of opponent are important context when looking at ORtg and PRPG! bakes that in. Scoring is just one part of the picture anyway. BPM highlights that none of the freshmen were particularly productive in any secondary or tertiary category, which is to say that none of them excel at rebounding, assisting, blocking shots, or forcing turnovers. On top of all of that, Sabol's already strong shooting and limited size/athleticism, suggests that he likely has less room for improvement than the Graves/Reese/Jeenathans.

I also disagree with filtering down to just MAC play. 30 games is already a small enough sample and cutting it in half to only compare this year's freshmen against the worst MAC in 20+ years is needlessly adding noise to this analysis. For example, 750 3PA is a general guideline for meaningful sample in regard to 3P% stabilization. McVeigh's 42 3PA on the season obviously doesn't come anywhere near that, so cutting it even further into a 27 attempt sample means even less.

Edited by trueblue32
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Agree with a lot of what's being said in this thread, disagree with some as well. I expected bad, but not historically bad. Not 2 conference wins bad.

Despite the margin of losses, some of those final games looked a lot better than some of the November/December games we watched. My biggest complaint remains that I have no idea what the identity of this team is. Knowing what this season was going to be, that's all I wanted to see. I wanted to see GH3 put his stamp on the team and show us early signs of what would've hopefully been years of trending upwards after a very tough start.

We didn't get that. I have no idea what this team is, I have no idea what GH3 wants his team to be... and that bums me out.

GH3 has a lot to prove this off-season and next season. I want to see improvement. I want to see the guys playing for each other on the floor. I want to see some semblance of what this team is going to be while this guy is our coach.

Eyes on the transfer portal.

Go Bulls 🤘

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Fast Break Points for and against.
image.png.f0555c7220f2314a9daf3e025a5ca528.png
Only had more Fast Break points in 7 of the 31 games and in three of those games, they won. UB averaged only 8.6 FB points per game against an opponent with 13.5 FB points per game.

This team needs to be quicker on the feet and quicker with ball movement.

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23 minutes ago, bullsbball said:

Fast Break Points for and against.
image.png.f0555c7220f2314a9daf3e025a5ca528.png
Only had more Fast Break points in 7 of the 31 games and in three of those games, they won. UB averaged only 8.6 FB points per game against an opponent with 13.5 FB points per game.

This team needs to be quicker on the feet and quicker with ball movement.

Agreed, too many times the ball got to a veteran player and stuck, turning into 1 v the world. Do they keep stats on that? Number of passes per possession maybe? I guess assists per basket made would tell part of the story. For me it was just visual and a feeling watching our offensive possessions.

as someone said earlier FB points are a result of active defense. Not one of our strengths.

Edited by UBinMD
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1 hour ago, UBinMD said:

as someone said earlier FB points are a result of active defense. Not one of our strengths.

Steals by UB this year, 188. Opponent steals again UB 238.  Only the second time in the past 10 years we haven't had more steals than the opponent. The other time was 2016-2017. 

Probably not a good statistic anywhere in the books for this team this year.

Edited by bullsbball
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