Buffalo/WMU - 2/19

[skrabukes]

13 minutes ago, DocCas86 said:

Still a one point game with 11 minutes left.  This will move Toledo's net ranking more than 2.  Upsets / bad days happen.  Toledo will likely win, but shows no team is invincible.

I can't find the thread from earlier, so figured I'd add it here on the Toledo-CMU point. UB is 10-4 and 16-8. They've lost 2 games from their schedule, including a likely win with CMU. Even if they split, they'd be 11-4 and 17-9 with 5 regular season games left and up to 3 MAC games. If they went 4-1 and made it to the finals (which is a plausible outcome), they'd have 23 wins which is right around where the original voting set was that was discussed on here at the beginning of the season. It really is awful that at least the MAC game was not rescheduled.

[TML1000]

Wow...CMU had a wide open drive to the basket to force OT after a Toledo missed ft and instead kicked it out for a 3 but time expired. Unreal.

[Big 4 Hoops Blogger]

Central Michigan just blew a golden opportunity to upset Toledo. Had the ball twice with under 7 seconds left with an opportunity to take the lead and couldn’t get a shot off either time…

[Bluebird96]

3 minutes ago, Big 4 Hoops Blogger said:

Central Michigan just blew a golden opportunity to upset Toledo. Had the ball twice with under 7 seconds left with an opportunity to take the lead and couldn’t get a shot off either time…

Man, that was brutal by CMU. Still need Toledo to blow one more game for UB to have a chance to control our own destiny for the 2 seed.

[skrabukes]

2 minutes ago, Erie County said:

Still so obtuse. Beating the teams they lost to would rise them in metrics. Struggling against WMU doesnt. The fact is they don't beat teams in the top 130. You know, they will face about 5 of them to end the season (2 in regular season and 3 if they happen to win at all in Cleveland). That would for sure rise them into the top 70. The fact is they are 2-6 against teams 130 or better, and you have them winning 5 straight in that category. Whitsell hasn't won 3 games total in the conference tournament, let alone 3 straight. 

JUST WIN IN CLEVELAND is baseless. What metric are you using that they can do that? Besides them getting hot. The reason we use metrics besides 

Who doesn't care about metrics? That's weird. I guess if I was back in 2002 with Reggie, I wouldn't either. 

I'm glad you enjoyed the win over WMU. That's the bar for you. That and minimizing Covid. Unfortunately. the rest of Buffalo doesnt agree with you. I know many who aren't going to games. Did that Canisius or Miami losses satisfy you? Or the 20 point home loss to Ohio? 

Also every one of your posts doesn't have to be about someone firing their coach. As your cocky dunk on anyone who doesn't share my view poster.

Surely you've never played sports before, or even coached them. Athletics isn't about "metrics" or anything like that, it's about competing. This team has been competing at their best all season lately. That's what counts. Not some number that truly means very little when you're in the MAC. This league will get 1 team into NCAAs, every season. They haven't gotten more than that in what, 20 years? Yes, just play your best over the final half of the season, and win in Cleveland. I'd happily take that every single year. Until UB is in some multi-bid league, these numbers mean far less than you'd like. Of course, I wish UB was #1 in every single metric there is, however it's not a reasonable thing. Until that happens, my "obtuse" self will continue to root for and have faith in the players and coaches that we've got, in addition to enjoying the winning streak that the team is on.

[skrabukes]

13 minutes ago, Big 4 Hoops Blogger said:

Central Michigan just blew a golden opportunity to upset Toledo. Had the ball twice with under 7 seconds left with an opportunity to take the lead and couldn’t get a shot off either time…

Brutal. Guy drives within a few feet from the basket with 1 second left against a single defender and stops and passes out to the 3 point line (down by 2) and time runs out. That would've been a huge win for UB if CMU would've beaten UT, giving UB a viable path to passing them. Now they'll still need more help even if they win out, since UB would have 1 less game played and 1 less win.

[Battle of Bull Run]

Fun game to watch!  Great comeback.  Credit to JW at halftime.  Go bulls, keep it going! 

[trueblue32]

24 minutes ago, Erie County said:

JUST WIN IN CLEVELAND is baseless. What metric are you using that they can do that? Besides them getting hot.

You keep saying the word "metrics", but I don't get the feeling that you understand them at all.

haslametrics.com is the only site that I'm aware of that you can generate predictions for matchups, so we'll use it as a ballpark estimate.  Using pythagorean expectation we get:

Akron: 73.6% win probability on neutral

Toledo: 31.4% win probability on neutral

Ohio: 43.4% win probability on neutral

For a MAC tournament 10% win probability.

This is low-balling the win probability given the likelihood of upsets that gives us an easier path and the fact that despite this board bemoaning our bench, we play them more than Toledo or Ohio, which would favor us in this setting.

For reference last year kenpom had us at a 27% probability.

I think the realistic probability for this year is somewhere in between those two numbers, maybe ~20%. To be clear, I don't believe we are favorites going to Cleveland, nor should we be, but the favorites often do not win.  This team also has a tangible chance of winning 3 in Cleveland, which you are dismissing.

You're not going to find any metric that says it's a likelihood that we win the tournament because winning 3 straight games against quality competition is hard.  I'd imagine Gonzaga and Vermont (maybe I'm forgetting someone else) have a tournament win probability of greater than 50%.

1 hour ago, Erie County said:

Whitsell hasn't won 3 games total in the conference tournament, let alone 3 straight.

This is another way of saying that he's .500 in MAC tournament games.  If that's meaningful to you (it shouldn't be) we have a 12.5% chance of winning the MAC tournament.

[trueblue32]

7 minutes ago, Erie County said:

 Good on you for thinking they will go 5-0 in those games and clinch a bid.

They don't have to go 5-0.  They have to go 3-0 in Cleveland.

8 minutes ago, Erie County said:

- They are 0-3 against their current path to the tournament, An average margin of loss of 14 points.

Luckily Toledo doesn't have HCA in Cleveland and Maceo Jack isn't projected to have to play any minutes at center this time against Akron

[Chet]

At the end of the day, Whitesell is an average coach. He seems like a great guy. It's really on Alnutt to enhance investments to athletics by the University and donors. The amount of $$$ being spent on basketball is remarkably greater than the Weatherspoon era, but we still have a ways to go.

[Chet]

Based on what UB is willing to pay their basketball coach, Whitesell is producing on par with that investment. 

[trueblue32]

41 minutes ago, Erie County said:

 They've decreased their odds from 27% (and didn't win) to 10% (a net loss of 17% with one of their best senior classes ever). That is the decrease that plenty on here are upset and feel duped by.

It was some extreme back of the napkin math to address your post asking for a metric that suggested that UB could win 3 in Cleveland. I stated that the more realistic probability is somewhere around ~20%.

You can feel duped by whatever you want, but UB’s tournament win probability isn’t solely predicated on UB’s team strength, but also that of the other top contenders. Last year was the first year since 2015 that the MAC had 3 top 100 teams. Like us Ohio and Toledo brought back most of their cores from those teams, and are similarly rated. All 3 fan bases can say we need to win it all in Cleveland, only 1 is going to be happy (possibly 0).

[trueblue32]

43 minutes ago, Erie County said:

According to Kenpom:

MIA(OH) 71%, NIU 79%, NIU 91%, TOL is 54%, KSU is 44%

Understanding and repeating are different things

[DaBulls99]

Can we enjoy the win?

[SGBull]

2 hours ago, DaBulls99 said:

Can we enjoy the win?

Haha no

[DocCas86]

7 hours ago, Erie County said:

So now we go from me not understanding metrics to you now saying "IT WAS BACK OF THE NAPKIN MATH". After the point was made clear. The 2nd best class in school history is the current 4 seed in the MAC tournament with now a 20% chance to win the MAC (super subjective and that's way too high and you know it). Which is still 7% less than last year. 

The MAC is the 17th rated conference. So now we've gone from being a 1-bid league, to a 1-bid league with the reason your coach was hired to earn the 3rd/4th seed in the said 17th rated conference three years later. Poo poo on "other teams having great teams". Within this same conference, the team won 4 out of 5 year before the current performance of the regime including a ranked year. Total domination by TWO different coaches.

You can say what you want about this year, the big problem is that in 3 weeks, the team has a limited future with the lack of recruiting this staff has done with major misses. That leads to the limited bench performance. It doesn't matter how much they play compared to other teams, its still bad. WMU went on a 19-4 run, mainly when Mballa went out and the bench was in. 

Many can feel disappointed and duped, regardless of it being hard to win in the 17th ranked conference.

First with respect to 4 out of 5 years.  Given his struggles with ASU, I don't think Hurley is a coach with staying power.  He can get you off to a fast start, but I think he wears thin.  Just my perception.  Oats is a very good coach and was able to get championships even when coming in as a lower seed.  

As for conference ranking, what is important is top of conference has not faltered much...Everyone is beating the bottom 7.  Point being it is still just as challenging to win MAC.  

As for recruiting, I still give them an incomplete.  If focus is to pick up 1 to 3 players via transfer, then understandable that they don't have roster filled.

Last, let's see how the last 5 games and more importantly Cleveland unfolds.  This team could be peaking at the right time...the big 3 are the big 3. Skogman and Jack have seemingly settled into their roles.  The bench is giving them just enough.  Let's let it unfold.

[skrabukes]

8 hours ago, Erie County said:

So now we go from me not understanding metrics to you now saying "IT WAS BACK OF THE NAPKIN MATH". After the point was made clear. The 2nd best class in school history is the current 4 seed in the MAC tournament with now a 20% chance to win the MAC (super subjective and that's way too high and you know it). Which is still 7% less than last year. 

The MAC is the 17th rated conference. So now we've gone from being a 1-bid league, to a 1-bid league with the reason your coach was hired to earn the 3rd/4th seed in the said 17th rated conference three years later. Poo poo on "other teams having great teams". Within this same conference, the team won 4 out of 5 year before the current performance of the regime including a ranked year. Total domination by TWO different coaches.

You can say what you want about this year, the big problem is that in 3 weeks, the team has a limited future with the lack of recruiting this staff has done with major misses. That leads to the limited bench performance. It doesn't matter how much they play compared to other teams, its still bad. WMU went on a 19-4 run, mainly when Mballa went out and the bench was in. 

Many can feel disappointed and duped, regardless of it being hard to win in the 17th ranked conference.

This team is 10-4. You make them sound as if they're .500 with the way you present them. 10-4 in some years in the past would've been top 2. It's not as though they're so far off from #1 at this point. Yes, they've lost games earlier in the season to top teams. Let's see what happens over this final stretch. The team is playing very well right now.

Secondly,  the talk of bad recruiting by you is flawed. Their class from last year was huge on paper. Skogman, Mballa were also "big" recruits. Stop pretending these guys don't bring guys in. Rondo and Jeenathan were mediocre as 1st year players. Jones has already improved, Skogman has also. We have little idea what williamson, mading can add in another year. 

My glass is half full while yours tends to be just drops. As Aaron rodgers would say, "relax".

[Chet]

1 hour ago, skrabukes said:

This team is 10-4. You make them sound as if they're .500 with the way you present them. 10-4 in some years in the past would've been top 2. It's not as though they're so far off from #1 at this point. Yes, they've lost games earlier in the season to top teams. Let's see what happens over this final stretch. The team is playing very well right now.

Secondly,  the talk of bad recruiting by you is flawed. Their class from last year was huge on paper. Skogman, Mballa were also "big" recruits. Stop pretending these guys don't bring guys in. Rondo and Jeenathan were mediocre as 1st year players. Jones has already improved, Skogman has also. We have little idea what williamson, mading can add in another year. 

My glass is half full while yours tends to be just drops. As Aaron rodgers would say, "relax".

Good take. Unfortunately we tasted the good life during the golden era and nobody wants to go back to the regular heartbreakers that many of experienced in the Weatherspoon era. Expectations have changed.

[enrique14150]

If results 3-4 years later were solely based on recruiting rankings, why play the games?  There are plenty of highly rated guys who don't do much of anything; some like Xavier Ford, he was a McDonalds All-American in high school but it was quickly evident why he was here - he had a lot of work to do; and some who come in without much fanfare but are hungry players eager to compete - CJ.  I agree with everyone who says recruiting is vital, but the story isn't written in stone - some guys need a couple years to grow physically (Jeenathan); many guys are at the MAC level for a good reason (Skogman because of his heart issue; McCrea because he was 6-7 and not 6-10).  It makes me appreciate what a huge deal it was at the time for Turner Battle to come here.  Most players at our level need a lot of work in their first year or two.

I love the hunger and drive that so many guys have at this level.  Think of CJ and Perkins, or Oliver and Mack on the football side.

Plus, they're 17 or 18 years old making these decisions.  Their minds will change - personally, halfway through my senior year I realized, I kinda want to get out of here.  Chance Robinson was supposed to be a good recruit but he changed his mind during the height of covid; that guy on Western yesterday, Freeman, he supposedly freaked out because we had a season with "only" 20 wins; Malik Zachary, that uh, didn't turn out as planned.

We just don't know how it's going to play out, and that's part of what makes it so interesting.  I'm really not that worried about next year, and not just because my focus is on the next couple weeks.  This program has shown over the years that they can pull in talent and I'm giving them that benefit of the doubt.  With the current atmosphere in college sports with so many transfers, we don't know yet what guys may see this as a big opportunity (as several recently have for the football team).  If I had a dime for everyone over the years, here and elsewhere, who has fretted about "what are we going to do next year when so-and-so is gone???"

I agree with the poster who said Hurley is a name, who makes a lot of noise, and that's about it.  I appreciate that at this level, sustained excellence is tough.  Good coaches and AD's get opportunities up the way and don't stay long.  So you get a lot more peaks and valleys in terms of results over time.  The fact that this program hasn't had too many bad valleys over the last what, 20 years, speaks to the quality of the coaches and players they've continually brought in.  That's what makes me confident about the future.

[squire17]

13 hours ago, Erie County said:

So now we go from me not understanding metrics to you now saying "IT WAS BACK OF THE NAPKIN MATH". After the point was made clear. The 2nd best class in school history is the current 4 seed in the MAC tournament with now a 20% chance to win the MAC (super subjective and that's way too high and you know it). Which is still 7% less than last year. 

 

Check out Teamrankings.com

FWIW, it ranks UB 97th after their win yesterday. It also claims UB has a 22% chance of winning it all in Cleveland. 

[DocCas86]

24 minutes ago, squire17 said:

Check out Teamrankings.com

FWIW, it ranks UB 97th after their win yesterday. It also claims UB has a 22% chance of winning it all in Cleveland. 

That is a little better than some other sites I track, but definitely in line.  The rankings tightened up amongst the top 4.  I think 15%-20% is about right at this point in time.

Edited February 20, 2022 by DocCas86

[John]

17 hours ago, Battle of Bull Run said:

Fun game to watch!  Great comeback.  Credit to JW at halftime.  Go bulls, keep it going! 

Agree. It was a fun weekend with the HOF inductees especially Kourtney Brown and recalling her great play. Fun Saturday seeing both the women and men win their games that they were supposed to win. Another very good game for both Fair and Woolley leading the way again along with the best game out of Christie. Coach Jack continues to try and play more players and try and find the right mix of reserves. Young played quite a few minutes but did struggle with her ball handling and shot selection and not sure if Camp was injured with her limited minutes. The men’s game started out like the recent home loss to Ohio but to their credit overcame their terrible start and did not panic and did not show total frustration. A great sign to see Mballa become the player we all envisioned. Hope to see both teams continue their good play and win the MAC tourney. Go Bulls!!!

[UBinMD]

33 minutes ago, John said:

Agree. It was a fun weekend with the HOF inductees especially Kourtney Brown and recalling her great play. Fun Saturday seeing both the women and men win their games that they were supposed to win. Another very good game for both Fair and Woolley leading the way again along with the best game out of Christie. Coach Jack continues to try and play more players and try and find the right mix of reserves. Young played quite a few minutes but did struggle with her ball handling and shot selection and not sure if Camp was injured with her limited minutes. The men’s game started out like the recent home loss to Ohio but to their credit overcame their terrible start and did not panic and did not show total frustration. A great sign to see Mballa become the player we all envisioned. Hope to see both teams continue their good play and win the MAC tourney. Go Bulls!!!

I think Christie is gaining confidence and using her body to do good things. Would be a good 3rd piece for the tournament 

[skrabukes]

1 minute ago, UBinMD said:

I think Christie is gaining confidence and using her body to do good things. Would be a good 3rd piece for the tournament 

3rd? Fair, Woolley and Summer are definitely the big 3. Christie, Camp, Ade with the combination of Gaba/Wilson makes this team a very tough out. Christie isn't built to bang with the Toledo (really) bigs. Gaba and Wilson are better matchups if/when that game comes to pass. Christie is long and more skilled, but her lean-ness didn't stand a chance the first time against their 2 bigs. Hopefully the 3 of them can run them ragged.

She has played better of late. Her and Mballa coming around at the right time down low!

[DocCas86]

50 minutes ago, Erie County said:

That's a big difference than most. 

they are 123 on Bar and 13.9% to win it. 

Agree that TmRank is most optimistic in terms of UB (and MAC in general), but BT is lowest rank of some reliable ones.    Here is table for top 5 teams.

All of them have Toledo as top ranked and Akron lowest.  Generally the order is Ohio, Buffalo, Kent, but they are all bunched together.  It figures to be a wild ride in Cleveland.